Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[smorgasbord]

New hit piece from Business Insider (including Linette Lopez, of course).

12. A Wrench in Tesla

Podcast and transcript. Some gems, for instance:

LL: Martin Trip's claims made sense to me, and of course they were backed up by internal documents, but they made sense because Tesla's balance sheet had always been out of control. It had always been spending too much money. In fact, the company had only turned a profit in two quarters over the course of its history. So this was kind of the missing piece of the puzzle of why Tesla was just burning so much cash.

and

DB: And he thinks that in the meantime, artificial intelligence is going to destroy us. And somehow he's running this car company, and he also has time to run a rocket company, SpaceX and then there's also Tesla, which has all those production problems you talked about and Elon apparently is sleeping in the factory on this bad couch because they are so behind on production.

And then a whole section on Rich Rebuilds (Rich Renoit) with commentary from an anonymous Tesla employee they call Wendy to protect her identity.

 

[StealthP3D]

Are you sure? You get four stocks dividend. Each worth about $300. That the one stock you own got down in value from $1500 to $300 has nothing to do with it.

When will the madness end? You don't get "four stocks" you get 4 shares. And they were already yours to begin with. It's just a different way of accounting for them. There is no value changing hands. 5/5ths = 1/1.

Please stop!

 

[Gilesmiles]

Higgins’ book on Tesla is scheduled to come out from Doubleday on 3 Aug 2021 fyi. Expect massive publicity.

Tom Randall’s new biography on Elon (“Architect of the Future” I think is the subtitle) is scheduled to come out around February 2021 so I hear.

My book on Tesla will come out at some point in-between those two.

2021 gonna be interesting. Hoping to meet many of you on the book tour.

Haven’t bought a physical book in years but i’m sure gonna buy yours!

 

[FrankSG]

Higgins’ book on Tesla is scheduled to come out from Doubleday on 3 Aug 2021 fyi. Expect massive publicity.

Tom Randall’s new biography on Elon (“Architect of the Future” I think is the subtitle) is scheduled to come out around February 2021 so I hear.

My book on Tesla will come out at some point in-between those two.

2021 gonna be interesting. Hoping to meet many of you on the book tour.

Three new Elon books in 2021?

 

[Off Shore]

Some masters degree student is going to get a thesis out of the discussion of the stock split here. Along with everybody who's been saying it, from someone who's been through it multiple times, please: have a 'lude, get a grip, chill.

Thank you.

 

[Christine69420]

View attachment 575588

Is he conceding defeat? Thanks for the free advertising!

Shouldn't he drive the hydrogen powered Toyota Mirai?

 

[Buckminster]

Discussion on the split will continue to run on the main thread right through August - as it should. However, you may want to consider using this thread if your comments won't be valuable to most readers:
TSLA Stock Split

When will the madness end? You don't get "four stocks" you get 4 shares. And they were already yours to begin with. It's just a different way of accounting for them. There is no value changing hands.

Please stop!

For this more specific discussion, there is another thread:
Shorts repaying 4 shares on split dividend day???

Finally, tax concerns on the split go here:
Stock split tax implications for non-US shareholders

 

[UkNorthampton]

August 31st is a public holiday in the UK, which I guess adds a one day delay on top.

Well, Bank Holiday in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, but they might get their shares a day earlier in Scotland,,, (if Edinburgh processes anything and it's not all London). They don't use Royal Mail for share certificates do they? Could be weeks. Or Yodel, just thrown over a side fence.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Tesla Bull Case presentation from Tesla Daily (over an hour long!):

Timestamps from Rob Maurer:

