Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Maybe, but still pretty difficult to imagine, because every (naked) short sale requires shares to be delivered within 4 days of the transaction date. Maybe after doing a naked short #1 on day 1, they could buy shares on day 2 to settle naked short #1 while opening a new naked short #2. Then as long as the shares bought on day 2 settle quickly, they can use them to settle naked short #1, and then on day 3 they can buy shares to settle naked short #2 while opening a naked short #3.

But even in this scenario I don't see how the stock split dividend hurts a practice like this. If they naked short on August 21st, they can just buy 1 share (with 4 dividend shares attached to it) on August 24th to deliver on this naked short, and open a new naked short to keep their position the same.

Assuming they want to short the same dollar amount, doesn't it cost them more to do as they have to purchase more shares?

 

[ZsoZso]

I hope it doesn’t involve throwing steel balls at batteries.

But it might involve punching nails through the batteries. A guy from Jeff's lab just had his Masters Degree defense yesterday and he talked about experiments involving nail puncture measuring various properties to prove safety of the battery

Spoiler

I know this from my daughter who is just on her way to Halifax, because she is joining Jeff's group to start her Masters from September. She is a Nanotechnology Engineer graduate and already has her name on a Li-ion battery electrode patent from her work terms at Sila Nanotechnologies.

 

[Hock1]

Merrill Lynch Upgrades Tesla To Hold, More Than Doubles PT

First time that I can remember seeing an upgrade on a Sunday. Couldn't wait until tomorrow for some reason!

 

[HG Wells]

Merrill Lynch Upgrades Tesla To Hold, More Than Doubles PT

First time that I can remember seeing an upgrade on a Sunday. Couldn't wait until tomorrow for some reason!

WOW, see's 50% growth year over year for the next 5 years.
Quite a reversal on their part.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well, that's obvious.
There are far far more 400 dollar stocks than 2000 dollar stocks.
Over a 5 year period Id bet it would be a order of magnitude more 400 dollar stocks dubling than 2000 dollar stocks doubling.

No, it’s because people think a stock moving from $400 to $800 is a move of only $400 vs $2,000 to $4,000 which is a move of $2,000.

$400 being way smaller than $2000 is what their brains see instead of seeing that both moves are exactly the same as a percentage.

That’s just how a lot of people ‘work’.

This stock split is intended to help the little guy be able to invest. I would argue that a lot of these little guys have had years to invest and even at lower prices than the stock will be once the split occurs. I would argue they aren’t very sophisticated investors and thus susceptible to the psychology.

But here’s the thing; big, sophisticated investors who do move the market must also be susceptible to the psychology because we often talk about psychological TSLA SP barriers here. The $420 funding secured barrier, the $1,000 barrier, Sparta, the selling on round numbers thus we specifically don’t sell on round numbers to avoid selling on round numbers, the SP that makes Tesla worth $150B and starts the clock for Elon Musk’s pay day, or the SP that makes TSLA too expensive for S&P funds to purchase etc... Quite literally TA is number psychology; Bollinger Bands, if the stock rises above this number or falls below that one such and such will happen...

The little guy can’t and doesn’t move the market so all these psychology barriers are manufactured by people who inherently and logically should know the numbers mean nothing, but clearly the numbers do because they ‘react’ to them.

Remember how close TSLA got to $1800 but didn’t? Well, that was a prime example of people sell on round numbers so we don’t sell on round numbers to avoid selling on round numbers.

And who exactly moved TSLA, and AAPL for that matter, on news of a stock split that’s supposed to be a nothing burger, supposed to mean nothing to anything? It wasn’t the little retail investor who can’t afford to buy TSLA at $13whatevertheSPwasatwhentheannouncementwasmade and certainly can’t suddenly afford it at $1650.71.

Logically I know my 5xs shares won’t be worth more, but reality - hell, yes, $400-$800 will happen faster than $2000-$4000 because psychology has already and will continue to accelerate SP appreciation.

