Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

Was at the DMV today. Transferred title to newly purchased 1976 Honda CB750. The original super bike

then I rode home and I guess killed my battery(I had been kick starting successfully) but no luck. Walked 2 miles to batteries plus, got new battery and girlfriend was able to pick me up for ride back to bike, and started right up.
Title transfer 70$
Battery 95$
The pissed look on my face: priceless

go Tesla go! tmrw gonna burn the rest of the shorties up

 

[ZachF]

Elon Musk is now the world's #5 richest man.

Real Time Billionaires

 

[oldTAVguy]

I have a dentist cleaning appointment tomorrow morning. Should I have all my teeth capped with platinum and diamonds glued on, or would it be better to have them all pulled out and go for dentures?

Yes, first caps and diamonds, then have them pulled.

 

[jhm]

You also need to double the number of compressors, cooling systems, safety systems and even storage. All because of the surging nature of the production. Double the amount of equipment, you may double the size for the plant and double the maintenance. Also it may require running during high price times if there is any interruption of production during the cheap power times.

Actually some compressors can run full time. You can compress down low pressure tanks into high pressure tank around the clock. Even so, a lot of capex does get duplicated, but that does not alter point made. Still sunk cost once it is installed.

The thing Nikola investors need to watch out for is that Nikola is underestimating how much capex per truck they need at the outset. They have made the mistake of averaging capex over the three consecutive truck lives as if they could jump immediately to steady state.

 

[Mo City]

While I whole-heartedly agree almost all analysts except those at ARK have missed the opportunity, current price is not really a factor. They could rightly believe that today's prices are being supported solely by S&P 500 inclusion front-running and that the stock will drop a lot afterwards.

I believe TSLA is going to exceed $2500 before the end of Sept. $3500 isn't out of possibility, either. But, does anyone here really think after achieving those prices on the backs on index funds and short sellers we're not going to drop back to the low $1000s?

Why do you believe that? Q3 deliveries will send TSLA over $2,000 permanently. Q3 earnings even higher.
Add to those what Battery Day might accomplish.

Unless there is a significant negative event, series of events or news that affects Tesla's outlook, a fall back to the low $1000s is very unlikely. Some sort of correction is probable but a 50%-70% cliff dive as you propose is nonsense.

 

[smorgasbord]

Nope.

Not if Tesla pumps out 500,000 vehicles this year with those obscene gross margins of theirs, continues profitability adding to their cash cushion, China Giga adds ModelY to their build sheet, Giga Berlin is nearing building completion, Giga Texas building has begun in earnest, and let’s just not even mention the bombshell coming on Battery Day or anything Tesla Solar or Tesla Energy are doing.

Oh, and shhhhhh...as the rest of the auto industry implodes in front of our very eyes.

Feel free to talk yourself out of the goodness coming. Me? Bring it! All multiple thousands of SP. I’m ready to spread the wealth and blow @Unpilot ’s proxy army to smithereens.

I can agree in a bright future for Tesla without believing that the share price will remain on a constant upwards or horizontal trajectory. Tesla's margins may be great, but they're not 20X VW's margins, and VW produces 20X more vehicles (soon to be only 10X, yes). Solar and Energy are the future, too, but they're not going to be big time contributors in the next couple years, and the market rarely looks beyond a few quarters, never a few years.

Why do you believe that? Q3 deliveries will send TSLA over $2,000 permanently. Q3 earnings even higher.
Add to those what Battery Day might accomplish.

Unless there is a significant negative event, series of events or news that affects Tesla's outlook, a fall back to the low $1000s is very unlikely. Some sort of correction is probable but a 50%-70% cliff dive as you propose is nonsense.

The market in TSLA today is like a voting machine. In the long run, it'll act like a weighing machine.

I do not believe today's $1000+ prices ($1650 today) are primarily the result of people seeing a bright future for Tesla in the next 10 years. In my (apparently unpopular) opinion, the price rise over $1000 (about when Q2 deliveries were announced) is fed primarily by S&P 500 inclusion. This is a once in a generation opportunity and it would be wrong to underestimate its impact on today's share price.

EDIT: Corrected to 20X volumes today

 

[Unpilot]

Nope.

Not if Tesla pumps out 500,000 vehicles this year with those obscene gross margins of theirs, continues profitability adding to their cash cushion, China Giga adds ModelY to their build sheet, Giga Berlin is nearing building completion, Giga Texas building has begun in earnest, and let’s just not even mention the bombshell coming on Battery Day or anything Tesla Solar or Tesla Energy are doing.

Oh, and shhhhhh...as the rest of the auto industry implodes in front of our very eyes.

Feel free to talk yourself out of the goodness coming. Me? Bring it! All multiple thousands of SP. I’m ready to spread the wealth and blow @Unpilot ’s proxy army to smithereens.

Small correction here..it is armies..not army.

O and they are invisible.

 

[MC3OZ]

I started thinking about the formula Tesla could use to enter the Indian market, IMO this would also work in places like Australia.

Step 1- Build a roadrunner style factory to make Powerwall, Powerpack and Megapack
Step 2- Make battery packs for Mode 3/Y, S/X - import flat pack cars, and add a locally made battery.
Step 3- Investigate local mining and processing of battery materials.
Step 4- Investigate local sourcing of car parts
Step 5- Possibly build a local factory to make a compact model..

