Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

If he thinks a million battery can travel a million miles then that makes him a poor listener. Rob explained exactly what it is.

I think he got that point, he even responded that it means Tesla does not want its customers to buy a new car every 4-5 years, because a million miles would last the lifetime of the car (that is much longer).

I think he just has a separate expectation that battery day will also unveil a significantly longer range battery. For that point Rob did not categorically deny the possibility, just pointed out that is not the main focus (production capacity is much bigger take-away to be expected).

Cramer does not get that 400-500 mile range-per-charge (present in S - coming in cybertruck/roadster) is enough and you do not need longer, pointless.

 

[chronopublish]

Not to mention, that would means instead of charging for 30 mins, it would require charging for like 3.5 years on a super charger to fill up the battery. Lol

To be fair, after the first year of charging I'd look at my range of ~300,000 miles and just unplug the car.

 

[Tslynk67]

I love the blithe assumption that anybody anywhere has even the slightest chance of consistently catching the "lowest point" and a "local high". Doesn't happen other than occasionally by luck.

With weeklies that's indeed a tough proposition, but LEAPS allow for a lot more leeway with. Note I never mentioned "lowest point", just lower. For instance, C19 dip - we dropped from the $974 high to somewhere in the $350's, right? I sold 100 trading shares at $465 and bought 10x Jun 22 c1400 with the money. Not a lowest low, but obviously a low, sold them a couple of weeks later for 3x the money.

Just being there, or there abouts is good enough.

 

[Boomer19]

There's bid/asks but volume doesnt seem to be moving much.

https://i.gyazo.com/63eebaa0f58ff7103b4410fa4ff6708e.mp4

Bloomberg terminal indicates healthy volume though, so not sure what to think.

There was some technical issue with NASDAQ option quotes. Their primary option quote server was down since morning. We had to route to their backup. Pretty sure impact was street wide and dependent on particular brokerage technical setup if they can reroute to get quotes. if can't get quotes probably can't trade. So widely depends on the broker.

when i launch option trader in ib tws i get quotes for smart and all the individual working exchanges and no quotes for those listed in the bulletin

so it seems the functioning exchanges will have to carry the load for those that are not trading, whatever their reason.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

So it’s only Tuesday and they’re already trying to pin it at $2000.

 

[UkNorthampton]

If SpaceX want to build an e-VTOL then I guess Tesla would not mind selling them some batteries.

SpaceX should build cars - they'd get the $7500 federal credit. Oh and Neuralink and The Boring Company, even Kimble Musk

 

[UncaNed]

Who on this planet would ever think a battery would make 1 million Miles without recharging

 

[Nocturnal]

SpaceX should build cars - they'd get the $7500 federal credit. Oh and Neuralink and The Boring Company, even Kimble Musk

Sell Boring co a production line to develop Vans/mini busses and sell them batteries and power trains. Have Boring build their own transport vehicles and sell the vans as well. This would allow tapping into the credit, and provide a pilot program for Tesla to sell platforms to other automakers.

 

[MABMAB]

I want more cell production so I can sit in one of these and better consider ordering!

 

[Vad42]

If you told me 3 months ago that we'll be held at $2k on a red August day, I'd have LMAO and sold my kidneys to go all in.

I genuinely recommend keeping one of the kidneys as an investment of different kind.

 

[Tslynk67]

Helluva lot of monkey-business again today. About time we got one of those +10% days, has been a while since the last one. I feel like some arses need to be handed out on plates...

 

[printf42]

I don’t think that is the case, if it’s just NV GPUs, why would they simulate it using FPGAs?
I am guess he is referring to the current system which would be replaced by Dojo 1.0 as Dojo 0.1?

Now Elon clarified Dojo is not GPU.

Not exactly GPUs for NN. Lots of cores optimized for dot products with fast local memory & super high bandwidth between cores & efficient liquid cooling. Compiler needs to be optimized too.

Very different computers are needed for training vs inference. FSD is mostly Int8, but Dojo is de facto FP32 (feels like FP32, but actually FP16 with boring bits truncated) so we don’t need to rewrite all the training software. It should work almost immediately.

And it appears even Ark has not realized it’s potential.
Is it about the time for people to take a deeper look?

 

[FrankSG]

Not sure I follow the logic here, but I might just be a bit thick... Real life example:

On August 20th the SP was in the $1650's and I bought 2x Jun 22 c3500, total premium $55600 - enough to buy ~34 shares.

As of close yesterday, those two were trading at $410, so $82000, which would have bought me ~41 shares.

So, yes, I agree that LEAPS need to be bought in dips, when we get massive dips it's my experience that selling shares at the lowest point and converting to LEAPS will bring you much faster returns. But all things being equal, they outpace the share price.

