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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Looking at the second most valuable car mfg I think they might be overvalued...
There's a story from Teknikens Værld an influental swedish car magazine out today. (Teknikens Värld - Wikipedia)
The new Toyota RAV4 PHEV failed the "moose-test" at just 68km/h, while barely passing grade is set at 72km/h. (The moose test is you agressively avoid an object in the road and then try to get back into your lane, simulating what happens if a moose jumps out of the forest onto the road). The RAV4's ESP didn't kick in and the car went into a full slide. Now this can happen to cars so in itself this is not major. But the interesting part is that happened to the last Hybrid RAV4 as well, and then Toyota fixed it. Now a few years later their newest model shows the same problem and they promise to fix it in January with a software update as long as you bring the car in.
Mind you this is not a recall and Toyota PR persons assure us that the car is built to the highest safety standards.
So the worlds nr 2 car producer again sends out a car with a safety defect, and can't fix it now but in a month and you still have to bring your car in for updates. Yeah that's really state of the art.
And people wonder about Tesla's valuation...

This reminds me when I lived in Sweden I would always read stories about moose eating too many fermented fruit, getting drunk, and running into cars on the road.

Those were the idyllic days before Sweden became a Covidfactory.
 
There is an alternate explanation (which gets little to no attention in this Forum): today is the Tuesday before the 2nd Friday of the S&P rebalancing month (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec).

Thus, today's Close marks the entry into the "freeze" period where all components of the S&P 500 have their weights fixed (even though trading in the underlying continues, S&P DJI defines the weights as of the Close today).

These weights will be announced on Friday (2nd Fri, as usual) with the release of the pro-forma files. The 'freeze' period ends on the 3rd Fri, and the rebalance date is the following Monday (Dec 21st this year), also the day of the addition of TSLA to the index.

Posted extensive links to S&P DJI source pdf's yesterday. Browse my comment history to see them.

Cheers!

I reread, and now I'm more confused than ever.
IWF and shares are frozen, and index shares are reported, but it seems the pro-forma weights are not accurate since they depend on share price.

From Equity Indices Policies & Practices Methodology
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/d...logy-sp-equity-indices-policies-practices.pdf
Pro-forma Files In addition to the corporate events file (.SDE), S&P DJI provides constituent pro-forma files for many indices at the time of rebalancing. The pro-forma file is typically provided daily in advance of the rebalancing date and contains all constituents and their corresponding weights and index shares effective for the upcoming rebalancing. Since index shares are assigned based on prices prior to the rebalancing, the actual weight of each stock at the rebalancing will differ from these weights due to market movements.
 
Wow, I almost can't believe it. I think it was in 2015 that I first mentally accepted that there was a small likelihood (personal guess: 10%) that Tesla could, in a decade or a bit longer, be one of the biggest companies in the world by market cap. And here we are, just five short years later, at #7 in the S&P500. I keep saying this, but once again congratulations to everyone who has been stubborn enough to hang on in the face of the horde of naysayers all these years. Now I'm wondering how far ahead of the curve Tesla is valued, and when it is likely that we would see the transition in e.g. PE ratios compared to the other tech behemoths in this league.

ZsoZso and all others who have mixed thoughts over the ridiculous power of owning a successful growth company in a capitalist economy -- just try to roll with it :D I don't want to sound like Karl Marx in here, but almost everyone in our society is raised to develop skills and personal traits that are useful and in-demand, but very rarely earn a fortune in just a few years. Owning a stake in a company that "unexpectedly" grows 50% per year without a reasonable upper bound is a perfect example that taking successful risks as an owner is rewarded more than working for a stable salary. Of course, one doesn't preclude the other, and successful investment decisions would almost always require many other reflected and wise long-term career and lifestyle decisions. I think that's true for most of us.

You have to be careful what in circles you share this kind of view. It's not really politics to believe that allowing entrepeneurs and investors to keep the fruits of their labor and risk is a critical ingredient to a wealthy society, but it's a subject that very quickly gets politicized. What I just said is heresy in many circles of Norway, for instance. The outcome we've seen since Tesla's IPO would follow naturally from this, and I'm very thankful that normal folks have actually had the opportunity to take part in it. The Sarbanes-Oxley rules have greatly limited the opportunity for regular folks to invest in young growth companies, so this is not something to take for granted. Stratification of investment opportunities is very much a thing these days, and it's not a good development.

If someone feels mixed about things, I think the best way to cope is to just accept that there are things we were told growing up, deeply-held beliefs for most, that aren't true. Might be easier for me to say, as I'm only at a halfway point in my career and not looking back at multiple decades of hard work and savings that have suddenly been eclipsed by a series of investment decisions.

But meh. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that we've succeeded purely through luck, and that there was less than 1% chance of this outcome occurring. Let's not sweat it. If someone should ask, blame luck.
 
Which are you?

I had done enough wet, cold, dangerous, dirty, and hard work by age 37 to last a lifetime. I was never ashamed of it but I realized I couldn't do it forever and it was no way to get ahead in the world. So when I started making real money through investing it felt really good, like I was finally master of my own destiny.

Every once in a while I reflect on all the shares I bought for a song and sold for a king's ransom. I wonder who sold them to me at such a low price. I might feel a tinge of sadness for that person. But then I realize they were probably a real jerk anyway. Right? ;)
 
How are shares from the cap raised issued to buyers as it’s at market price?

Does Tesla have an Ameritrade account that Zach just trades off of that starts with 11 million shares in it?

Does he look at RSI and sells off a hundred thousand shares a pop when too heated?

I imagine he could also buy the dip and arbitrage off those shares?

Heck just sell 110,000 OTM calls on those new shares and collect some sweet premium. Turn 5 billion into 6?
 
How are shares from the cap raised issued to buyers as it’s at market price?
Same as any new issue, the partner banks get a balance of new shares they can then sell. Tesla sets the number and minimum price.

Heck just sell 110,000 OTM calls on those new shares and collect some sweet premium. Turn 5 billion into 6?

Speaking of, whatever happened to Tesla's hedge calls?
 
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