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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Recommended house rules for tonight - if I may be so bold:
  1. Don't post the SP only We all have Google and no one is going to believe you when you say it is over 2k anyway;)
  2. Don't post excerpts of the report without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
  3. Don't post quotes from the call without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
  4. Don't post unless you are up to date on the thread and can confirm nobody has posted already. This has been almost impossible on previous ER evenings but if everyone follows these rules we have a chance.
This should limit us to less than 20 pages. Anymore?
Considering my mental state once the numbers are out, a minute might not amount to much :D
 
Maybe. But. The tunnels can be much smaller. So you can have many more parallel tunnels.

Right now you have huge trains that start and stop at each station. Most of the tunnel system is empty at any one point in time. If you had small pods, you could pack in tons more pods into the tunnels than you can trains. So the overall system capacity might be very similar.

From a users perspective, trains are awful since they stop at every station and require disembarking and reembarking at transfer points. A pod system would skip all those intermediate stations and go directly from start to finish station, automatically navigating different tunnel “lines”.

Pods are the way to go if you want to actually eliminate or mitigate surface based road traffic.

Agree... back when Neroden was still around arguing for trains, I wrote this:

There's nothing that about trains that directly addresses the "physics first principles" of getting a certain number of folks from point A to point B. That's a problem associated with the number of units to be moved, time, and distance.

Trains are one way to solve the equation. Associated with that are a number of secondary considerations: queuing issues, congestions at hubs, packaging, routing, etc...

But from a first principals standpoint, if the total # of units can arrive from point A to point B in less time using alternative methods then we aren't violating any physics. This will require applying different sets of solutions to those similar sets of secondary considerations.

Think about it in terms of something other than the traditional transportation "box". This is a lot like the move from circuit-switched communications infrastructure to packet switched.

Back in the day, communications lines were allocated on a circuit basis (i.e. the operator plugged your line in to the destination line, and that circuit remained "nailed up" for the duration of the conversation). This required large central offices, large numbers of dedicated trunks between dense communications centers, a specific set of batching and queuing methodology to avoid busy signals, etc...

The solutions to expansion and growth in this era was to build larger central offices, install more trunk lines, build more efficient switches, automate operations, etc... but fundamentally the solution remained the same: nail up a line between two parties. That underlying premise necessarily bounded what could be done with the system.

The move to packet-switched networks changed everything. By necessity of physics, a packet that was allowed to only "hold the line" to a destination for a fraction of a second was going to be able to transfer less information than an established circuit. There was still the need for centralized offices, central lines, etc... but what could be done with that infrastructure was a paradigm-change.

Because these individual packets could be smaller they could ultimately be made faster. Multiple packets could be multiplexed on the same lines. Queuing and switching became more flexible. Routing possibilities expanded dramatically. It became possible to upgrade existing lines to handle more traffic via control mechanisms not possible in circuit environments. Trunking became dynamic. Distributed paths became possible. Redundancy and congestion control became significantly more flexible. Advancements in information systems had dramatic impacts in system management.

Do all of the necessary components for a fully distributed "packetized" human transportation system exist today? No. But things like cheaper alternatives to high-speed rail such as hyperloop, advancements in underground boring, BFR-style trips, automated driving/piloting systems and the like, could very well be the initial sparks in developing that sort of infrastructure. This is the same way that the first DARPA IMP packet routers and the initial DARPANET network paved the way for the internet

is the analogy perfect? No. But my point is: never say never. It may not seem possible with what you know today, but try not to let it hamper your view of what may be possible tomorrow. Otherwise we should be talking about who makes the finer buggy whip.
 
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Way more people can invest in the S&P500 in their retirement accounts than can invest in ARK ETFs in their retirement accounts.

even though I own both & tsla - I could see how the arkk fees might keep low cost investors away from tsla exposure.

And for people who aren’t robin hood types or fractional share traders - buying a little bit of VOO with amounts that are less than the price of 1 share would be an easy low cost way to own some TSLA.

And much lower fee structure than ark too
 
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Anyways, Tesla will start advertising when their production capacity exceeds organic demand. And I believe we are approaching that point with all the factory activity going on...

Realize that we can only guess when production will exceed "organic demand". I'm guessing we are not that close yet considering how little the average car buyer knows about Tesla and, more importantly, the fact that Tesla sells through word of mouth so their sales force (Tesla owners) is growing at an incredible rate.

If each Tesla buyer "infects" family, friends, coworkers with "Teslaitis" at a rate of only 1 other person per owner per year, what kind of sales growth rate does that result in? The answer is it depends upon the average time between the original sale and the resulting sale. I honestly don't think Tesla will need to advertise for years to come.
 
I've had no problem buying ARKK in Austria. I use Hello Bank (BNP Paribas).
OT: Hello Bank refused to open an account for me earlier this year. I had just sold 900+ TSLA and wanted to move the money from a French bank to another one to reduce the risk. Hello Bank never explained why they rejected me but I had to fill-in a form about my assets so I guess they didn't want new customers holding that much cash in checking accounts (my thesis is that the negative rates would cost them more than they expect to earn from me). So I kept the cash in the first bank, bought back 1000+ TSLA thanks to the drop in SP.

How many more TSLA should I buy for Hello Bank to take my €€€?
 
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OT: Hello Bank refused to open an account for me earlier this year. I had just sold 900+ TSLA and wanted to move the money from a French bank to another one to reduce the risk. Hello Bank never explained why they rejected me but I had to fill-in a form about my assets so I guess they didn't want new customers holding that much cash in checking accounts (my thesis is that the negative rates would cost them more than they expect to earn from me). So I kept the cash in the first bank, bought back 1000+ TSLA thanks to the drop in SP.

How many more TSLA should I buy for Hello Bank to take my €€€?
Until you can buy them. Perhaps tomorrow then.
 
Recommended house rules for tonight - if I may be so bold:
  1. Don't post the SP only We all have Google and no one is going to believe you when you say it is over 2k anyway;)
  2. Don't post excerpts of the report without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
  3. Don't post quotes from the call without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
  4. Don't post unless you are up to date on the thread and can confirm nobody has posted already. This has been almost impossible on previous ER evenings but if everyone follows these rules we have a chance.
This should limit us to less than 20 pages. Anymore?

Don't post ... and if you really,really have to post, then make it unique and interesting.

Remember, each post will be read hundreds, if not thousands of times, so make them count.
 
Recommended house rules for tonight - if I may be so bold:
  1. Don't post the SP only We all have Google and no one is going to believe you when you say it is over 2k anyway;)
  2. Don't post excerpts of the report without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
  3. Don't post quotes from the call without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
  4. Don't post unless you are up to date on the thread and can confirm nobody has posted already. This has been almost impossible on previous ER evenings but if everyone follows these rules we have a chance.
This should limit us to less than 20 pages. Anymore?
no posts of drinking or leaving the wife or buying an island or shorts or short shorts or ..
But then again I like all those posts