Very few people hold to expiry, especially with such high strikes. Better to offload these at a local high and buy back in on a lower strike if you get the opportunity - and yes, will come, maybe not massive swings, but IV will crash at some point, that's the moment to buy in.

In any case, they are riskier than shares, that's 100% for sure, but less riskier than weeklies.

Yeah, but in the case you're describing it becomes a short(er) term play. Jun'22 LEAPs can work as a safer way to play the short term than with Nov'20s or Jan'21s for example, but yeah I don't think LEAPs are good to just buy, hold, and forget about right now, like they were last year, in January, and even in March/April.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, but in the case you're describing it becomes a short(er) term play. Jun'22 LEAPs can work as a safer way to play the short term than with Nov'20s or Jan'21s for example, but yeah I don't think LEAPs are good to just buy, hold, and forget about right now, like they were last year, in January, and even in March/April.

Agreed, and not sure if we'll ever get these scenarios again, hope not...

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Given the high energy and housing costs in CA, plus the incentives, I'm so confused why most people don't already own solar/battery.

Supply. With all the news about people waiting for their powerwalls, I've been looking at used leaf cells to DIY my own powerwall. There are plenty of videos on it. And thanks to the demand, it's pretty hard to get a good deal on leaf cells that have LOST 40% of their capacity already!

The demand far outstrips supply of cells at the moment. And our tariff war with China probably affects the supply of solar panels too.

 

[ZsoZso]

Let's assume @Artful Dodger 's theory about the dividend-split forcing the hands of the MM's to "legitimize" their naked shorting (by borrowing the shares and/or covering them). The current rally maybe an indication of that squeeze as it seems to be bigger than a usual reaction to stock-split (see AAPL). So what can we expect in the near-future ?
Here is my hypothesis (mind you I don't really know what I am talking about, so definitely do not take it as advice):

• Naked short squeeze continues until this Friday (21st) driven by MM's to legitimize their shenanigans
• Next week we trade mostly side-ways just following macros with usual high-beta multiple as the squeeze pressure is no longer in play, but MMs still cannot return to naked shorting until the split is executed (otherwise they would still need to cough up the extra 4 shares for each naked shorted one)
• The week following the split from 31st they can get back into naked shorting, plus all the traders who were front-running the split would be inclined to take profit, so I would expect a dip there
• Whenever the S&P500 committee pulls their *sugar* together and make the announcement of TSLA inclusion will trigger the next big run-up
• Battery day 22nd Sept will be another milestone which will trigger a runup and a following dip in the usual buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news style

So these are my expectations for the next month or so, although I have been known to be wrong about SP movements...

So far this is aging well, last week was squeezy all the way to Friday as anticipated, this week is looking to go side-ways as predicted, so first 2 steps looking good.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - hour ago: Giant Press For Tesla Model Y Reportedly In Place At Fremont Factory

Electrek - 3 hours ago: Tesla announces start of operations of 'world's largest casting machine' - Electrek

 

[vwman111]

Nah, this isn't change of "sentiment", this is shorting, and I suspect a coordinated attack yesterday - highest %age since beginning of July:

Edit - looks like they're at it again. More short term pain for long term gain, for us, that is!

View attachment 580489

If yesterday's opening spike down with huge volume was caused by those shorting the stock / market makers / market manipulators, etc... Who is causing today's opening spike up with huge volume? The same motley crew? Did they want the stock back up closer to $2000? If i recall from yesterday's posts, some of the comments said only the MMs would want to sell off that much volume so quickly to tank the price. Who is wanting to push that much volume for an instantaneous jump in share price?

 

[Singuy]

To be fair, after the first year of charging I'd look at my range of ~300,000 miles and just unplug the car.

Powered by dark matter.

 

[Tslynk67]

If yesterday's opening spike down with huge volume was caused by those shorting the stock / market makers / market manipulators, etc... Who is causing today's opening spike up with huge volume? The same motley crew? Did they want the stock back up closer to $2000? If i recall from yesterday's posts, some of the comments said only the MMs would want to sell off that much volume so quickly to tank the price. Who is wanting to push that much volume for an instantaneous jump in share price?

There are plenty of buyers, as we've seen since the splitterino was announced, it's natural for the stock to rise, or at worse, follow the index right now.

Remember that half the shorts aren't interested in making money, they have someone funding them, the rest are mental.

If there's any logic to shorting at this moment, it would be that after the last four $AAPL splits, the stock dropped and took several weeks to recover to the pre-split splice. Maybe some are betting this will happen now.

Also MM's can short in batches do dump the price, then cover nice and slow at the right moment so as not to push the price back up.