Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[engle]

Let's not discount the influence of Robinhood investors on price moves. I found a Robinhood $TSLA whale on a private FB $TSLA investor forum asking:

Someone challenged him to prove it so he did:

I hope he isn't hacked or some criminal doesn't kidnap one of his kids for ransom!

Most everyone cheered him on and many boasted of their recent large buys. I just told him this:

"
Russell Engle
If $TSLA continues to execute I personally believe it will be the most valuable company in the USA by 2030. If I'm right, we will have at least 5x more capital gains on paper from today - NOT investment advice! (This is assuming the macro whale which is the USA doesn't drown in its own debt or a worse black swan event like massive civil unrest enabled by the 2nd Amendment driven by extreme economic disparity leads to the end of our democracy as we know it.) My 2021 or 2022 Tri-motor Cybertruck will come in handy if the latter comes to pass.

"

(Didn't want to make him jealous and fearful by sharing my average cost basis.)

PS. "whale" refers to a Vegas gambler or is very rich and loves to gamble and loses big bucks to the house. They get free penthouse suites closest to the elevator to minimize their time away from the VIP Room.

O/T PPS. Taiwan visas secured. Target USA escape date either 11/29-30 or 12/20-21 - hopefully the earlier since I cannot wait to eat inside a good Chinese restaurant again!

 

[The Accountant]

I couldn't find how they get to their 2021 EPS estimate of $14.07, which I assume to be non-GAAP, but I will gladly take the under on this.

Even with 1.25M deliveries, Sales Gross Margin excl. Credits growing to 25.1%, and Operating Margin growing to 18.2%, I only get a 2021 non-GAAP EPS of $9.55.

I really don't see how $14.07 could happen. What does @The Accountant think?

I too don't see how Tesla can achieve $14 EPS in 2021. At the moment, my most optimistic scenario is about $8 EPS.

 

[engle]

I too don't see how Tesla can achieve $14 EPS in 2021. At the moment, my most optimistic scenario is about $8 EPS.

I'd be thrilled with $8 EPS in 2021 if that means we might end 2021 post-Covid with $800/share at an even P/E ratio of 100 - or is my math defective? ("Our" P/E now is 787.30.)

PS. As long as 2021 EPS is >= $6 and PE Ratio >= 100, my FW (First Wife lol) says I can buy a Roadster II. I want that vehicle so badly and have (mostly ) been a good boy to generate good karma so I think Elon, his teams, and the $TSLA market gods will smile upon all of us next year. I think starting no later than Q3 2021 is going to be an awesome rebound "covid-19 relief that life is almost back to normal" year here in USA and the rest of the first world for most survivors.

 

[Green Pete]

I am rubbing my hands exactly for this reasons. There is a huge understanding arbitrage existing for all of us to benefit from.
Even the biggest Tesla bulls don't have faith that Tesla would be solving FSD problem. rather quickly.

To be honest I am having a hard time gauging how I feel about Tesla's FSD progress right now. Your response seems to suggest you think its about to be a breakthrough. My sense is its a few years away. But I honestly have very little basis for that judgement. It works well, and its impressive. But I wouldn't use it as it is because I know I would get complacent and have an accident. Do you have some basis for believing we are around the corner from a general release where 90% of drivers who are lazy and easily become complacent wouldn't be risky to give this to?

Edit: If it DOES get to the point where I can ride around in it and it will be able to stop and alert me when it needs help I will be more than willing to cruise around in a "learning" mode a few hours a day while it just looks for more edge cases. Tesla is certainly the only company that has that card up it's sleeve. Obsessively devoted customers who want to help any way they can, for free

 

[Thekiwi]

Elon (probably) has COVID

 

[StapleGun]

View attachment 607866

My understanding is quite limited, but false positives should be much more rare than false negatives for these tests. If that's the case then it's very likely Elon has Covid.

 

[Cattledog]

yes, but the size of the property and the needs they will have, labor, it has to make sense to build housing and have a system where they would rent or rent to own.

The real estate in Austin is already too hot and Elon hates commuting himself.

The new clearing on the other side of the hwy is adjacent to residential areas.

Yup, part of the deal to get incentives from Austin. Factory workers there won't make a ton, under $60K, so it was agreed to as part of the deal.