 

[Mich]

So the stock does a 5 for 1 stock split, but how does the stock price split?
This is for sure stupid emotional, but who will sell at 330 usd? Will the stock price split by 5, or maybe by 4 or even by 3? Anticipating SnP500, Battery Day, Q3 numbers and the psychologically low stock price could lead to lack of sellers!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Merrill Lynch Upgrades Tesla To Hold, More Than Doubles PT

First time that I can remember seeing an upgrade on a Sunday. Couldn't wait until tomorrow for some reason!

Merrils is Bank of America. They upgraded on Friday. John Murphy is the analyst in both articles.

Bank of America upgrades Tesla and sees 8% upside over the next year after more than doubling its price target (TSLA) | Markets Insider

 

[Krugerrand]

WOW, see's 50% growth year over year for the next 5 years.
Quite a reversal on their part.

That first paragraph is full of contradiction; written, implied and sensed.

That’s two ‘we have no conviction in what we’re saying’ upgrades from permabears. Something is going on or being anticipated.

 

[CorneliusXX]

But it might involve punching nails through the batteries. A guy from Jeff's lab just had his Masters Degree defense yesterday and he talked about experiments involving nail puncture measuring various properties to prove safety of the battery

Spoiler

I know this from my daughter who is just on her way to Halifax, because she is joining Jeff's group to start her Masters from September. She is a Nanotechnology Engineer graduate and already has her name on a Li-ion battery electrode patent from her work terms at Sila Nanotechnologies.

So....got any insider information?

 

[Beezer_9]

Elon has been very active this morning on Twitter.

 

[Hock1]

Merrils is Bank of America. They upgraded on Friday. John Murphy is the analyst in both articles.

Bank of America upgrades Tesla and sees 8% upside over the next year after more than doubling its price target (TSLA) | Markets Insider

You are right. I momentarily forgot that BofA was forced to take ML in 2008, after they had made too many bad CDS "investments". Also, I should have known that with this board, any new news is found and posted within 30 seconds. Thanks.

 

[AlMc]

No, I'm saying that Tesla shareholders paid too much to bail out Solar City. Elon could have waited until it was obvious what was going on at Solar City and then have Tesla swoop in as savior for a lot less money. Tesla would still assume the debt/bonds, but Solar City shareholders would have been left holding the bag they rightfully should have been left holding. SolarCity was not worth $2.6 Billion. Just think how much sooner we'd have GF Shanghai without spending that money on SCTY.

This action hurt Tesla as a company, and those of us who were Tesla shareholders at the time.

Agreed. Many of us who opposed this acquisition did so because of the timing/price paid for Solar City not that it should not happen.

 

[brianhn1]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294790605474689025?s=21

“a truly useful exaflop at de facto FP32”

Wow did Elon just say Dogo will be an absolutely powerful supercomputer?

FSD3 CPU is 60 GFLOPS or 60 x 10^9 FLOPS

Dogo will be 1 EFLOPS or 10^18 FLOPS

So DOJO is equivalent to 16,666,666 FSD computers.

Dang.

 

[Singuy]

1. 

No, it’s because people think a stock moving from $400 to $800 is a move of only $400 vs $2,000 to $4,000 which is a move of $2,000.

$400 being way smaller than $2000 is what their brains see instead of seeing that both moves are exactly the same as a percentage.

That’s just how a lot of people ‘work’.

This stock split is intended to help the little guy be able to invest. I would argue that a lot of these little guys have had years to invest and even at lower prices than the stock will be once the split occurs. I would argue they aren’t very sophisticated investors and thus susceptible to the psychology.

But here’s the thing; big, sophisticated investors who do move the market must also be susceptible to the psychology because we often talk about psychological TSLA SP barriers here. The $420 funding secured barrier, the $1,000 barrier, Sparta, the selling on round numbers thus we specifically don’t sell on round numbers to avoid selling on round numbers, the SP that makes Tesla worth $150B and starts the clock for Elon Musk’s pay day, or the SP that makes TSLA too expensive for S&P funds to purchase etc... Quite literally TA is number psychology; Bollinger Bands, if the stock rises above this number or falls below that one such and such will happen...

The little guy can’t and doesn’t move the market so all these psychology barriers are manufactured by people who inherently and logically should know the numbers mean nothing, but clearly the numbers do because they ‘react’ to them.