2:21 Background on Tesla Daily
3:52 Bull case presentation begins
7:16 Tesla's lead in electrification
10:43 Tesla's lead in autonomy
12:53 Tesla's lead in energy
14:30 Is Tesla overvalued?
26:35 Competition has completely given up the market
28:37 Beginning of question and answer section
30:39 Will infrastructure scale fast enough?
33:33 Will people really want to share their vehicles for ridesharing?
36:36 Is Tesla prepared for supply and battery constraints?
40:58 Does The Boring Company come into play for mining?
41:53 Will Tesla's innovation slow down as they enter a higher volume phase?
45:35 Is Tesla's lack of advertising sustainable?
48:03 Who is a legitimate competitor to Tesla?
53:12 Thoughts on Rivian and partnerships?
56:05 How did you feel during the Cybertruck unveiling?
58:20 What are your thoughts on the new Roadster and will you be purchasing one?
1:00:46 Is Tesla's executive turnover a concern?
1:04:29 Do you own a pair of Tesla short shorts?
1:05:00 Any thoughts on TSLA's stock split?
1:06:55 How have you looked at Elon Musk's actions and legal issues the last few years? Do you think he is comparable to Steve Jobs?
1:10:00 What do you think Apple's ambitions in the space are?
1:11:58 What is your backround?
1:13:15 What do you think keeps Elon Musk and Tesla's management team up at night?

 

[JustMe]

So much has been said about the stock split, but maybe a simple analogy will help

you have a $100 bill. Tesla kindly trades 5:1 —> you get five $20 bills. Same same

For NKLA, being a lower-priced stock the situation would be similar, but instead you give Trevor a $20 bill and he gives you five $4 bills in return.

Wait ..

 

[RobStark]

Model 2 yes, trucks are not popular in China at all unless if it's a FU money kind of purchase. Service is so cheap in China that you never have to haul anything home as every large item you buy has delivery/home install included. Having an actual "Work truck" is seen as something done by low working class peasants.

However if the Chinese sees that truck as a tank alternative then it may catch on, before being banned by the government..lol.

A couple of months ago there was talk of the opposite happening in China.

That Chinese cities would allow zero emission pickups into City centers where ICE pickups are now banned.

 

[RobStark]

In a recent podcast, when asked to compare Tesla and Jaguar, Trevor said something like "in terms of software Tesla destroys Jaguar, in terms of quality Jaguar destroys Tesla"

Milton probably doesn't know that Jaguar doesn't build the I-Pace.

It is built by Magna Steyr in Austria.

BTW Magna Steyr has so many contracts and appears to be in negotiations with Fisker to build the Ocean they are probably looking to add second auto manufacturing facility.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The following might help you to decide what to do:

This issue is highly country-specific as noted by several German, Belgian, Dutch, UK, etc. forum members. I've spent whole day speaking with several tax specialists and unfortunately the initial answer is not very promising. The rule in Finland is pretty clear: Stock dividends (= most likely including split-style stock dividends) are always taxable events. The tax is based on the real market value of the dividend shares (calculated as weighted avg market price of the first trading day). It's also mentioned in the link you posted: "The market value of the share of a publicly listed company is the weighted average quote of the day in question."

Even though this situation really sucks I'll probably ride the storm anyway. There isn't any significant tax difference if I sell everything now and re-buy later. Capital gain taxes would be huge anyway having a cost-basis of roughly $250 (avg). In this stock dividend -scenario the only good part is that the actual payment date of the tax can be delayed since the amount is not automatically deducted from the account balance AFAIK. However, this could vary depending on where your broker is located. According to tax professionals it's usually possible to negotiate some additional payment time in situations like this. I need to pay 2% interest to tax authorities (roughly the same as regular margin would cost).

Considering the relatively low 2% interest and 1-3 year outlook of TSLA I decided not to cash-out completely despite the situation.

• Good thing: I still made a lot of money owning this stock. Way way more than most retails make in their life.
• Bad thing: Exactly 80% of my current TSLA position value will be taxed at a rate of roughly 30%. Not optimal situation, but one could say this is the flip side of free healthcare, free university education, etc...
• Worst thing: This is unlikely to be the last TSLA split I must suffer.
• Optimistic thing: If I sell now I'd create a tax event which cannot be reversed in any case. If I do not sell now I still have a slight chance to negotiate with the tax authorities.

