Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Am I alone in thinking we're going to tank after battery day, no matter how good it is? I then expect a rebound much higher after a week or so once the implications properly sink in with the wider investing community.

Elon is pumping battery day so much that it feels like he's going to be laying out the death knell for ICE & Oil - so there's a fair bit baked in already.

I think it will depend on just how amazing his forecast scaling and cost reductions get to. If he said roadrunner cells had a 15% density increase, a 15% cost reduction, and moderate scaling then I think we'd dip. But if either of those numbers are 25%+ and he's using easily scalable material (e.g LFP, or zero cobalt) then I think we'll be above $500 on Friday.

Edit: A drastically faster charging speed would likely cause a bump too.

 

[YAWD]

Might almost squeeze a few 2170 cells between those big new cells for tighter density...

This might cause cell imbalance during charging/discharging.

 

[Mike Smith]

The Musk Method: Learn from partners, then go it alone

"Elon doesn't want any part of his business to be dependent on someone else," said one former senior executive at Tesla who declined to be named. "And for better or worse - sometimes better, sometimes worse - he thinks he can do it better, faster and cheaper."

"Elon thought he could improve on everything the suppliers did - everything," said former Tesla supply chain executive Tom Wessner, who is now head of industry consultancy Imprint Advisors. "He wanted to make everything."

"Tell him 'No', and then he really wants to do it," said a third former Tesla veteran.

"(Elon) learned about (autonomy) and took it a step further. We asked our engineers to shoot for the moon. He went straight for Mars," said a senior Daimler engineer said.

 

[ninpb]

Tesla has installed batteries at ~60 Electrify America charging stations, more are coming - Electrek

VW paying for powerpacks. A lot of them. What TMC knew about 3 weeks ago.

I would love to have this labeled as magic accounting like emissions credit since you know, it's not a car sale.

 

[Unpilot]

Newb question....what time is Battery day at?
I have to travel on the 22nd....so I may need to pull over at some point.

 

[MartinAustin]

Speculation, if there was any major update of S or X, maybe they'd clear all the old inventory. Could this account for the missing showroom stock?

There are clues to look for when suspecting a refresh.
1) making space at the factory for all the new parts, to reduce switchover time. Wheels recently got simplified at the factory so you can't order as many combinations - but that means less stuff taking up space.
2) delivery times go up... suspiciously before a product reveal... but not too soon before the reveal. Two weeks is perfect.
3) Your showrooms will not want to have the old-looking products. Even if you can't get the new-looking products into the showroom for a while, you want to clear out the old stuff. 10 days prior to the reveal.
4) production lines going down? shifts being pared back? This is what happened during the switch to Raven, which was smaller than what is probably coming up.
5) Employee car parking spaces being a bit more available at the plant? I concede some of these things are beyond my ability to discern... help from others is needed.

IMO the S+X will get the new batteries first. It's a low-volume product compared to the others. IMO Elon will want all automotive products to have the new batteries. Panasonic is adding manufacturing capacity (using its old tech) for Tesla Energy, though I would expect some of Tesla's patented tech to end up in the Panasonic machinery, or even, everything gets converted over eventually - especially if there is more environmental waste/complications with the older tech.

I'm wondering if the Roadster used to have a one-pack-on-top-of-the-other design, but following some of the latest developments they have been able to revise that back to one layer, and re-engineer the floorpan of the car.

Back to TSLA... I'm optimistic the stock can climb back to a neutral or green level by the end of the day.

 

[gabeincal]

Model 3 will gradually drift down in retail price, but it's going to be gradual as Tesla is currently in the 'optimization' phase of the Model 3 life-cycle, not the 'giant-leap forward' stage.

That's going to be the Model 2. It'll be $25K, cast in aluminum, with an LFP heart, and sold in the millions.

Cheers!

Amen.

 

[gabeincal]

It's a wonder our trading platforms haven't the functionality to view pre-split prices parenthetically besides the current prices.

Come on, they couldn’t even do a single stock-split which is existing functionality....

 

[gabeincal]

Elon is pumping battery day so much that it feels like he's going to be laying out the death knell for ICE & Oil - so there's a fair bit baled in already.

I think it will depend on just how amazing his forecast scaling and cost reductions get to. If he said roadrunner cells had a 15% density increase, a 15% cost reduction, and moderate scaling then I think we'd dip. But if either of those numbers are 25%+ and he's using easily scalable material (e.g LFP, or zero cobalt) then I think we'll be above $500 on Friday.

I think it all matters on how the improvements are presented. I also think that Elon is learning how to present to Wall Street! I’m excited and on margin

 

[MP3Mike]

Some additional details on the Credit Suisse upgrade to a $400 price target:

As @Mo City will point out their $400 price target "doesn't actually exist", just like Ark's $7,000 price target "doesn't exist". They both do the same thing, come up with a number of scenarios, apply a probability for each, and then calculate a combined price.

