Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

What if the $25,000 Tesla is really the Model 3 (after battery and stamping cost savings). And maybe even why it was not named, only a price? Guessing Germany or China builds the smaller Model 2 that sells for even less - $19K even.

Analysts asking "Where's the payoff if prices keep dropping?" So I'm thinking $$$ don't come from the vehicles directly, but in the Software - Entertainment, FSD, Productivity Tools, Dojo Learning, Dog Finding FSD App, Baby Safety Monitor, and who knows what else in Energy.

 

[Mokuzai]

Holy heck there are 1k+ unread posts. Battery day was amazing...market so far clueless as always. Have a lot of catching up to do tomorrow.

 

[FrankSG]

What if the $25,000 Tesla is really the Model 3 (after battery and stamping cost savings). And maybe even why it was not named, only a price? Guessing Germany or China builds the smaller Model 2 that sells for even less - $19K even.

Analysts asking "Where's the payoff if prices keep dropping?" So I'm thinking $$$ don't come from the vehicles directly, but in the Software - Entertainment, FSD, Productivity Tools, Dojo Learning, Dog Finding FSD App, Baby Safety Monitor, and who knows what else in Energy.

The base M3 is currently selling for $38k. Tesla's cost on this is probably a little over 30k.

For Tesla to be able to profitably sell this for $25k, they'd have to cut off about a third of the overall cost of the vehicle. I don't think battery advancements alone will be able to do that.

 

[S3XY]

Twitter

Some wise words I think. Enjoy and thanks @mickificki

Gotta love Chamath playing the HODL card.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The base M3 is currently selling for $38k. Tesla's cost on this is probably a little over 30k.

For Tesla to be able to profitably sell this for $25k, they'd have to cut off about a third of the overall cost of the vehicle. I don't think battery advancements alone will be able to do that.

$35K for a SR, unless they eliminated that in the past few months? You had to talk to a salesperson to get that price.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The base M3 is currently selling for $38k. Tesla's cost on this is probably a little over 30k.

For Tesla to be able to profitably sell this for $25k, they'd have to cut off about a third of the overall cost of the vehicle. I don't think battery advancements alone will be able to do that.

I also mentioned stamping cost savings - impressive video of that today too. Maybe $25K is a stretch, no Elon doesn't do that.

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

The question I have is: are cheaper batteries necessary at all if FSD is solved?

 

[MC3OZ]

The structural pack slides seems to be using Model Y as illustrations, so that means the plan for new cells are not just for CyberTruck and Semi.

This makes me think the reason why Elon jumps in to say the dry tech is not “mass production” ready for a year, is to avoid Osborne Model Y, it doesn’t necessarily mean there is any uncertainty in getting it polished and ready when time comes.

So the 1-year timeline give people the impression that it would come to Model Y only after the Giga Berlin version, no reason to wait now.
So, I am expecting sometime from now till next September they would announce the new cell line is producing at full capacity over night, no real ramping, rather a step change.

I mean you either get the yield high enough or still too low, no need to produce more than test batches before that, and no reason to produce at lower throughput after, right?

Ok now I am spreading a theory that could Osborne Model Y, I will show myself out.

My thoughts are similar, but a Model Y with the new pack will look the same.
Tesla can achieve a very similar cost, performance and range, perhaps only weighing the cars will reveal the difference.

Some range and performance may initially be software locked.

In any case, the only Model Ys certain to have the new cells are those made in Berlin. They are only available for purchase in Europe.

There is also a chance LFP packs may allow a 35K on menu SR Model 3.

Osborning can't happen as for all sorts of reasons large immediate price drops and performance improvements are unlikely.

There is a open question about what vechicles Kato Rd cells are initially going into. We will find out in due course, but Model S/X are still more likely than Model Y.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I just caught on that the Plaid S in the video was using the new batteries.
Ya, this will take some time to sink in for sure.

 

[dw4ngg]

I just caught on that the Plaid S in the video was using the new batteries.
Ya, this will take some time to sink in for sure.

Wait, it is??! That’s huge though and negates comments by Musk that it’s not “final”. Is he really looking after Osborne effect here or am I not reconciling something correctly?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I’m seeing some angst here over Tesla stock price. Elon should have done this or that. Reporters are trashing Tesla.

Do you guys realize Tesla market cap is around $400B? Bigger than the next three auto companies combined?

Seems to me that the stock market does actually like Tesla or else its market cap would be about 1/4 of what it is today.

 

[Green Pete]

I’m seeing some angst here over Tesla stock price. Elon should have done this or that. Reporters are trashing Tesla.

Do you guys realize Tesla market cap is around $400B? Bigger than the next three auto companies combined?

Seems to me that the stock market does actually like Tesla or else its market cap would be about 1/4 of what it is today.

