Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

Created a poll for GAAP income estimates(see below), just over 3 hours for the closing bell.

TSLA Q2 2020 GAAP Income poll

 

[mejojo]

Tesla dropped the interest rate for new Tesla from 2.99 to 2.49.

Don't think this was mentioned before.

I was quoted 2.49, then when final terms were discussed they said 2.99. I objected, they relented. (Not that it amounts to much)

 

[mejojo]

PRESS LIKE if you are going YOLO today.

 

[c041v]

Meh. Elon has experience with pretty much all this. How much more bureaucracy than NASA, military, Germany, California, China, NHTSA et al is there? How much harder can it be to build a business with a wasteland of triers like the auto industry? How much harder than starting a rocket company and sending people to the ISS?

Everybody always thinks their industry is harder than everyone else’s.

Yeah, meh. They’ll make mistakes, they’ll adjust, they’ll innovate and they’ll make all current companies look like amateurs walking backwards.

You know that all the top geologists and assorted engineers are going to want to work at The Boring Co, right?

You understand that until SpaceX came along, rocket companies were charging multiples more than SPACEX? You understand until Tesla came along, EVs were way higher priced with more complexity and less functionality?

I can go on.

I did actually address some of this - I'm not questioning the team or their ability to innovate, I just don't clearly understand the innovation at present. A faster, smaller diameter TBM is not a Model S or Reusable rocket. It's just a faster, smaller, TBM (which already exists for utility boring applications, we use them all the time).

What I'm curious and excited about is exactly how The Boring Company plans on innovating and addressing the challenges I mentioned, as Construction is in dire need of disruption and so far, nobody has been able to figure out how to change the status quo. I do realize top talent is drawn to Musk's companies as well and that is part of the secret sauce as it's not the B team trying to do the same thing over and over, which is a common frustration of mine with regards to my current employer.

 

[Knightshade]

IIRC, there are plans to extend it even to the airport.

edit: Here it the projected plan: Vegas Loop — Vegas Loop

FWIW the monorail in vegas has had "plans" to extend it to the airport for like 15 years now and it keeps not happening... (in at least some significant part due to the taxis and shuttle bus companies that make a large % of income running that route who lobby against it)

 

[LN1_Casey]

I was quoted 2.49, then when final terms were discussed they said 2.99. I objected, they relented. (Not that it amounts to much)

Isn't the rate terms up to credit score check anyway? So, theoretically, you could have qualified for only 2.99. I know my bank has that "as low as" tacked onto their rates always.

Or does Tesla only do flat rates?

 

[Green Pete]

is the consensus here that a profit is a long shot that would be awesome or that it is likely?

 

[capster]

As I wait for trading to close, I'll chime in;

I'm skeptical about the Boring Company's long term profitability. Tunnel boring can be a very challenging type of civil work (Not that landing rockets isn't) and firms in this field have historically had some major problems over a long enough horizon. The Boring Company has taken on a few, relatively short tunnels in what I suspect are not that difficult rock/soil conditions. Maybe that is the intended formula, I don't know.

I've been to the head of an operational TBM and work in the Infrastructure business. Tunnels are only taken on by a select few international firms that have the risk tolerance and experience for such things and there's a long list of those who have failed. Just a couple of months ago, a partner company pulled out of a project as they were struggling so much with rock conditions. Even the nature of these machines is unique in that they can't often be re-used and are difficult to transport - I think the LA TBM is parked off to the side?

To me, the low bid for the three person station demonstrates a lack of experience more than disruption at this point. I see very low bidders all the time and it's for one of two reasons; 1. "Buying the job" to secure work, or 2. They screwed something up in the bid. It's normally the latter.

I have complete faith in Elon and the team, but the key to this industry is not about drilling faster, it's having a sixth sense in terms of geotechnical conditions, the ability to cut through bureaucratic red tape as it concerns authorities and utility providers and manage labour/equipment effectively. I'd like to see more holistic information around how the completed projects went, and less about how they are just planning to drill faster. Again, Elon is no stranger to seemingly impossible challenges, I'm just not seeing any disruptive magic in what the Boring Company is currently doing.

Several questions:
* Given Tesla for the torque and batteries together with SpaceX for the metallurgy, wouldn’t that be a pretty good start towards an improvement of and synergistic reconfiguration of technologies into a transformative boring machine?
* Consider the thought experiment: What if tunnel boring was free, where would you use tunnels and for what? Now work your way up from zero cost.
* How would you characterize Elon Musk’s risk tolerance?
* You sound knowledgeable, expert even. Are you aware of the track record of experts predicting the rate of progress in their own fields? (Hint: It is notoriously overly conservative.)

 

[InDaClub]

View attachment 567569

Will you be updating Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable?

 

[copyhacker]

I will not be gobsmacked by some shenanigan and tomfoolery questions from certain unnamed prigs later today.