 

[Cherry Wine]

My understanding is quite limited, but false positives should be much more rare than false negatives for these tests. If that's the case then it's very likely Elon has Covid.

Will be interesting to see how the stock reacts. Key man risk and all. Potential buying opportunity...

 

[Mo City]

My understanding is quite limited, but false positives should be much more rare than false negatives for these tests. If that's the case then it's very likely Elon has Covid.

Tomorrow could be the mother of all (recent) buying opportunities.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1327127056119902210

Symptoms of a typical cold. Nothing unusual so far.

If it’s happening to me, it’s happening to others. I’m getting PCR tests from separate labs. Results will take about 24 hours.

 

[Bet TSLA]

View attachment 607866

Elon (probably) has COVID

Looks like the web page is BD Veritor™ Plus System for rapid COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) testing.

For details of result interpretation go to the How To Use tab and scroll down to INTERPRETING TEST RESULTS.

Says Specificity: 99.5%; Sensitivity: 84%.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/mycroft16/status/1327127183312220160

The rapid antigen gives about 50% false positives. Which agrees with his results perfectly. The PCR test is far more accurate and is rhe one driving the spike data

No idea if this twitter poster knows what they are talking about, but the PCR tests should clear things up.

 

[Bet TSLA]

https://twitter.com/mycroft16/status/1327127183312220160



No idea if this twitter poster knows what they are talking about, but the PCR tests should clear things up.

Nope. The false positive rate is dependent on the initial likelihood of the person being tested having the disease. Check out the web page.

 

[Jeff N]

Nope. The false positive rate is dependent on the initial likelihood of the person being tested having the disease. Check out the web page.

Elon seems to be newly infected and just showing mild symptoms so his viral load is probably still increasing and just at the edge of the rapid test’s sensitivity threshold.

 

[Robocop]

How much do we expect the stock to move tomorrow? 5%? I know it seems silly but often the market overreacts, and volume has been so low recently. My long term shares are fine, but I had a shorter term account that I was just about to withdraw from, looks like that could be an issue.

 

[Jeff N]

Will be interesting to see how the stock reacts. Key man risk and all. Potential buying opportunity...

Elon is only 49 and not particularly overweight. Plus he’s a billionaire with access to the best therapies and medical advice. He’s very likely (99%) to be just fine after a week of mild or moderate symptoms.

 

[Mike Smith]

How much do we expect the stock to move tomorrow? 5%? I know it seems silly but often the market overreacts, and volume has been so low recently. My long term shares are fine, but I had a shorter term account that I was just about to withdraw from, looks like that could be an issue.

Logically, he has less than 1% chance of dying so even if the company is worthless without him it should drop less than 1%. So yes, maybe 5%.

 

[Robocop]

Logically, he has less than 1% chance of dying, so even if the company is worthless without him it should drop less than 1%. So yes, maybe 5%.

That was kinda my logic, "This shouldn't matter... better expect a knife drop."

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon seems to be newly infected and just showing mild symptoms so his viral load is probably still increasing and just at the edge of the rapid test’s sensitivity threshold.

Yes, likely enough. That effectively decreases the sensitivity of the test, maybe to 60% (just guessing). That increases the chance that a positive test means he's actually infected.

It looks to me like if the prior likelihood if Elon being infected was anything above 2%, then two out of four positives means he's very, very likely infected. Even if the prior was 1% it's very likely.

He should assume he's infected at this point.

 

[kanweg]

I listen to all these guys. I worry a bit about too much group think/confirmation bias going on.

Well, if I hear Rob, Jordan or David speak, they all seem very well grounded. They back what they say up with facts, reason even their disclaimers. And then, when they make predictions, they turn out to be close to correct. For example, compare Rob’s financial estimates with those of the (professional ha!) analysts and with the actual results. He is close. (Same goes for the accountant on this forum. Hat off sir). Look at the predictions on batteries Jordan Giesige makes on batteries after a lengthy study of the source material (patent application, article etc. ). My own background is closer to this field than his, and he is so much more knowledgeable. And when he predicts something, he is sometimes off, but then it is usually that he underestimated what Tesla actually came up with.

So, no I don’t think I’m in an echo chamber. ANd if guys like these are enthousiasts, so what. There is reason for that.

The track record of Gali or SMR is not as good, I think. But do they have the general direction wrong, I don’t think so.