Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

I would suggest that were Mr Biden to have spent political time in Michigan by touting Tesla, even when agglomerated with other manufacturers, that would have been a surefire way for him to lose votes.

Pick your battles carefully, especially if you’re running for election.

We don't really have time for any more of this bullshit society is playing. He is running on the exact opposite everything Trump represents except this? Because corporate money? Please. Then he should have someone on his staff that is as knowledgeable as one of us and have him ride into those places in a Tesla. Let him talk about it with "those voters". Educate them. Get some photos if they need a "photo shoot".

Hell, if anything put a damn Rivian truck in that shot....anything really. EPIC FAIL.

 

[Cherry Wine]

We don't really have time for any more of this bullshit society is playing. He is running on the exact opposite everything Trump represents except this? Because corporate money? Please. Then he should have someone on his staff that is as knowledgeable as one of us and have him ride into those places in a Tesla. Let him talk about it with "those voters". Educate them. Get some photos if they need a "photo shoot".

Hell, if anything put a damn Rivian truck in that shot....anything really. EPIC FAIL.

He’s pandering to the rust belt. You think those folks, afraid for their jobs, want to see Biden shilling for the CA company that they’re increasingly concerned will be eating their lunch in 3-5 years? Or would you rather he piss off a bunch of voters, increasing his odds of losing the election, and we really see disastrous effects from that? Audubon is dead on here.

 

[traxila]

We don't really have time for any more of this bullshit society is playing. He is running on the exact opposite everything Trump represents except this? Because corporate money? Please. Then he should have someone on his staff that is as knowledgeable as one of us and have him ride into those places in a Tesla. Let him talk about it with "those voters". Educate them. Get some photos if they need a "photo shoot".

Hell, if anything put a damn Rivian truck in that shot....anything really. EPIC FAIL.

What we really do not have time for is another Trump term.

Those are all battleground states we are looking at, and Tesla probably does not play well in any of them, or EVs in general. Even the ‘progressive’ unions have come out and attacked EVs as job killers. So pick and choose your battles does apply here.

I am similarly tired of the realpolitik at play. Corporatists disguised as politicians have been running the show for a while now. It is what we have to deal with.

I could go on but I end it here and apologize. Wrong thread.

 

[hobbes]

Interesting development in Germany regarding the new V3 superchargers: It seems like all EVs with CCS plugs can charge there for now and for free: Tesla bug allows other electric cars to charge for free at new Superchargers - Electrek

Officially it is a software bug. But as nextmove note in their video, very impressive that a whole bunch of even old EVs (2017 Opel Ampera E..) as well as very new (ID3 which just started deliveries yesterday) can charge there with no technical problems, including stopping the charging process by pressing just the button on the SC cable. They speculate that this is really an inofficial test... Love it .

EDIT: @Tes La Ferrari beat me to it!

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon tweeted, regarding the dramatically better “4D” (aka simultaneous surround video from 8 cameras) architecture:
"Releasing private beta in 2 to 4 weeks, public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after that, then all US Tesla owners mid December. Above schedule is contingent upon not encountering major unexpected setbacks."

Now, Elon's history with predicting Tesla firmware feature release dates, especially anything to do with auto-pilot, is notoriously bad. I continue to be hopeful, but I don't actually expect to see any of this (as an ordinary FSD user) before some time in 2021.

Anybody here think that this time it's different?

 

[ggr]

Interesting development in Germany regarding the new V3 superchargers: It seems like all EVs with CCS plugs can charge there for now and for free: Tesla bug allows other electric cars to charge for free at new Superchargers - Electrek

Officially it is a software bug. But as nextmove note in their video, very impressive that a whole bunch of even old EVs (2017 Opel Ampera E..) as well as very new (ID3 which just started deliveries yesterday) can charge there with no technical problems, including stopping the charging process by pressing just the button on the SC cable. They speculate that this is really an inofficial test... Love it .

I think it is marketing. "Wow, charging at superchargers is so much less hassle than everywhere else! Tesla owners have it good!" The commercial networks I have used are nothing like the supercharger experience; Blink often just doesn't work, and Chargepoint I often spend about 5 minutes figuring out how to connect -- the ones I use most are when I go to a conference at UC Santa Barbara, and they're on the lower level of the garage, slightly underground, so I can't use the cellphone app to authenticate and bill.