The big opportunity in India is energy storage batteries, and local jobs are a priority.

it is possible that Step 2 above, or some variation of it, can avoid the 100% import duty on imported cars...

My assumption is that a Roadrunner style factory is significantly lower capex, less risky and less complex than a car factory.

If for any reason the project didn't work out the cell/pack making equipment is the expensive part of the project and it could be moved to another country, moving stamping,casting, body shop and paint robots isn't as easy..

Local Indian partners would sell and install the energy storage batteries, but Tesla could own all factories with no local partner..
It is a tricky market, so take it slowly, and keep capex reasonable...

It is likely that the Roadrunner project changes the landscape to the extent that this approach is possible.

if that is true, it is an easier formula for expansion into new markets...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I did have great sex yesterday. I wonder if my wife would believe the two are related?.... "Honey, the longs at TMC are telling me you are needed in the bedroom again!"

Better make sure you notify your Girlfriend about being needed in the bedroom again

 

[jhm]

Elon Musk is now the world's #5 richest man.

Real Time Billionaires

Wow, I didn't know Treavor had $1.1B to lose.

 

[RobStark]

Falcon 9 Rocket by Lego

https://ideas.lego.com/blogs/a4ae09...8d6/post/8d4c5692-9312-42c3-b3ff-75ce60f35936

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wonder how much dumber this look will get on Wednesday after earnings

 

[LTC_RRR]

Last week I gave myself TWO prostate exams (not an easy task) in hopes it would boost the share price by 20% (and I’m only 40).

I was REALLY disappointed when I Iooked at my phone and realized it was Saturday.

You put your finger on the problem, then?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Elon Musk is now the world's #5 richest man.

Real Time Billionaires

Well, he's probably up a couple of dozen spots over the last year.

I'm probably up 500 million spots. So I win.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I can agree in a bright future for Tesla without believing that the share price will remain on a constant upwards or horizontal trajectory. Tesla's margins may be great, but they're not 20X VW's margins, and VW produces 20X more vehicles (soon to be only 10X, yes). Solar and Energy are the future, too, but they're not going to be big time contributors in the next couple years, and the market rarely looks beyond a few quarters, never a few years.



The market in TSLA today is like a voting machine. In the long run, it'll act like a weighing machine.

I do not believe today's $1000+ prices ($1650 today) are primarily the result of people seeing a bright future for Tesla in the next 10 years. In my (apparently unpopular) opinion, the price rise over $1000 (about when Q2 deliveries were announced) is fed primarily by S&P 500 inclusion. This is a once in a generation opportunity and it would be wrong to underestimate its impact on today's share price.

EDIT: Corrected to 20X volumes today

Anything can happen in the markets...TSLA could go to $3k or down to $1k...what we do know is that if it does go down, it'll pick back up eventually based on its bright future and growth. For the HODL crowd, its a given and many of us have been through it. We can all speculate and analyze, but let's enjoy the next 2 days going up to earnings and 'hopefully' after a positive report, we will all be celebrating

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Why do you believe that? Q3 deliveries will send TSLA over $2,000 permanently. Q3 earnings even higher.
Add to those what Battery Day might accomplish.

Unless there is a significant negative event, series of events or news that affects Tesla's outlook, a fall back to the low $1000s is very unlikely. Some sort of correction is probable but a 50%-70% cliff dive as you propose is nonsense.

I'm counting on a dip down to $850-1100 in the next two years to add my next big chunk. That's a massive market cap. I could easily see TSLA @ $800 (down from $2000 or so) on a major global recession.

 

[trailhound]

so today ARK was trimming TSLA(3887 shares) and buying a small amount of BYDDY (11500shares)and a stalls worth of WKHS(183100 shares)

 

[Krugerrand]

I can agree in a bright future for Tesla without believing that the share price will remain on a constant upwards or horizontal trajectory. Tesla's margins may be great, but they're not 20X VW's margins, and VW produces 20X more vehicles (soon to be only 10X, yes). Solar and Energy are the future, too, but they're not going to be big time contributors in the next couple years, and the market rarely looks beyond a few quarters, never a few years.



The market in TSLA today is like a voting machine. In the long run, it'll act like a weighing machine.

I do not believe today's $1000+ prices ($1650 today) are primarily the result of people seeing a bright future for Tesla in the next 10 years. In my (apparently unpopular) opinion, the price rise over $1000 (about when Q2 deliveries were announced) is fed primarily by S&P 500 inclusion. This is a once in a generation opportunity and it would be wrong to underestimate its impact on today's share price.

EDIT: Corrected to 20X volumes today

Ok. We’ll see.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Jul 20, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Breaks Out w. New ATH Close"

Traded: $27,099,916,138.17 ($27.10 B)
Volume: 17,156,696
VWAP: $1,579.55

Closing SP / VWAP: 104.17%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $304.735B / $175.962B = 173.18%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $233.49B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $149.81B*
*Nota Bene: $150B 6-mth Mkt Cap will be exceeded on Tue, Jul 21, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 41.0% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 51.0% (51st Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 2.61% of Short Volume (64th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Elon will earn his 2nd Tranche tomorrow"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

I'm counting on a dip down to $850-1100 in the next two years to add my next big chunk. That's a massive market cap. I could easily see TSLA @ $800 (down from $2000 or so) on a major global recession.

Ya, all dips under $1K, only after stock Split.