 

[Tyler34]

Isn't the rate terms up to credit score check anyway? So, theoretically, you could have qualified for only 2.99. I know my bank has that "as low as" tacked onto their rates always.

Or does Tesla only do flat rates?

Tesla uses banks like US Bank, Chase, ect. When I got my Y I was originally locked in to 2.99% with US Bank, so I emailed tesla finance department and asked them to check my rate with chase since I heard they had the best rates. When they did I got locked in at 2.19%

 

[TheTalkingMule]

is the consensus here that a profit is a long shot that would be awesome or that it is likely?

No chance!

 

[Tslynk67]

Per earlier discussion on ability to buy $ARKK in European Union, the answer looks like a "no". Can buy calls though, how the hell does that work out??

 

[StealthP3D]

Gonna be system capacity/speed issues. It’s a one lane underground highway...

HaHa! Unless you think like Elon.

Because the cars are in a controlled environment and driven by computers, they will be able to follow each other with only feet of separation as the software matures. This will also increase efficiency by reducing aerodynamic drag. Cars will cue up outside the tunnel and be routed one after the other, all accelerating in unison like well choreographed stunt drivers might do for an exhibition - it will be like they are all seperate parts of the one organism. The number of cars required and the size of the loading area will depend upon how efficiently people can load into them.

During heavy traffic periods you will have to pay double if you have a queasy stomach and want to avoid ludicrous launch mode! Just kidding, the launch will be brisk but ludicrous won't be necessary if there is a reasonable amount of cueing space outside the tunnel entrance. A one-lane tunnel will have the carrying capacity of a four lane highway. There will be no carrying capacity issues of the tunnels themselves, it will only depend upon whether the pick-up/drop-off locations are sufficient for the number of people who want to go between the two stations.

 

[Sudre]

Recommended house rules for tonight - if I may be so bold:

1. Don't post the SP only We all have Google and no one is going to believe you when you say it is over 2k anyway
2. Don't post excerpts of the report without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
3. Don't post quotes from the call without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
4. Don't post unless you are up to date on the thread and can confirm nobody has posted already. This has been almost impossible on previous ER evenings but if everyone follows these rules we have a chance.

This should limit us to less than 20 pages. Anymore?

In the end 4 will be the problem. 1, 2, & 3 is quite a lofty goal. I expect the thread to grow so fast no one will be able to keep up so 4 will be impossible. We should start a poll somewhere and assign one person to posts important facts and tidbits. That way 6 people don't end up repeating the information in the same 30 second time frame.

 

[X Fan]

Tim Higgins at it again with a mostly negative WSJ article on build quality vs buyer love of car.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

As I wait for trading to close, I'll chime in;

I'm skeptical about the Boring Company's long term profitability. Tunnel boring can be a very challenging type of civil work (Not that landing rockets isn't) and firms in this field have historically had some major problems over a long enough horizon. The Boring Company has taken on a few, relatively short tunnels in what I suspect are not that difficult rock/soil conditions. Maybe that is the intended formula, I don't know.

I've been to the head of an operational TBM and work in the Infrastructure business. Tunnels are only taken on by a select few international firms that have the risk tolerance and experience for such things and there's a long list of those who have failed. Just a couple of months ago, a partner company pulled out of a project as they were struggling so much with rock conditions. Even the nature of these machines is unique in that they can't often be re-used and are difficult to transport - I think the LA TBM is parked off to the side?

To me, the low bid for the three person station demonstrates a lack of experience more than disruption at this point. I see very low bidders all the time and it's for one of two reasons; 1. "Buying the job" to secure work, or 2. They screwed something up in the bid. It's normally the latter.

I have complete faith in Elon and the team, but the key to this industry is not about drilling faster, it's having a sixth sense in terms of geotechnical conditions, the ability to cut through bureaucratic red tape as it concerns authorities and utility providers and manage labour/equipment effectively. I'd like to see more holistic information around how the completed projects went, and less about how they are just planning to drill faster. Again, Elon is no stranger to seemingly impossible challenges, I'm just not seeing any disruptive magic in what the Boring Company is currently doing.

Recommend a little reading, it's not just about drilling faster

FAQ — The Boring Company

 

[Tslynk67]

Recommended house rules for tonight - if I may be so bold:

1. Don't post the SP only We all have Google and no one is going to believe you when you say it is over 2k anyway
2. Don't post excerpts of the report without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
3. Don't post quotes from the call without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
4. Don't post unless you are up to date on the thread and can confirm nobody has posted already. This has been almost impossible on previous ER evenings but if everyone follows these rules we have a chance.

This should limit us to less than 20 pages. Anymore?

Actually, please don't post at all or I'll have 100 pages to wade-through in the morning

 

[Big Time]

is the consensus here that a profit is a long shot that would be awesome or that it is likely?

Im thinking very likely its profitable....

 

[azaz]

Just made my earnings play, 93k worth of 9/18 2000 calls