 

[UCF3]

Allowing VW and others to use the supercharger network might be Tesla’s first attempt to avoid antitrust issues. It’s been discussed here in the past that unless other EV companies step up in a big way with manufacturing, charging and energy then Tesla will be accused of being a monopoly.

 

[bkp_duke]

Allowing VW and others to use the supercharger network might be Tesla’s first attempt to avoid antitrust issues. It’s been discussed here in the past that unless other EV companies step up in a big way with manufacturing, charging and energy then Tesla will be accused of being a monopoly.

But the ICE manufacturers have the monopoly on . . . stupid.

So doesn't that make things fair.

 

[MP3Mike]

In common usage, dealership means franchised dealerships. That's why Tesla is very careful to not use the word dealership. The "dealer" in dealership implies a middleman. Tesla has stores and galleries.

They may call them stores, but legally they are dealerships. They have to apply for a dealership license in the state to be able to sell cars.

 

[Knightshade]

Elon tweeted, regarding the dramatically better “4D” (aka simultaneous surround video from 8 cameras) architecture:
"Releasing private beta in 2 to 4 weeks, public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after that, then all US Tesla owners mid December. Above schedule is contingent upon not encountering major unexpected setbacks."

Now, Elon's history with predicting Tesla firmware feature release dates, especially anything to do with auto-pilot, is notoriously bad. I continue to be hopeful, but I don't actually expect to see any of this (as an ordinary FSD user) before some time in 2021.

Anybody here think that this time it's different?

I think it's possible they hit that date in terms of releasing the core re-write code but not adding any new functionality.

The visualizations would be a lot better and smoother (no more vehicles randomly jumping around because the car doesn't understand what it saw in camera 3 is the same car it now sees in camera 2)....and that might improve overall smoothness and behavior in other ways (handling tighter turns, ramps, etc)....but nothing "new" yet.

I think expecting actual new promised features like handling intersections or reverse summon by December fleetwide is.....highly Elonmistic.

 

[Knightshade]

Allowing VW and others to use the supercharger network might be Tesla’s first attempt to avoid antitrust issues. It’s been discussed here in the past that unless other EV companies step up in a big way with manufacturing, charging and energy then Tesla will be accused of being a monopoly.

...that's....not at all how anti-trust laws work....

"You're the only major player in the field because nobody's bothering to keep up" isn't an illegal monopoly unless you're doing something illegal to stop them from keeping up with you.

(and their charging network isn't remotely a monopoly at all in the first place)

 

[Singuy]

What's the size of the revenue we're talking about here?

Half a billion

 

[elasalle]

As an Energy Provider (Autobidder etc), it will make even more sense for Super Chargers to be open to more consumers(other EVs). cheers!!

 

[Knightshade]

Half a billion

Worth noting at least some of that will be revenue taken for the version of FSD they were selling prior to March 2019- and they won't be able to recognize all that revenue until they deliver at least L4 self driving- since that's what was promised to those buyers.

The buyers after that though? L2 that handles driving on city streets and they've delivered everything promised on the sales page to those folks and can recognize any remaining revenue there (and going forward too)

 

[bhtooefr]

...that's....not at all how anti-trust laws work....

"You're the only major player in the field because nobody's bothering to keep up" isn't an illegal monopoly unless you're doing something illegal to stop them from keeping up with you.

(and their charging network isn't remotely a monopoly at all in the first place)

However, monopolists and near-monopolists tend to be treated much more strictly than small players as far as anticompetitive actions go, and a player staying visibly well away from the line sometimes is treated by governments much more kindly than one going right up to the line of what's legal, as they're demonstrating that they're acting in good faith.

 

[perwis]

Rant is right. He lost me at "e=mc^2"


But, Gali's view that it's because of outdated PE type metrics is just wrong. The truth is less obvious and more ingrained into human psychology.

Investing is about predicting the future better than everyone else.

It's not about beating old men using PE ratios to guide their investments.

Yes, I am sure you are right that Gali's view is too simple, and I think you are more correct.

But I do not see such a big difference between what you and Gali are saying, essentially that "Mr Market" has trouble valuing corporations correctly, and that the world is changing, quicker than theory.

