bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
*cough* new headquarters *cough*
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
*cough* new headquarters *cough*
After hours question for the group: I remember a time when a bunch of TMC members joined Twitter to provide factual info against $TSLAQ nonsense. Did we ever compile a list of our Twitter handles? If so can someone please point me to it? I recently started trying to get involved in some $TSLA & investing discussions but I’m largely shouting into the abyss and would love to add you guys. (I’m @stopbuyingvwls for what it’s worth).
I listen to all these guys. I worry a bit about too much group think/confirmation bias going on.
yes, but the size of the property and the needs they will have, labor, it has to make sense to build housing and have a system where they would rent or rent to own.
The real estate in Austin is already too hot and Elon hates commuting himself.
The new clearing on the other side of the hwy is adjacent to residential areas.
I'm increasingly thinking about this. How I perceive Teslas edge, and how I perceive this forums to also see it, sometimes feels very too good to be true. But the stuff tslaq tends to say is always completely without merit. I'd really like someone who can actually make a strong argument against Teslas dominance to get a chance to speak. It's unsettling how unhinged teslaq is.
The one thing that my confidence wavers on is FSD. I'm less impressed with the first beta release than I was hoping. But I'm also pretty impressed with the improvement since then. So who knows.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
There will not be on-site housing, at least not that my contact in Tesla has made me aware of.
This person has been house hunting in Austin.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
QUOTE
But Biden is also no stranger to NASA. During the Obama administration, Biden reportedly played a large role in NASA’s operations, even helping coordinate the space agency’s ongoing partnership with SpaceX.
Biden names NASA transition team
But Biden is also no stranger to NASA. During the Obama administration, Biden reportedly played a large role in NASA’s operations, even helping coordinate the space agency’s ongoing partnership with SpaceX.
Biden names NASA transition team
IMO the west area close to the existing housing estate might be offices...
They probably don't want to build manufacturing too close to existing houses and too far form the main factory.
The office space could contain a few apartments as temporary accommodation for new employees moving into the area.
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ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
If Tesla didn't build any housing around GF3 they are not about to in Austin.
Edit: I meant Nevada, but it actually applies for any of them.
Edit: I meant Nevada, but it actually applies for any of them.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Doubtful Chinese government would allow a foreign company to build housing.
Pam Melroy is an absolute stand-out. I hope she’s Administrator.
Buddyroe
Active Member
Mercedes owned a significant portion of Tesla shares at one point and sold around 2015 I believe. I read somewhere that had they held those shares until Tesla reached $500 ($2500), they would've made more money on Tesla stock than they did manufacturing cars. Not sure if it's true or not. Either way, selling their shares was an incredibly bad decision.
We can't deduce too much from the fact that Tesla has not started operating a driverless system, or applied for regulatory approval where they need it.
The system needs to be "ready" from the videos we can see good progress, but it isn't yet "ready". It is wise to wait until the software is "ready", and in any case there are other ducks to line up.
IMO as Tesla will not be cell constrained they will keep selling private cars when Robo-taxis are ready. My reasoning is they can easily spin up 2-3 factories to make Model 2.
Say a Model 2 Robo-taxi can make 30K per year and a Model S Robo-taxi running a premium service can make 35K per year. Most of the time most customers will not pay more for the premium service. So most Rob-taxi's will be Model 2 and Model 3.
I've been wondering for sometime if they will make Model 3 at Austin and FSD progress is a good reason to do that.
We also need to keep in mind the Robo-taxi roll out will be exponential, but will not be a big bang. Very few places will allow the service without regulatory approval and paperwork. Tesla will want to prove and refine the service in a handful of locations before wider rollout.
But a key consideration is Tesla has a rough idea of the timeline, that means they know when extra vehicle production will be needed and will want that production to be mostly Model 2 and Model 3.
Doing the maths of a 25K Model 2 let's assume it costs Tesla 18K to make it, and it earns 30K per year.
Sale Year 1 - 7K margin, Robo-taxi Year 1 - 12K margin, Robo-taxi year 2 - 30K Margin.
So for Model 2 particularly in the US, Robo-taxi use is a higher priority than sales and planning capacity in advance pays off.
Model 3 is a good proxy while waiting for Model 2, the maths will be similar..
So I think when system is "ready", production volumes will be ready, and there is no point in rushing the start up, wait until all the ducks are lined up.
I look at Tesla’s FSD approach sort of like a baby learning to crawl, then walk etc. Neural nets training themselves through experience. The rate of learning and improving is not linear and it’s hard to predict what the ultimate capability will be from witnessing the first awkward steps.
I’m not certain that Tesla will achieve level 5 autonomy “soon” but I don’t see anyone solving it before them.
Never. Employees will want to choose their own neighborhoods, school districts, etc. They’ll commute.
Also, property that close to the airport may not be desirable.
Fun video. My only complaint is the one shot they have of a car display charging it says “30 minutes remaining”. Most of my supercharging is only 15 minutes and I wish they would have shown a lower time remaining.
If Tesla isn’t building housing in the Bay Area why would they be concerned about Austin housing prices? That land around GigaTexas may be needed in the future for expansion
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