Assuming legacy automakers either can’t ramp EV production by 2030, or if some of the legacy automakers no longer exist by that time then who will fill the EV production gap?
Perhaps some of the newcomers like Nio, Lucid, or Rivian. But why not Tesla?
Is the 20M production number target set in stone? I realize Tesla has an existing goal and strategy, but those can be adjusted as needed to address future opportunities and challenges.
Who better to ramp production beyond 20M than Tesla?
I mean- either you believe Elon or you don't.
He told us on BD the reason they're dumping all these resources into batteries and doing tons of stuff nobody else is doing is, they hope, if they perfectly execute everything on multiple fronts, to reach 20 million a year production on or before 2030.
That everyone else was so far behind, and so slow to do anything to ramp battery production, that this was the only path to scaling production with any speed at all.
Even then he said it'd require "consistently excellent execution" by Tesla to get to that 20 million goal on or before 2030. I expect they can certainly do that- but seems unlikely they'd somehow magically get WAY past that goal vastly sooner than even Elon says they can.
Doubtless if everyone else is still dragging along making crap they'll
continue trying to ramp well beyond that in future years... but if you believe Elon they're going to
have to have other car makers step up quite a lot for those imagining 50% EVs among new car sales in 10 years.
And mostly those guys besides not being ready on the car front, aren't
remotely ready or even seriously working toward being ready, on the
battery front.
Ford is still debating if having ANY battery production at all makes sense for them.
GM is working on ONE plant that in another year or two might produce 15-20%
less cells than GF-Nevada will produce
this year.
Toyota is hoping, in another 2 years, to open a plant to make batteries for
hybrids- not even full EVs.
Hyundai is recently in "talks" about the idea of building
A battery factory eventually...maybe...
VW, the guys who insist they are taking EVs VERY SERIOUSLY FOR REAL are building
A battery plant in Germany... they expect it will open late 2023 to early 2024 with an initial production less than half what GF-N does in 2020, and they hope to expand that to about 2/3rds what GF-N did in 2020.
As I say this bumbling incompetence on the part of legacy is
excellent for Tesla investors... but not so great for folks who keep thinking other companies are just gonna start churning out millions of EVs anytime soon.