Remember how close TSLA got to $1800 but didn’t? Well, that was a prime example of people sell on round numbers so we don’t sell on round numbers to avoid selling on round numbers.

And who exactly moved TSLA, and AAPL for that matter, on news of a stock split that’s supposed to be a nothing burger, supposed to mean nothing to anything? It wasn’t the little retail investor who can’t afford to buy TSLA at $13whatevertheSPwasatwhentheannouncementwasmade and certainly can’t suddenly afford it at $1650.71.

Logically I know my 5xs shares won’t be worth more, but reality - hell, yes, $400-$800 will happen faster than $2000-$4000 because psychology has already and will continue to accelerate SP appreciation.

Stock market is one gigantic cesspool governed by psychology. The worth of a company changes every second based on nothing. Tesla tanks 10% because Elon takes a puff. Yup..Elon just delivered 30% less cars because of that joint am I right?

Dave on YouTube put out a poll and asked people what companies they see 10x in the next 5-10 years. Most people wrote crap like Apple because they don't see these companies worth more than the entire stock market combined by 2030 a problem in their prediction.

 

[jbcarioca]

Allow me to retort:

View attachment 576810

Seriously not a retort, but a different subject. Oddly direct driver accident data is not very reliable on phone use or texting, hands free vs held. Blood alcohol level are better documented mostly because of testing post-accident. There have been a number of simulations which tend to show faster driving while impaired coupled with more abrupt corrections. A six year old example:

A comparison of the effect of mobile phone use and alcohol consumption on driving simulation performance - PubMed

After all the studies and data the same fundamental appears. Traffic disruptions cause accidents, accidents cause disruptions. Years ago a friend of mine at Lawrence Livermore participated in a large study joining physicists who studied incidence of traffic accidents and congestion as fluid dynamics topics. Since then, in the mid-1970’s the topics have tended to be congestion oriented. The subject is pretty well codified now and is academically organized in parts of Europe:
https://www.victorknoop.eu/research/book/Knoop_Intro_traffic_flow_theory_edition1.pdf

Summarizing endless studies from Nicholas Rashevsky at the University of Michigan with the Institute of Mathematical Biophysics (my youthful introduction to this subject) then later evolution to essentially fluid dynamics is fraught. There are thousands of articles and books. A good portion of self driving simulations tend to incorporate these principles according to my now superannuated friend.

Still, fraught or not, I think the subject pretty much summarizes as this:

The majority of traffic accidents are most highly correlated with disruptions in smooth traffic flow. Disruptions in traffic flow themselves are displayed in variations in speed in vehicles. Any disruption in even speeds increased accident risk. Therefore, poor signage, road work, inebriation, distraction from any source (Inebriation, phone use, fatigue, unfamiliarity, et al)all are contributing factors.

FSD and even driver assistance Are obviously useful, but until Level 5 human error will continue to produce accidents. FWIW, similar studies regarding aircraft accidents tend to find pilot distraction as the largest single contributing factor.

All of that study has ended out making me into a fairly conservative driver. Consequently my favorite locations to drive or fly are those where the flow is fastest. I also will not operate a vehicle if I have consumed any inebrant or am tired.

That in turn makes my longest stage length prior to charging is about three hours. A few minutes walking around helps one to be alert. This in turn makes me happy with existing Tesla ranges from any LR version.

sorry for my long response to a simple mobile phone user.

 

[Mo City]

I think that given what Musk has been doing on sharing some inventions on his many companies (SpaceX alloy on CT), we'd see more collab between them in the near future.

More specifically with SpaceX:
I believe Starlink will one day finds its way onto Tesla. In fact, I'd believe once Starlink is operational, Tesla would switch its connectivity to Starlink. The reason is quite simple, not only Starlink would suddenly have a huge customer base, Tesla kinda vertically integrates its connectivity... but its applications would also be incredible to say the least.

See how Google Streetview totally changed our way of using maps? Imagine instead of a yearly or bi-yearly update, you have a daily update? By the time Starlink is operational, there'd be millions of Tesla on road with millions coming every year. Being able to collect real world data in quasi-real time would be priceless. FSD would work much better when a pothole is reported by some cars so other cars can avoid it when passing the same spot.

