Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Even so. do they really NEED a refresh as a priority? where are the lots of unsold model S and X cars that tesla cannot shift? where are the big discounts and sweetners tesla are offering to 'offload' these old fashioned out of date relics like the S & X. They dont need to refresh the best EVs on the market. If Nissan, GM and Ford did their jobs properly, maybe there would be some competition forcing them to prioritize this. But they have not. There is no competition. Is the taycan outselling the S? the e-tron? seriously?

Model S/X sales are far below where they used to be.

 

[Cherry Wine]

It would have helped if Elon would have explained how the new cells will be introduced into model Y/3 in medium term alongside existing cell supply. For instance refer to the fact that a model Y with the new cells would be the same price to the customer for a given range as it will be using the existing cell supply. EG if a customer pays for a 300 mile range model Y, it's the same price regardless of what sort of cell is in the car.

They are terrified of poaching current sales. I think that's pretty clear.

 

[Boomer19]

Unfortunately, looks like I was right. Just like Autonomy Day, Tesla has great tech and great future. Pretty far future in Mr. Market's eyes.

Stock down. So much for all the stock price Battery Day hype here.

it ain’t over til it’s over as yogi would say.
let’s see what tomorrow brings.


however,
i thought it was awesome

the fact we get a chance to organize our ducks in a row and do some position building is cherry!!!

near term gambling around these events is russian roulette...anyone watching, even casually, longer than 2 years, knows better

this is tremendous opportunity. and potentially gets better. if p&d estimates are a bit too high, coupled with a bumpy election, this could set up one of the last greatest tesla buying opportunities (barring economic disaster, war, etc, which we’d be screwed either way)

gotta embrace this if you’re locked and loaded

part of me thinks it’s not going to stay down long at all - not buying quite yet tho

 

[wipster]

Good on Elon and the entire staff at Tesla! Damn happy I got in on this years ago and the beauty is, it's only going to get better as time passes.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

As a longtime shareholder (since 2011!) I heard nothing but good news today. For the first time I have a clear picture of the endgame, of how big a company Tesla intends to become: 20M vehicles and 3TWh of batteries by 2030. They showed a roadmap of how to actually get there. Best of all, no embarrassing Elon rants about the coronavirus!

But there's nothing here for the immediate short term, so of course the stock will be down tomorrow morning.

100% agree, but I expect the climb to continue very soon in anticipation of Q3 deliveries.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm blown away by so many different things. One of the biggest is silicon anodes! And they showed the three different ways the industry is working on it ... and then said they are doing it a fourth way!

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

It would have helped if Elon would have explained how the new cells will be introduced into model Y/3 in medium term alongside existing cell supply. For instance refer to the fact that a model Y with the new cells would be the same price to the customer for a given range as it will be using the existing cell supply. EG if a customer pays for a 300 mile range model Y, it's the same price regardless of what sort of cell is in the car.

Exactly. How and when does this new technology affect the actual products? That's what investors want to know.

And that's why the SP is down markedly after hours.

 

[MP3Mike]

Seriously. Just look at total Model S/X production over the years:

2016: 76,243
2017: 101,250
2018: 99,417
2019: 66,771

That's more than 35% off the peak production. That's 35% FEWER Models S & X sold last year than 2017.

But in 2017 a lot of people were only buying them because the 3&Y didn't exist.

 

[JRD1]

Yeah its not like they introduced a new car in 2017 when those numbers started to fall

Oh wait...

 

[Boomer19]

One thing I didn't hear mentioned today (although Tesla didn't promise it) was the million mile battery. A durability issue perhaps? May be addressed at the 3rd qtr. financial meeting.

the media kept cluelessly drilling that into everyone, and you’re right, that could be a factor as to why the rubes are selling it off. thanks for that rubes!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon Musk has created negative mass.

Yes, if Model Y 75 kWh pack is 1000 lbs, then the new structural pack architecture removes ~330 lbs from the total weight of the vehicle while simultaneously stiffening/strengthening the body (w. ↓ PMI).

Unmöglich. Das Physiks!

Cheers!

 

[Knightshade]

most of us dont care about short term stock. We are mostly investors, not gamblers.

Man if only the other half of my post you didn't quote specifically had addressed how great this all looks long term.

Oh, wait it did.

And that's not Tesla's fault, that's my point.

I never suggested it was so it's not much of a point. I was simply following up a topic a number of folks posted about earlier in this very thread expecting news that didn't appear today.

