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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Just reading this made my ears ring and then deaf.................. Throw Phil Collins's "I don't care anymore" into the playlist.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
I’m absolutely dating myself here...
Pinky: What are we gonna do tonight, Brain?
Brain: The same thing we do every night, Pinky.
Pinky: And what’s that?
Brain: TRY TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD.
PV4EV
Member
(Below is a revised graph from my post #187827 .. this time with a more useful indication of buy/sell volume Vs SP)
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humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Something that I think is worth remembering is that one of Tesla's competitive advantages is in manufacturing. With respect to that their competitors generally fall into one of two camps:
Legacy OEMS
While the OEMs have plenty of experience with manufacturing they are hobbled by a need to do so within the confines of their ICE-focused production. This leads to inferior vehicles. Attempts to avoid this dead end are hampered by other legacy constraints.
New Startups
While a new startup is not afflicted with the legacy problems they have an even bigger one: volume production. Elon Musk keeps repeating that "building the machine that builds the machine" is "an order of magnitude more difficult." For a newcomer the difficulty isn't in designing an EV with desirable characteristics, but in making that design in a way that allows it to be mass produced.
Tesla has had quite a bit of difficulty in this regard, but what they did not have was a competitor mass producing compelling EVs. Any newcomer, whether that is Rivian or someone else, will have to solve the manufacturing problems for their design. Maybe Rivian will succeed (I hope so) -- but I suspect that their "early- to mid- next year" [1] estimate for bringing their vehicle [to market] is optimistic. Their struggle will be the same as other newcomers: to stay afloat while struggling with production issues.
Maybe Musk is wrong and volume manufacturing isn't that hard. But the dearth of successful automotive startups speaks volumes.
1) Rivian raises $2.5 billion in aggressive plan to beat Tesla and Nikola with the first all-electric pickup
Legacy OEMS
While the OEMs have plenty of experience with manufacturing they are hobbled by a need to do so within the confines of their ICE-focused production. This leads to inferior vehicles. Attempts to avoid this dead end are hampered by other legacy constraints.
New Startups
While a new startup is not afflicted with the legacy problems they have an even bigger one: volume production. Elon Musk keeps repeating that "building the machine that builds the machine" is "an order of magnitude more difficult." For a newcomer the difficulty isn't in designing an EV with desirable characteristics, but in making that design in a way that allows it to be mass produced.
Tesla has had quite a bit of difficulty in this regard, but what they did not have was a competitor mass producing compelling EVs. Any newcomer, whether that is Rivian or someone else, will have to solve the manufacturing problems for their design. Maybe Rivian will succeed (I hope so) -- but I suspect that their "early- to mid- next year" [1] estimate for bringing their vehicle [to market] is optimistic. Their struggle will be the same as other newcomers: to stay afloat while struggling with production issues.
Maybe Musk is wrong and volume manufacturing isn't that hard. But the dearth of successful automotive startups speaks volumes.
1) Rivian raises $2.5 billion in aggressive plan to beat Tesla and Nikola with the first all-electric pickup
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Best EVs in UK:
The best electric cars you can buy for any budget revealed | Daily Mail Online
M3P makes best exec car. They conveniently forgot to mention the SR+.
The best electric cars you can buy for any budget revealed | Daily Mail Online
M3P makes best exec car. They conveniently forgot to mention the SR+.
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New rule: you mention NKLA in this thread, you transfer 1 chair to me or to another poster who never mentions NKLA outside of the NKLA thread. Thank you for your cooperation.
I will accept 3 from you now.
Thank you
adiggs
Well-Known Member
@Lycanthrope is European - the kind of account he's talking about is either a European thing, or a thing from his country (Belgium?).
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Good points. And in addition to the difficulties of being able to MANUFACTURE their EVs in high volumes, competitors already face the huge headwinds in that by far the highest cost of any EV is the battery pack. As your battery pack volumes increase, the cost of the cars decrease significantly because you are able to better vertically integrate and lower the cost of raw materials and everything else that goes into the pack.
Tesla makes WAY more battery packs than anyone else in the world and is on a nearly uncatchable trajectory. It will take a very, very long time for ANYONE else to catch up to that, regardless of whether they're an OEM or a startup. That's the first-mover advantage, and the reason why TSLA should be higher than it is right now. And it's the major thing that most analysts are too stupid to understand. (Sorry analysts, but it's true).
Just as in recognizing that when buying a house it's "Location, location, location", Elon's smartest move with respect to Tesla was in realizing that with EVs and storage, it's "Batteries, batteries, batteries".
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Somebody needs to photoshop Trevor in a Beetlejuice suit....
Actually he should get one of his own people to do it- I hear they're excellent with photoshop....
I don't even know how they got in my house.
I think they found out how many TSLA shares I have and are plotting something.
If a Pinky and the Brain reference is dating yourself oh man, I feel old.
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