Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

I don't know. I think there is gray area there. What if Robotaxis never happen for whatever reason, but Tesla is able to sell 10k+ driver assist software that flawlessly drives attentive drivers around for either personal use or ride sharing.

This is quite possible, even likely IMO. I'm just saying there is no gray area in Ark's scenarios.

I believe their non-robotaxi ("High Functioning EV Company") max of $3,400 is far too low. Said this many times before. I have no doubt Telsa's market cap will exceed $1T without robotaxis by 2024/25.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I always interpreted "Teslanaire" to mean making enough money from TSLA to buy a Tesla car

 

[gabeincal]

It’s been impossible to keep up with this thread. Would be nice to have a separate locked thread that is just a re-posting of all the best/most informative posts of the day without all the filler. Problem would be finding someone to volunteer for this job. (I would if I was retired.)

It's called Reddit.

 

[Buckminster]

OT

Te$lanaire or Tes£anaire - T€slanaire for our European friends

Hmm EU are threatening to sue us right now for breaking some rules - I suppose that's what friends do these days.

This is an open invitation to @Hock1, @Boomer19, @Curt Renz and the other active and retired investment professionals to chime in, whether in support of or contrary to my expressed opinion. I will keep such discussion in this thread so long as I consider it germane to the topic of “Investments”, even if not expressly to “TSLA”.

Who are you and what have you done with AudubonB?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Zero.

Battery powered lawn mower and weed wacker.

Actually getting rid of those old gas cans for the lawn mowers was a major hassle.

I would like to get a snow blower, but the electric ones are toys. Not sure what I am going to do.

I bought an Electric snow blower last winter. It’s just an hyperactive shovel.
Instead of lifting snow I’m just jamming the snow blower in the snow and it goes airborne

 

[OrthoSurg]

I always interpreted "Teslanaire" to mean making enough money from TSLA to buy a Tesla car

Teslionaire is someone who is Lion on the stock. Kills the bears and go make the bulls go further and faster.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Averages are worthless when there is one huge yes-or-no, feast-or-famine determinant that overshadows everything else. Hence, the cancer cure analogy.

Either robotaxis happen or they do not. This is the basis of Ark's two separate share price scenarios: (1) $3,400 and less or (2) $15K and greater.

It’s easier to think in deterministic space, but that’s not how their analysis was done. They gave 30% odds that autonomy would happen by 2021 and 70% odds that it would never happen (at least not before 2025). Pretty reasonable in my mind. Their results show that even with rather low odds, the value of autonomy is so high that it skews the expected value way above the valuation of the best non-autonomy case. I think that’s valuable information.

Maybe it would have been more informative for them to present two expected values - one with 100% probability of autonomy and one with 0% and let everyone reach their own conclusion about what to do with those numbers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some silly shortzes is self-imolating trying to get TSLA to go red b4 Close. That's gonna leave a mark...

Up +2.0% at 15:52 PM

 

[DragonWatch]

Friendly Forward Observer.
Fundamental ~ If new battery can last a million miles, then how many cars will I need to purchase over a lifetime? We, my life-partner (wife) and I, have purchased over 47 years together around eighteen, mostly new cars/trucks. Looking forward, probably will not replace the Model X. Option I ~ is to buy newer X down the road and pass the old one down to daughters family. Option II ~ keep until/forever. The fossil fuel vehicle (truck) will find its time/usage limited ~ needed to haul load or high base to get out during snow buildup. With COVID-19 mileage reduced significantly. Two years ago, I had to shovel the X out of snow.

Therefore, if the need to purchase a new car is reduced; that significantly reduces the purchase of new cars/trucks across the board. Used Tesla vehicles like any used car puts the brand steering-wheel in the hands of people that cannot/do not have the luxury to buy new cars every couple of years.

Template example. If I purchase one Tesla car VS Joe Fossil buying three new GM, Ford, etc, why is saving more money? Less time fossil fueling at station, as opposed to Supercharger and Starbucks on double star day. FYI ~ we have not used a Supercharger in over a year. I do not miss the filling station social scene with our truck at all ~ thank you very much.

While new Tesla's account for about 1% +/- (hope I got that right) of the market, look down range for impact of Tesla's ~ not the monthly sales. The impact will be grater than the nose on our face. People are still born with noses ~ right?

 

[Fred42]

@engle

Do you have an update on how Tesla service is doing these days in Norway?

 

[Mo City]

It’s easier to think in deterministic space, but that’s not how their analysis was done. They gave 30% odds that autonomy would happen by 2021 and 70% odds that it would never happen (at least not before 2025). Pretty reasonable in my mind. Their results show that even with rather low odds, the value of autonomy is so high that it skews the expected value way above the valuation of the best non-autonomy case. I think that’s valuable information.