Reminds me of Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson's blurb for JJ Siegel's book The Future for Investors:

"Jeremy Siegel makes a persuasive case for a long-run, buy-and-hold investment strategy. Read it. Profit from it. And when short-run storms rock your ship, sleep well from a rational conviction that you have done the prudent thing. And if you are a practitioner of economic science like me, ponder as to when this new philosophy of prudence will self-destruct after Siegel’s readers come some day to be universally imitated."

Well, Siegel was sceptical of technology companies, and recommended traditional value stocks, and look where we are now.

And Clayton Christensen, bless him, did not believe that Apple would disrupt the mobile industry. One of his followers (I will not name names here) and brilliant Apple analyst I respect a lot, made a pod-cast essentially based on the thesis that Electric drivetrains were not a disruptive technology and that Tesla would NOT disrupt the auto industry,..

So, yes, we are all trying to outsmart Mr Market, but as most of us have noticed, it is maybe not so hard as THEY want us to believe.

There is no SPoon...

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1304610793225293824
TESLA EUROPE ELECTRICITY - CASE STUDY In the UK if you have a Tesla car, Powerwall and solar you can add sign up for a “Tesla Tariff” with Octopus Energy This gives you 24-hour electricity @ 8p per kWh which is almost half price

 

[brianhn1]

I think it is marketing. "Wow, charging at superchargers is so much less hassle than everywhere else! Tesla owners have it good!" The commercial networks I have used are nothing like the supercharger experience; Blink often just doesn't work, and Chargepoint I often spend about 5 minutes figuring out how to connect -- the ones I use most are when I go to a conference at UC Santa Barbara, and they're on the lower level of the garage, slightly underground, so I can't use the cellphone app to authenticate and bill.

Love it, I thought of the same. Maybe Tesla is getting non Tesla branded vehicles a “courtesy” charge for a couple times, a taste of convenience and will influence them on their next vehicle will need to be a Tesla. It’s the owner that will be feeling guilty for getting some charge for “free” in their non Tesla.

“Look at me! I posted online charging at a Tesla supercharger in my non Tesla!”

“Tesla saved my day because I couldn’t find a working charger anywhere else! And I was able to get back home!”

“Thank goodness there is a Tesla supercharger nearby in case my non Tesla ever needed it!”

“That’s so nice of Tesla! I wonder if Tesla owners get the same reciprocal benefit?”

 

[Words of HABIT]

Yeah, that 'purple-patch' was some side-eye, wot? There's ALREADY a specific rule requiring that the sum of the previous 4 quarters be profitable, not just the latest quarter to avoid 'flashes-in-the-pan'.

Face it: Tesla is Legit. The S&P old foggies are setting themselves up to be the biggest losers in this contest, and that's shorting something...

But you know what would be a real punk-ass move? Announcing a new S&P 500 inclusion for a not-previously-listed company like Zoom (ZM) the day before Battery Day, just to tank the SP and nullify the bounce expected from all the good news.

I can see those old boys thinking about it right now, wondering how to pull it off.

@Artful Dodger, cool new treads!

S&P has just shot themselves into irrelevancy. S&P is history. Tesla is the future which they cannot grasp.
Saw this article noted on my news feed shared by CNBC, from Lizzy Gurdus of ETF Edge. The title says it all. Ha ha, yes, it was an anal move on their part.

Link to article:
'Investors will go to other indices' after the S&P 500's Tesla snub, market analyst says

When Tesla does join the S&P, their Share Price will be far greater than $500. S&P missed their opportunity to get Tesla in their index on the cheap in advance of Battery Day and Q3 P&D numbers.

Also, in addition to Tesla's advance, S&P's high flyers are faltering. So TSLA is growing, and overall Market Cap of S&P included companies is falling dramatically. Let's look at yesterday, September 11th, 2020 alone whereby TSLA gained $2.1B in Market Cap compared to the combined Market Cap losses of only AMZN, AAPL, FB, MSFT and GOOG totalling -$88.5B. This is for one day. When Tesla joins S&P weeks, months or years from now the effect will be astronomical. And if Tesla never joins the S&P, whatever. S&P will be known as the "the index that includes the top 500 companies in the US except the top number one company." Most definitely investors will go elsewhere to other indexes that include Tesla.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Explain further...sounds fun......possibly

I mean, with the people you disagree with on the forums, as opposed to your wife if you disagree...