Stop comparing it to auto companies. It's not valued like one because it does things that no other auto company in the world does. It's more of an engineering firm that happens to make cars.

 

[Drumheller]

Wait, it is??! That’s huge though and negates comments by Musk that it’s not “final”. Is he really looking after Osborne effect here or am I not reconciling something correctly?

I think many people misunderstood. Tesla is making the new cells now, at a slow rate. They didn't say what the rate is, only that they are working on ramping now.

They don't have all of the improvements in place, yet. For instance, I have the impression that the maxwell dry process is not in place, yet.

So they are making those cells now, but they haven't achieved all of the pieces yet that will lead to ramping production and lowering costs to their targets.

I think many people confused pieces of the presentation. Maybe I did, too. If so, I'm sure I will receive corrections.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wait, it is??! That’s huge though and negates comments by Musk that it’s not “final”. Is he really looking after Osborne effect here or am I not reconciling something correctly?

Got the info from these battery gurus asking the same question and said it was in the presentation. https://twitter.com/YingShirleyMen1/status/1308571291482427393

I have not verified it, but ya I'm with you on game changer. Whatever the yield is, they have to be putting them into something already... now. Maybe not taking advantage of structural part, but hey start saving money when you can right?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Stop comparing it to auto companies. It's not valued like one because it does things that no other auto company in the world does. It's more of an engineering firm that happens to make cars.

Seriously. Regardless of whether you think Tesla has a fair value from Wall St or not, Tesla is not traditional auto....never has and never will be
So there's zero reason to compare Tesla's market cap to them. Tesla's market cap could be bigger than all auto combined by a factor of 2 and it's still not a valid comparison

 

[Hammerhead786]

Battery day shows why Tesla is the leader of the pack (pun intended). Why would they have even talked about the DBE process if they weren't confident of resolving any issues? Working in IT, I've learned to always overstate timelines, so when a user's issue has been fixed in less time, their expectations have been exceeded.

I'm guessing Tesla are sandbagging their timelines to both cover themselves in the event of unforeseen issues and to prevent the Osborne effect. I would not be surprised to see them beat their timelines. Legacy auto has just been dealt the final blow.

Live long and HODL!

 

[Mo City]

The question I have is: are cheaper batteries necessary at all if FSD is solved?

If your only concern is the value of TSLA, it's debatable.

If the primary goal remains to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, of course cheaper batteries are necessary.

When ICE vehicles and the fossil fuel industry are as close to extinction as possible, the mission will be accomplished.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What if price of gas eventually drops to $1/gallon? Maybe it would have no effect on Tesla sales, IDK.

 

[Dave EV]

Almost assured the reasons we're going to have to wait a year is, single piece casting, integral structural pack design and brand new body and interior.

Eh? Elon said single piece castings for the rear of the car are coming out now. The question is, which car are they going into?

The question I have is: are cheaper batteries necessary at all if FSD is solved?

If your goal is to get the world off fossil fuels as quickly as possible, then yes. The cheaper the better.

Wait, it is??! That’s huge though and negates comments by Musk that it’s not “final”. Is he really looking after Osborne effect here or am I not reconciling something correctly?

It's just a prototype with prototype parts. Next year, production parts in a production car will be available. And it's a whole more money than a current Model S. Not much money to be lost here. People who want a S Plaid already probably have a S Performance.

I think many people misunderstood. Tesla is making the new cells now, at a slow rate. They didn't say what the rate is, only that they are working on ramping now.

They don't have all of the improvements in place, yet. For instance, I have the impression that the maxwell dry process is not in place, yet.

I understood that DBE (dry battery electrode) is in place, but the consistency and speed is not yet high enough for high speed mass production. By the end of next year, it will be.

Now it was clear that things like structural battery pack are not in place, as that also requires the entire car to use front/rear single piece castings.

The big question I have there is can you still replace the battery pack if needed?

Some of the comments of the structural battery pack brought me back to the Model S, where it's battery pack is also a stressed member. Though in that case, it's just the battery case that's a stressed member, and not the battery cells themselves. Making the cells stressed members will take the pack's rigidity to a whole other level while significantly reducing weight in other areas of the car.

Hmm - maybe this is why they're using the Model S as the Plaid drivetrain prototype? Does this also mean the Model S will get front/rear single piece castings?

 

[Green Pete]

The whole presentation was focused on how much Tesla can reduce battery prices as a percentage. I have my own assumptions as to what a Tesla battery costs but I'm sure they are inaccurate. What price are we all thinking they are aiming to hit with this?

I assumed they were around $120 at the pack level for what it's worth. Meaning they got it down to $52 bucks a kw/h

I want to reiterate. I don't have a clue on this. Was just going off numbers I've had on my head a long time