Maybe it would have been more informative for them to present two expected values - one with 100% probability of autonomy and one with 0% and let everyone reach their own conclusion about what to do with those numbers.

Hopefully my final comment (which I will repeat once again),

I saw an interview where the questioner noticed the huge $3,400 to $15K gap and asked one of Ark's analysts about it. They admitted $7K was just a middle number and their valuation of TSLA was really a yes/no outcome of robotaxis with no in-between.

 

[Christine69420]

Do you have an update on how Tesla service is doing these days in Norway?

Only anecdotal. I ordered a service myself a few days back. Got an appointment less than 2 weeks later. So capacity seems OK - the old situation where you had to wait for months seem to be history.

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is quite possible, even likely IMO. I'm just saying there is no gray area in Ark's scenarios.

I believe their non-robotaxi ("High Functioning EV Company") max of $3,400 is far too low. Said this many times before. I have no doubt Telsa's market cap will exceed $1T without robotaxis by 2024/25.

I don’t disagree. Could be due to two things:
1) The input assumptions to their valuation model
2) The model construct itself, along with hidden assumptions

As to 1), they list three primary inputs to their model (range worst to best):
a) Gross Margins: 25% (20% likelihood) to 40% (80% likelihood)
b) Capital Efficiency (factory cost): $16K/unit/yr (50% likelihood) to $11K/unit/yr (50% likelihood)
c) Robotaxi Value ($2.50/mile falling to $1.00/mile, 50% platform fee): never available (70% likelihood) to 2021 available (30% likelihood).

I’ve never dug into the numbers for a) and b) to see how we are progressing on those.

As to 2), I believe I read that ARK made their model available for download. I’ve considered looking for it and digging into it, but in my experience there is nothing more miserable than slogging through someone else's spreadsheet.

 

[Cobos]

Do you have an update on how Tesla service is doing these days in Norway?

Mostly they are doing fine. My last encounters with Tesla Service in Oslo has been fairly good and the wait time is down to 1-3 weeks depending a bit on exactly when. Though Rud seems to have some very uneven service. Some of the people there are good and some are bad. So in total I would say OK+ ? Though it's not good enough that those that have "learned" from friends that it was horrible has necissarily realised it's not bad any longer.

 

[Intl Professor]

I bought an Electric snow blower last winter. It’s just an hyperactive shovel.
Instead of lifting snow I’m just jamming the snow blower in the snow and it goes airborne

The snow or the blower? Englitch? If the latter, your neighbors may be laughing their asses off, or trying to mock your behavior with whatever mule is available.

 

[jpsgoneev]

Why Tesla Has NOT Been Added to the S&P 500 (Ep. 115)

I agree with Dave's take that Tesla's non-inclusion shows the bias and/or skepticism by the committee, as Establishment, towards Innovators/Distruptors, for which the goal post gets moved.

 

[willow_hiller]

Possibly OT. Possibly indicative of something...

Tesla has blocked third-party access to their API, including TeslaFi: Looks like Teslafi has been blocked by Tesla : teslamotors

Would Tesla cut off this access if they weren't planning on rolling out similar functionality themselves? Or possibly features that required a more locked-down API.

 

[sonofjorel]

I just noticed that Oct 30 options are out. Highest strike price is $420. Putting it out there in case anyone is thinking about capturing Battery Day, Q3 P&D, and earnings report in as short a time frame as possible. Can obviously wait just before Battery Day but you never know if there will be a run up in SP as the day approaches. I guess it depends on how you think the event will play out.

 

[saniflash]

I just noticed that Oct 30 options are out. Highest strike price is $420. Putting it out there in case anyone is thinking about capturing Battery Day, Q3 P&D, and earnings report in as short a time frame as possible. Can obviously wait just before Battery Day but you never know if there will be a run up in SP as the day approaches. I guess it depends on how you think the event will play out.

reminder to myself -- TSLA usually takes longer than I expect it to price in good news -- thus do not burn yourself again with options too short after the good news </reminder>

 

[StealthP3D]

I still say that if GM can sneak in more tax credits by having Nikola sell cars then Tesla should do this with the Boring Co.

That could lead to some interesting comments at the water cooler:

co-worker 1: I picked up my new car this morning.
co-worker 2: Congratulations! What kind of car did you get?
co-worker 1: It's a Boring car.
co-worker 2: (confused) Why would you get a boring car?
co-worker 1: For the tax credit. But it's really not very boring, it will go 0-60 in under 3 seconds!
co-worker 2: