There are two things going on here. There's FUD. I think we can all recognize that.
Then there are analysts like Tony Sarcophagous (or whatever his name is) at Bernstein who is probably being mostly sincere with his over-valuation call (he just doesn't know how to value a company like Tesla). Investors with real money to invest will always be more accurate (in the aggregate) at putting a value on a company than someone who is simply paid to tell you what its value is. Because investors who are no good at determining future value soon find themselves with a lack of funds with which to place bets while those who are good at it have ever increasing amounts of money with which to risk. And, analysts who are below average tend to keep collecting a paycheck even when most of their calls are a complete miss. And, they are not betting their own money.
The same thing happened with Microsoft analysts in the late '80's. I don't think it was bad intentions. Software was a new thing and analysts had never valued a company that had such huge margins and growth rate. As sales grew, each additional sale was almost 100% profit. Even though analysts knew this intellectually, they couldn't translate that into valuations that made sense (the market valued it higher than analysts for many years). So, for a number of years most analysts considered MSFT over-valued and couldn't recommend it their clients. They missed out on one of the most profitable stocks of the software boom. It wasn't a bubble, it just kept growing earnings faster than analysts could model reasonable valuations for.
I think Tesla will turn out similar. Analysts like Tony claim they are "on-board" the EV revolution but I doubt they understand just how fast the growth will be and how quickly the cost curve will continue to decline as those volumes explode. They also will tend to over-estimate the ability of legacy automakers to compete (either with their gas cars or their EV's). And then there is the matter of other initiatives Tesla may succeed at (just when you think valuations are getting really crazy).
So, yeah, I don't worry about "over-valuation" as long as Tesla's future initiatives stay on track relative to the market. In general, you have to pay a premium to get the kind of growth I expect out of Tesla once investors start to figure that out. And that is exactly what has been happening since late last year.
