Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

Literally "at war as at war".

My translation — it’s a knife fight .

And looking for the portal gun...

 

[Zero CO2]

picked up 25 at $335

 

[Opus BC fan]

bought 12 at 334.50

 

[woodisgood]

Is today over yet?

Asking for a friend. Who wants today to be over.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Is today over yet?

Asking for a friend. Who wants today to be over.

That's funny....friend asked me the exact same question....or maybe it was me just thinking out loud.

 

[capster]

The war against whom or what?

Shorts?
Climate?
Indexes?
Human extinction?
OEMs?

Oui.

 

[Todd Burch]

Seems obvious, but to keep the count accurate:

Teslanaire--;

For now.

 

[avoigt]

She is bang on with that analysis. NKLA's stock price reaction to this news is completely unhinged.

They just handed nearly all of their margins directly to GM. The only margin left for them to realize is on the whatever spread they think they can achieve in consumer prices versus GMs costs. NKLA will produce essentially nothing, and thus have no means of materializing markup on anything it actually produces. Better hope that GM is able to keep costs down low enough that the vehicles can actually be sold at a price point that consumers are willing to actually buy the vehcile.

Granted, it's only for one of their "products"... oh wait... no it's not... GM just got exclusivity to supply NKLA on a cost plus basis (i.e., GM will never lose money; even if NKLA does) on ALL of its battery and fuel cells for their semi truck production as well. Again, better hope that GM is capable of delivery those at a reasonable cost since last I checked the battery is the most expensive part of the vehicle.

I'm not sure how this is in any way a good deal for NKLA.

Its a horrible deal!

Without knowing anything about Nikola that small print only is a reason to sell all Nikola shares.

The Market is upside down today. Tesla with all the good news losing big time and Nikola with all bad new gaining

Makes no sense at all but with enough time everything will adjust

 

[Paul_SF]

$666 by the EOY . Seen it here 1st! /s

 

[vikings123]

I’m not seeing a whole lot of reaction to the 10-14 week timeframe for everything except model 3. I recall it switching to 8-12 weeks during the last month of previous quarter but not sure if the timeframe changed this early in the month.

Possible options

A. Demand for all production in NA is accounted for. This would make sense if the Model Y delivery timeframe did not change but strangely enough Model AWD and Performance also have a 10-14 week timeframe. So I don’t think this would make sense but why turn away potential buyers with these new dates. I guess it is possible that the demand for all models except model 3 is through the roof so maybe not very sensible to rule this out. Maybe we will soon hear that Fremont Model Ys is getting shipped to RoW?

B. Elon alluded to potential supply chain and manufacturing issues in Q2 ER. Is it possible that the ramp up from new battery technology is expected to be slow and this new battery technology will be used in all new cars while model 3 will get it’s batteries from Panasonic? Or are we seeing battery supply chain issues in general? Is the ATM offering related to this?

C. Tesla is trying to underdeliver and over promise as usual.

It sure looks like it will be an interesting September as we hear more about deliveries/estimates from @Troy etc. and how Tesla plans to phase in any new battery technology.

Thoughts?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Why would they do that if they can sell every one they can make in North America?

If Y production ramps again they may not be able to sell every one in NA at current pricing. Shipping AWD/P to Europe might make more sense than introducing LR-RWD in the US. Or maybe they see strategic reasons to bring it to Europe now so ID.4/Enyaq don't get a head start. But for now I'm more interested in if than why.

 

[Todd Burch]

GREEN!

 

[jerry33]

[email protected]

 

[mrmage]

Lucid Air prices revealed ahead of unveiling event
130K +
seems reveal is tomorrow ...

$161k for the sub 10 second quarter mile edition. Taycan level pricing with plaid level performance.

Also, bought Nov 280/320 call spreads. I’ll buy another tranche each time there’s a drop.

 

[Svetlin]

with stockprice at $343, levered up in my trading account by switching all common shares to Jun 2021 300 Calls. Gives me about 2.1x leverage.

breakeven around $412.

Breakeven for the options position may be $412, but you should also calculate at what price the options would start making you more money than if you just held the stock. $412 is 0% return on your new option position (thus breakeven). But if you did nothing and held your stock, and we were back at $412 by June 2021, that would be a 20% gain. So you would be forgoing 20% profit at $412. Your true "breakeven" price for this move is something higher than $412. That's the cost of leverage.

I assume you know this, just pointing it out in case it's useful to someone.

 

[capster]

I just love these videos - Giga Berlin:

I love how Elon and Tesla seem to have made it a race between countries to finish these factories the fastest with national pride on the line.

 

[traxila]

Down 440 presplit. Crazy Crazy number.

I was on record! Did not want this split!

Any chance this gets better tomorrow?

Wait, wait skyrocketing now!

No...not really.

Hey, can't wait until battery day!

Good thing I only trade in one account....

I actually did dump my aapl post split in my IRA....because that is what you do with these stupid splits. Gonna buy back at some point. But with TSLA had this stupid S&P thing muck up the works. Oof. Stock still moving 80 points a day except now I have five times the shares...

Do we have a PR at 5:15pm perchance?

Thanks for listening.

 

[EV forever]

Seems obvious, but to keep the count accurate:

Teslanaire--;

For now.

So, what do we call someone who loses >1M in a day in TSLA?

 

[wipster]

While today sucks, I find this C&D comment hilarious:

 

[iPlug]

...Companies like Amazon and Facebook had to wait a quarter+ from qualification to inclusion. The likelihood of a conspiracy is far lower than just careful consideration by the committee...

Not trying to push a conspiracy as the only or most likely possibility, but something to ponder. Careful consideration is certainly a possibility, maybe even the primary or only reason.

But as mentioned, Amazon and Facebook would also have come off to traditional investors and committee gatekeepers as not following many of the usual "rules". Their market valuations, profitability, and trajectories looked like some kind of bubble magic or mania to many.