Lot of that going around though.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Seriously. Just look at total Model S/X production over the years:

2016: 76,243
2017: 101,250
2018: 99,417
2019: 66,771

That's more than 35% off the peak production. That's 35% FEWER Models S & X sold last year than 2017.

EDIT: This means Tesla scales production to make demand, not that demand exceeds production capacity.

I think a lot of that reduction is the Model 3 coming out full throttle. A lot of people stretched to purchase the 100k car because they wanted a good electric car. Then the 50k model came out, so they halved their entry point and got a good car from it. And as minor as it is, there are more non-Tesla options in 2019 than in 2017, which further expanded the selection field away from the pricey vehicle.

I don't think the Plaid will be highly sold, either, as lovely as it is. $140k is more expensive than a lot of houses!

 

[Green Pete]

Tesla: shows how they are going to be the biggest company in the world

Market: down 5% before event, down 7% more after.

Why are people who don't understand this stuff investing in Tesla in the first place

 

[woodisgood]

Seems like a lot of people missed the valuation quote, which corresponded to a large drop AH. Elon said (paraphrasing), "We're not THAT massively profitable making gobs of cash, our valuation makes it seem that way but we're not..."

It reinforces the narrative that it has been very difficult to generate the profitability demonstrated thus far (and shorts will say it's accounting tricks...), and since it was said live and honestly unlike the "stock too high" tweet, there isn't another way to spin it.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Seriously. Just look at total Model S/X production over the years:

2016: 76,243
2017: 101,250
2018: 99,417
2019: 66,771

That's more than 35% off the peak production. That's 35% FEWER Models S & X sold last year than 2017.

EDIT: This means Tesla scales production to make demand, not that demand exceeds production capacity.

The drop off came when Tesla discontinued the 75 kWh version and only started producing 100 kWh versions. The total battery capacity deployed in these cars yearly - the limiting factor - went down by much less.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Why are people who don't understand this stuff investing in Tesla in the first place

Because the rest of us don't have $500 billion?

 

[AperiodicCoder]

Daily Roundup Preview: 22 September
Posts from 21 Sep 11:30 GMT to 22 Sep 23:21 GMT
Votes as of 22 Sep 23:22 GMT

Go here to see today's full Roundtable Roundup!