Seems like there is not much I can do about it. Burn Delaware? </s> Burn my passport? It's about to expire anyway in October. This is the deal: get me fresh nationality by next week and I'll get you Model 3 with fuzzy dices of your choice. Anyone?

Cyprus?

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'm a total blank slate when it comes to various tax issue, but riddle me this: even if you treat this as if it's a taxable vent... if the one share you got somehow yielded 4 more, but the market value after this "yield" remained the same, it means your original one share lost 4/5th of its value isn't it? So you would log a loss on your original share, and equal gain on the newly minted ones.

To explain my disagree, it depends on the tax system. Different countries can be VERY different! The UK And USA are probably similar, but other countries (EU) have different traditions, systems and tax history/case law.

 

[UkNorthampton]

But the tax is on the dividend amount not on the capital gains. So it all hinges on how each taxing authority defines a dividend and calculates the amount.

If taxed as a dividend, I think the main hope would be the nominal value of the shares is the taxable dividend value (fractions of a US cent).

 

[Tslynk67]

I mailed my Belgian broker and got back an almost instant response which implies they're getting asked the question by a lot of people:

"For the moment we don't have the info yet, we asked our services if they can provide us with the correct information regarding a possible taxation of the split (as dividend) ASAP."

However, as my shares are in a personal trading account, I could in theory just sell them on the 28th and rebuy on the 31st - or as someone else suggested, move everything into LEAPS. Of course then I'd lose by paying tax on the trade, but there's no capital gains due.

Here's hoping all these jurisdictions apply some common-sense and realise in essence it's just a split, not a dividend.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Ford is the number one stock held on Robinhood. One has to think it's probably because of the share price because I seriously doubt all these millenials think Ford is the future.

Took me 4 tries to explain to this one girl that share price is meaningless. She just stares at me and said " shouldn't I buy Ford at 8 dollars a share when TSLA is 330 dollars a share?". Face palm.

Robinhood gives free stocks to new users that have been referred and to those that referred them. Ford is likely the most commonly distributed.

 

[CyberDutchie]

So much has been said about the stock split, but maybe a simple analogy will help

you have a $100 bill. Tesla kindly trades 5:1 —> you get five $20 bills. Same same

For NKLA, being a lower-priced stock the situation would be similar, but instead you give Trevor a $20 bill and he gives you five $4 bills in return.

Wait ..

Four, plus a ticket to Nikola World

 

[Darren12]

For those wondering about options, the OCC posted their memo yesterday about how options will be affected by the split: 5x the contracts, 1/5 the strike price, so they are treating this like any other split for options.

Thanks @willow_hiller for sharing Apple’s memo the other day!

https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=47432

 

[SPadival]

New research paper from Jeff Dahn on progress on anode-free lithium metal cells:

Diagnosing and correcting anode-free cell failure via electrolyte and morphological analysis | Nature Energy

'Abstract
Anode-free lithium metal cells store 60% more energy per volume than conventional lithium-ion cells. Such high energy density can increase the range of electric vehicles by approximately 280 km or even enable electrified urban aviation. However, these cells tend to experience rapid capacity loss and short cycle life. Furthermore, safety issues concerning metallic lithium often remain unaddressed in the literature. Recently, we demonstrated long-lifetime anode-free cells using a dual-salt carbonate electrolyte. Here we characterize the degradation of anode-free cells with this lean (2.6 g Ah−1) liquid electrolyte. We observe deterioration of the pristine lithium morphology using scanning electron microscopy and X-ray tomography, and diagnose the cause as electrolyte degradation and depletion using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and ultrasonic transmission mapping. For the safety characterization tests, we measure the cell temperature during nail penetration. Finally, we use the insights gained in this work to develop an optimized electrolyte, extending the lifetime of anode-free cells to 200 cycles.'

Tesla researchers show path to next-gen battery cell with breakthrough energy density - Electrek

Neg points for linking to Fwedtrek.

This video explains the paper (available on ResearchGate):

Also, hi Rob.. now I need to find an hour to watch this video lol.