Currently, it's cost-prohibitive for Tesla to transfer all interesting findings like traffic jam, pothole, debris, and more that Tesla cars see back to its center in realtime. Starlink solves that big bottleneck in the middle.

Not only can Tesla use that data, it can also sell that data feed to others. I'm sure Google would be the first in line to buy those.

Interesting. A guy on Twitter who claimed to have inside information, mentioned something like this several months ago. There was no Starlink mention.

A potentially scary prospect for Google Maps if true.

 

[Lessmog]

"CEO Of DeepGreen Metals Talks Mining Nickel & Other REEs From The Seafloor" | CleanTechnica Interview

Nickel nodules from the sea? Let's scoop 'em up!

Cheers!

Haha. Sorry to jump the queue (no time nor patience just now to read all posts) but the first I heard of seafloor mining was 47 or 48 years ago, at a UN World environment conference in Stockholm where a pretty, young delegate from Ghana (?) mentioned the prospect of collecting manganese nodules by trawling, and the need for regulation thereof. Seemed to make sense to me. But I just ran the mikes; dropped none.

In those days, Mn played much the same role as Ni does today in batteries (brownstone? no, that would be Boston. DC, yes that's more like it!)

As for Li, that's even easier once you have the proper-sized micro membranes to filter it right out of sea-water. Or so I read, just a few years ago. Somewhere.

What goes around, gets dizzier.

 

[heltok]

I think that given what Musk has been doing on sharing some inventions on his many companies (SpaceX alloy on CT), we'd see more collab between them in the near future.

More specifically with SpaceX:
I believe Starlink will one day finds its way onto Tesla. In fact, I'd believe once Starlink is operational, Tesla would switch its connectivity to Starlink. The reason is quite simple, not only Starlink would suddenly have a huge customer base, Tesla kinda vertically integrates its connectivity... but its applications would also be incredible to say the least.

See how Google Streetview totally changed our way of using maps? Imagine instead of a yearly or bi-yearly update, you have a daily update? By the time Starlink is operational, there'd be millions of Tesla on road with millions coming every year. Being able to collect real world data in quasi-real time would be priceless. FSD would work much better when a pothole is reported by some cars so other cars can avoid it when passing the same spot.

Currently, it's cost-prohibitive for Tesla to transfer all interesting findings like traffic jam, pothole, debris, and more that Tesla cars see back to its center in realtime. Starlink solves that big bottleneck in the middle.

Not only can Tesla use that data, it can also sell that data feed to others. I'm sure Google would be the first in line to buy those.

Not sure if satellite antennas are ideal for cars... But put one starlink at every supercharger and have every Tesla uploading data while supercharging. And add one starlink to the solar roof/hvac solution also.

 

[JustSaying]

Ask Christine.

View attachment 576874

She's at the Petersen in LA.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294790605474689025?s=21

“a truly useful exaflop at de facto FP32”

Wow did Elon just say Dogo will be an absolutely powerful supercomputer?

FSD3 CPU is 60 GFLOPS or 60 x 10^9 FLOPS

Dogo will be 1 EFLOPS or 10^18 FLOPS

So DOJO is equivalent to 16,666,666 FSD computers.

Dang.

Dojo when complete will be one of the most powerful computers in the world, by some measures possibly the most powerful. The largest supercomputers are all more general purpose than Dojo, so not fully comparable, but are about 0.5 ExaFlop at present (TOP500 - Wikipedia). They are very expensive, with the largest costing on the order of $1 billion, and are the result of multiyear research efforts by corporations and universities that have specialised in supercomputers for decades. One major difference is that supercomputers usually use double floats (64 bits).

It is remarkable that Tesla have been able to design Dojo, so quickly as a first attempt and that it presumably costs much less than $1 billion. Many supercomputers struggle to achieve performance on real-world problems anywhere near the benchmarks, so a "truly usefu exaflop" would be again remarkable.

ExaFlop scale is about what is needed to simulate a human brain, although because we do not yet fully understand how the human brain is organised Dojo will probably fall short of the power and flexibility of the human brain.