Top 25 Informative + Helpful

Author / Votes / Time (GMT)	Content Preview
Thekiwi 53 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 3:14	During the weekend people were speculation about an Australian listed Lithium mining company (Piedmont) - that owns a US mining operation - that was in a trading halt until Sep 22nd. People soon realised Sep 22nd is a day earlier in Australia (Sep 21st US time) so it was likely unrelated to a Tesla...
Mokuzai 43 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 23:15	From the slack message group today. B Chiesa drove by the battery day location and said there is tons of activity.
canoemore 41 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 14:11	Electrek - Tesla slashes the price of the Powerpack by 27% on Battery Day This is interesting, I think.
lascavarian 30 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 12:55	Looks like Tesla has signed an agreement for rare earth magnets with JL Mag FWIW.
RobStark 25 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 7:22	Meanwhile in Austria BEVs hit 5.4% market share while PEV hit 9.9% market share. EV Sales: Austria August 2020
Prunesquallor 24 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 6:03	https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1308284091142266881?s=21
CorneliusXX 24 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 11:44	Interesting article linked by Kelvin Yang on twitter that Mitsubishi has produced a new electrolyte for Tesla. It's a short article: HONG KONG, Sept 20, 2020 - (ACN Newswire) - - A Mitsubishi Chemical (MTLHY) technical expert revealed that the important innovations of Tesla's new battery are the po...
Cosmacelf 23 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 21:03	{no text}
BlackS 23 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 19:53	FYI
elasalle 22 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 12:46	Tesla initiates talks to set up research centre in Bengaluru – The Free Press Newspaper
StealthP3D 21 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 16:19	The reasoning behind the complete re-design is not the energy density or efficiency differences of the new cells - it is their form factor. A taller cell won't fit in the old chassis. The casting machines in question are high-pressure casting machines. Cast aluminum (without high pressure) is rela...
MarcoRP 20 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 22:54	This is an actual sign. 200 V3 Superchargers coming to Metro LA in 2021 Superchargers in Southern California (location speculation)
Curt Renz 20 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 20:27	Bloomberg - 3 hours ago: Rivian Faces Ban From Michigan Car Dealers in Direct-Sales Fight Excerpt: Michigan auto dealers are trying to block startup electric carmakers including Rivian Automotive Inc. and Lucid Motors Inc. from following in Tesla Inc.’s footsteps by selling vehicles directly to co...
jbcarioca 19 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 16:27	Airbus has already had two electric planes operating for a while and have been actively searching for plausible alternatives. Hydrogen is another one. Their constant R&D does sometimes produce major advances, like the first FBW airliner, the A320. Sometimes it does not. They are spending much more o...
lascavarian 18 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 14:36	OMG, CNBC had Bob Nardelli (sp?) an ex auto exec speaking on battery day. Spoke glowingly of Elon but proceeded to spread false and discouraging info. So sad that Elon who is a genius, could only get EVs to 1 or 2 percent of vehicles after working so hard since 2008. Repeatedly referred to the chal...
Prunesquallor 18 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 16:22	Hadn't heard about PowerPacks in Costa Rica: CleanSpark Commissions Software on New Microgrid Featuring Tesla Batteries "CleanSpark, Inc. (Nasdaq: CLSK), "the Company", a diversified software and services company announced the commissioning of its software on a new solar plus storage microgrid pro...
willow_hiller 17 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 14:58	Tesla planning Upgrades changes for battery day? Yesterday, I had heated rear seats, EAP, and FSD available for upgrades. This morning, they've all gone missing. Reddit users are reporting the same: Something’s coming... Cannot upgrade MY as it says I have all upgrades. : teslamotors
Lycanthrope 17 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 20:07	Looks like Tesla have done a makeover on their Investor Relations pages: Investor Relations | Tesla Investor Relations Still had the old look earlier today.
StealthP3D 16 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 4:29	I agree with that his tweet was (in part) a bear trap but Elon likes to take action when he feels he can kill two birds with one stone so it was probably not the only reason he took action today (or even the main reason). To elaborate, while Elon doesn't give a rat's ass about day to day share pri...
Reductionist 15 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 21:31	Notes from the annual shareholder meeting (everything I thought was significant in one post, to avoid clutter) - Shanghai over 1M annual production over time - "I think the future looks very promising from an annual profitability standpoint" - Tightening supply chain major factor in achieving consi...
Ameliorate 14 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 20:35	I'm not a charts guy but the answer to that seems to be "highly influential" if you've been watching Tesla for the past year. We very frequently bounce off technical indicators down to the dollar. I sure up leveraged a week+ ago on the 50DMA. PS we're about to golden cross on the MACD on battery day...
Artful Dodger 13 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 16:04	In case anyone wonders why $423.24 is so popular in today's SP, it's the Mid-BB: Channelling @SpaceCash I would say "pinned AF". Cheers!
jbcarioca 13 | Link ➤ 21 Sep 13:27	Possibly not: BMW is biggest U.S. automotive exporter by value for fifth year As virus raged, demand for U.S. vehicle exports surged Almost all BMW SUV are made in USA. All three Alabama OEM's export from USA. Of course the traditional 'big three' are not among the major exporters. Prior to Model 3...
Artful Dodger 12 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 5:06	Jul 15: Jul 25:
Artful Dodger 11 | Link ➤ 22 Sep 0:08	After-action Report: Mon, Sep 21, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading) Headline: "TSLA Bears Hunt the Stops" Traded: $48,235,257,786.41 ($48.26B) Volume: 109,711,720 VWAP: $411.16 Close $449.39 / VWAP: 102.14% (TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP) Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $418.746B / $183.731B = 227.91% TSLA 1-m...

 

[smorgasbord]

But in 2017 a lot of people were only buying them because the 3&Y didn't exist.

Yeah its not like they introduced a new car in 2017 when those numbers started to fall

Oh wait...

Whatever the reasons, Tesla is NOT demand constrained on Models S&X, not even close.

A Model S/X refresh will help demand for those high margin vehicles. I would have bought an interior refreshed Model X. Now it looks like a Model Y for us.

YARD.

 

[Mich]

Tesla: shows how they are going to be the biggest company in the world

Market: down 5% before event, down 7% more after.

Why are people who don't understand this stuff investing in Tesla in the first place

Even if every investor does understand it, there are still too many short term traders (me included). Every short term trader wants to close their position afeter the event. Some in hurry, some have time. Preffered with profit, but if not possible also on a loss.

The key is: no matter what: every short term trade will be close some time after the event.