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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Me, too. My bet is Tesla will run a side by side comparison of the old way they have made cells and packs with the new way with a timer and pack count. The difference should be huge and dramatic and very importantly accessable to investor comprehension. Analysts will be able to infer from speed changes in battery production, much higher sales units which even the more bullish analysts are low on going 5 years out.
I'm skeptical about "investor comprehension", an oxymoron for those outside this forum; its a crap shoot weather or not enough average broker/investors register the value of battery day enough to affect the SP like we think it will. It's harder to understand than a simple P/D or earnings report $x.xx per share.
 
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Well, we've closed the gap with yesterday, now can we get those MMs to defend all those 450 Puts?

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2020-09-17.10-12.png

Cheers!
 
I'm skeptical about "investor comprehension", an oxymoron for those outside this forum; its a crap shoot weather or not enough average broker/investors register the value of battery day enough to affect the SP like we think it will. It's harder to understand than a simple P/D or earnings report $x.xx per share.
While I’m expecting technical jargon, I think this go around they do a better job putting things in layman’s terms. Along with that, some fun.
 
While I’m expecting technical jargon, I think this go around they do a better job putting things in layman’s terms. Along with that, some fun.

Like maybe Elon will throw one of those cells in the air and Franz will shoot it with a shotgun. "Hahaha...Whoa that explosion was bigger than we thought...hahahha!"

Something like that?
 
True packing efficiency is worse but compare it to the fact that each 54980 cell is ~ 9 times bigger than 2170 cell. Consider 9 2170 cells packed in a 3x3 square and you will see that the surface that they occupy is 37% more than 1 single 54980 cell including packing. Thus a 240 miles SR+ could give 330 miles if the pack is simply replaced with 54980 cells without increasing pack size. But I am sure there is more to it because a larger cell allows simpler pack electronics and construction and therefore makes cell to pack feasible. A larger cell may also be more energy dense than the smaller cell due to increase in active area and materials.
Basically without improving chemistry, Tesla dramatically improved pack level energy density by simply changing the cell and pack construction. This pack is not only energy dense but also allows faster charging. There always been a fundamental tradeoff between faster charging and energy density. Bigger cells allow longer range but not faster charging due to internal resistance but Tesla seems to have broken this limit or at least pushed this limit far out enough to not matter anymore for practical purposes.

So... using a rough example pack dimension of 4'x8' (~1248x2496mm):

21mm diameter cells-

Triangular Pattern
Maximum number of circles with the triangular pattern inside the 1248 x 2496 rectangle is: 8015
21tri.png


As a 21mm cell has an area of 10.5^2 x 3.14 = 346.2mm^2, that means 8015 cells cover 2,774,673 mm^2


For a (assumed) 54mm diameter cell-

Triangular Pattern
Maximum number of circles with the triangular pattern inside the 1248 x 2496 rectangle is: 1193

54mmtri.png


As a 54mm cell has an area of 27^2 x 3.14 = 2289mm^2, that means 1193 cells cover 2,730,849mm^2



So.. indeed the packing density is worse, but only very slightly at about 1.6%. However that ignores the lesser percentage of each of the larger cell's volume that will be apportioned to casing material, as opposed to actual anode/electrode volume. I'd suspect that might make up for the slightly less efficient packing... and maybe even give the larger cells an edge...

This of course ignores cell height, which isn't really a factor for packing in a single stack, and would need to be the same dimension to compare apples-to-apples for total cell count. It also ignores any volumetric improvement in the vertical dimension that may be attributable to the tabless design and/or integrated cap & current collector...
 
True packing efficiency is worse but compare it to the fact that each 54980 cell is ~ 9 times bigger than 2170 cell. Consider 9 2170 cells packed in a 3x3 square and you will see that the surface that they occupy is 37% more than 1 single 54980 cell including packing. Thus a 240 miles SR+ could give 330 miles if the pack is simply replaced with 54980 cells without increasing pack size. But I am sure there is more to it because a larger cell allows simpler pack electronics and construction and therefore makes cell to pack feasible. A larger cell may also be more energy dense than the smaller cell due to increase in active area and materials.
Basically without improving chemistry, Tesla dramatically improved pack level energy density by simply changing the cell and pack construction. This pack is not only energy dense but also allows faster charging. There always been a fundamental tradeoff between faster charging and energy density. Bigger cells allow longer range but not faster charging due to internal resistance but Tesla seems to have broken this limit or at least pushed this limit far out enough to not matter anymore for practical purposes.
Might almost squeeze a few 2170 cells between those big new cells for tighter density...
 
So can we finally get a $30k car? Tesla can have high margins on the S and X, but let's finally hit that next level of customers. It's all about accelerating the transition right? :) I still have too many people in my life saying $35k is too expensive for them....these are small families my age (mid 30s) that have at least two kids.
Model 3 will gradually drift down in retail price, but it's going to be slow'n'steady as Tesla is currently in the 'optimization' phase of the Model 3 life-cycle, not the 'giant-leap forward' stage.

The next big revolution is going to be the Model 2. It'll be $25K, have cast aluminum chasis structures, with an LFP heart, and sold by the millions. :D

EDIT: With Roadrunner-derived bty tech, Model's 2 will have tabless LFP cells, made with Maxwell dry bty electrode (DBE) manufacturing tech, in a pack with total performance as good or better as the current generation of NCA cells, with a pack approaching $75/kwh cost.

I predict a 40 kwh pack costing $3.000 in a practical 4-seater car weighing 2,850 lbs. I look for close to 300 miles range in this $25K Model 2 by 2023/4. MILLIONS will be sold.

BONUS PREDICTION: Eventually, Tesla offers a RR-LFP bty pack in the std range Semi, and the RR-NCM (Dahn chemistry) in the LR Semi, both with a similar weight. LR Semi ↑rge ↑ cost and SR Semi ↓rge ↓cost.

Cheers!
 
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There is a thing called reality. I should say it is surprisingly unpopular. People apparently like to embellish their lives with made up stuff.False religions allow people to benefit from other people who are promised stuff once they are dead. Never a complaint about the false religion not being true. It is also possible to make up false stuff yourself. However, it is sincerely recommended to base your opinions and actions on what is verifiable. Correlation does not imply causation. Just like some religion might be right in some respect, your hypothesis might be true. However, you having a particular opinion does not make things real. So, it is best to stick to verifiable facts and logic, and base your decisions on the best available data (fundamentals).

Could save you from financial predators, such as false (hydrogen) prophets as well.

Yet I'm not the only one linking the 2...
 
Like maybe Elon will throw one of those cells in the air and Franz will shoot it with a shotgun. "Hahaha...Whoa that explosion was bigger than we thought...hahahha!"

Something like that?

I just want Franz to come out with a sledge hammer and mock hit a new moduleless pack and then say "just kidding" But seriously if he could hit the pack without damaging it that would be cool (pun intended).
 
Am I alone in finding myself continually multiplying all the price movements by 5? It's taking me a long time to get used to these post split numbers and even longer to these movements when you multiply them by 5.
It's a wonder our trading platforms haven't the functionality to view pre-split prices parenthetically besides the current prices.