 

[StealthP3D]

Am I alone in thinking we're going to tank after battery day, no matter how good it is? I then expect a rebound much higher after a week or so once the implications properly sink in with the wider investing community.

Share price moves are notoriously difficult to predict in advance, especially since we don't know what announcements battery day will bring, what the share price will be going into battery day and what the overall market will be doing. Your scenario would be made more likely if we go into battery day with a very high share price.

Or, the share price could rocket on the significance of the news only to fall after a few days as the market digests the wonderful news and realizes most of it will take some time to significantly affect the bottom line. It really depends on what gets released and what "mood" the market is in at the time. Anything is possible including going up and never looking back. So don't put too much credence in any particular scenario unless you feel like gambling.

 

[gabeincal]

Tesla has installed batteries at ~60 Electrify America charging stations, more are coming - Electrek

VW paying for powerpacks. A lot of them. What TMC knew about 3 weeks ago.

I would love to have this labeled as magic accounting like emissions credit since you know, it's not a car sale.

So would it be an interesting development if Autobidder was involved with Electrify America..?

 

[dc_h]

Eh, I don't think we'll tank, unless the news is "Meh." It may go down as people sell the news. But that would give a prime time to sell some 25th Sep calls near/in the money at the peak, then some near/in the money puts for 2 Oct at the bottom.

Regardless of Battery Day, anyone wanting to push the price down still has to worry about delivery report on October 3rd~, earnings late October and the threat of S&P inclusion happening at some random time. S&P could be next quarter or could follow a merger that eliminates something on the S&P already.
On the downside, Frank saw a black swan yesterday and macros can always sideswipe or delay a sure thing.

 

[generalenthu]

FERC passes a rule to allow Distributed Energy Resources to bid in to the power market. Long overdue, and this is great news just in time for battery day.

A short thread here.

https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1306602705125814273?s=19

Edit: Do click thru and read Neil's original thread that's quoted above! This was widely expected, but good to see it go over the finish line.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Newb question....what time is Battery day at?
I have to travel on the 22nd....so I may need to pull over at some point.

The annual meeting of shareholders starts at 1:30 PT, battery day probably 1,5 hours later (or 1 hour if there are not too many idiotic questions).

 

[cricketman]

I'm wondering if the Roadster used to have a one-pack-on-top-of-the-other design, but following some of the latest developments they have been able to revise that back to one layer, and re-engineer the floorpan of the car.

I am betting that the Roadster never had a two layer battery design, that never made sense. Elon had to say it did so to not to Osbourne all current products.

Roadster specs were built knowing they would have a much better battery in 2-3 years time, much more energy dense and faster to charge. The reason why the Roadster is delayed is because as usual, Elon set a crazy optimistic timeline for producing alien technology, but as always, he gets there in the end, and battery day will be spectacular!

 

[phantasms]

Newb question....what time is Battery day at?
I have to travel on the 22nd....so I may need to pull over at some point.

On the back of this n00b question another n00b question.

I never went through the process with my broker to get ownership proof to be able to get the code to view. I figured there would be some way to stream it. Is this foolish thinking? If yes, what exactly do I need to do again? lol

Thanks! <3

 

[jerry33]

Speculation, if there was any major update of S or X, maybe they'd clear all the old inventory. Could this account for the missing showroom stock?

End of quarter push seems much more likely to me (though I suppose it could be a combination). There are fewer S/X produced, and the profit margins are higher, so there's a much better chance of almost no inventory of S/X at the end of the quarter.

 

[joh01652]

It's frustrating because those people will spend 2k less on a car that will cost them more to own. People have a hard time looking past upfront costs.


As a customer I want those things. As an investor I want them to sell batteries and make money. As a human on the planet with kids and a general concern for others I want the transition to happen.

Fortunately Tesla is poised to do all of these things.

It’s even more frustrating when they already own a more expensive vehicle than a 3 or Y AND they complain about climate change. Even if you explain the simple benefits of TCO and ease of charging at home, they’ll come back to the whole “pedo guy” comment or some such contextless nonsense they read months ago. You’d think global climate change and air pollution would have an outsized influence on their purchasing decisions, but nope.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

On the back of this n00b question another n00b question.

I never went through the process with my broker to get ownership proof to be able to get the code to view. I figured there would be some way to stream it. Is this foolish thinking? If yes, what exactly do I need to do again? lol

Thanks! <3

I assume the stream of the event will be free for everyone to watch. A link should be available on their IR-page. That's how it was done with Autonomy Day.

The code must have been either for voting or attending in person.