Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kcveins]

old.nasdaq says after hour high is 621. Single late registered trade, or climb after hours?

Probably is a late registered trade...
Schwab has the after hour price down 7 at 597..

 

[Paracelsus]

Possible range violation by private plane flying too close to launch site

Might have been a Jeff Bezos plane trying to derail Elon's success:

 

[Bet TSLA]

Thanks.

Last time I checked, dozens of tech stocks didn’t have a secondary announced yesterday. Nor are they about to be included in the S & P.

Perhaps a bit of relaxation is in order?

And yet, somehow, their stock prices behaved quite similarly to TSLA. So really, what is in order would be less hyperventilating about all these things that people imagine are causing TSLA's movements today. No explanation beyond it's just the same as all those other companies is needed.

How about that sort of relaxation? Take a look at Cloudflare (NET) if you want a comparison.

 

[MXWing]

Might have been a Jeff Bezos plane trying to derail Elon's success:
View attachment 616049

US Space Force could do Musk a favor by knocking it down with orbital lasers.

I seem to remember in my head that successful SpaceX missions don't help TSLA but failed ones hurt.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Picked up 2 more in Munich (actually Pilsting,130 km east). Truckloads coming, spotted alone 3 of them on the way to Pilsting from Nuremburg. 8 cars per truck.

Delivery center was fairly full of cars, people arriving every few minutes to pick up cars. Plenty cars on the lot (too many to count, I guess 3 digits).

My fourth car for this quarter will be ready on Dec 28.

So business is pretty good here. My investment thesis in cars is as follows:

Every employee in my company can have Tesla. I pay €42,000. The governments reimburses 6,000, so cost to me is 36,000.

The employee gets to drive the car. For this privilege the tax charges him taxes on 1/4 of 1% = €105 per month.
Depending on his tax rate this is costing him/her 20-50 € per month to drive a Tesla!
This is how we attract good employees, especially younger ones really like that - boys and gals alike. The girls tell me it is a guy magnet.

After six to twelve months we replace the cars with the newest and greatest. If we are lucky, we do not lose anything on the car (sell it for 36,000) - or very little. We will see how that goes.

win - for us
win - for the employees
win - for Tesla
win - for the environment

We charge the cars at our company from our 30 kW solar array combined with 3 power walls (one out of the prior referral program).

Maybe some other German business owners want to copy our model.

Tesla as a company car is now a very interesting option in Germany.

 

[AudubonB]

I just have to share a story of my friend, named Phil. He doesn't make a lot of money as a musician, but back in 2012 I talked him into buying some TSLA. He's been calling me for the last month, telling me about how happy he is that he bought 510 shares in 2012 now worth over $300k. Well, my friend Phil calls me this morning even happier! He had completely forgotten about another 570 shares he has in a Roth Ira fund! Happy day for Phil.

I am pleased with many thousands of shares that purchased back in 2012 and 2013, though these shares really do not change my already comfortable lifestyle. They are just numbers in my account. But what makes me happiest, what gives me the greatest pleasure is the handful of musician friends of mine, a park ranger, my hair salon lady, and even my house cleaning lady, these are people who work very hard and make little. In all these cases, owning TSLA shares has changed their lives.

Is Phil so absent-minded he might also not be taking into account the 5:1? It's just possible he's.....[wait...gotta do some math here....]...five times happier than he thinks.
Writing this because otherwise the pre-split #s of 102 and 114 shares are - just a little bit - odd (who buys 102 instead of 100, for example?). So...just maybe....

 

[wipster]

New T—0 at 2240

At night? Am I reading that right? If so, should be spectacular.

 

[Mo City]

At night? Am I reading that right? If so, should be spectacular.

UTC

 

[JusRelax]

At night? Am I reading that right? If so, should be spectacular.

22:40 UTC timezone

 

[wipster]

22:40 UTC timezone

Copy...

 

[wipster]

View attachment 616033
Picked up 2 more in Munich (actually Pilsting,130 km east). Truckloads coming, spotted alone 3 of them on the way to Pilsting from Nuremburg. 8 cars per truck.

Delivery center was fairly full of cars, people arriving every few minutes to pick up cars. Plenty cars on the lot (too many to count, I guess 3 digits).

My fourth car for this quarter will be ready on Dec 28.

So business is pretty good here. My investment thesis in cars is as follows:

Every employee in my company can have Tesla. I pay €42,000. The governments reimburses 6,000, so cost to me is 36,000.

The employee gets to drive the car. For this privilege the tax charges him taxes on 1/4 of 1% = €105 per month.
Depending on his tax rate this is costing him/her 20-50 € per month to drive a Tesla!
This is how we attract good employees, especially younger ones really like that - boys and gals alike. The girls tell me it is a guy magnet.

After six to twelve months we replace the cars with the newest and greatest. If we are lucky, we do not lose anything on the car (sell it for 36,000) - or very little. We will see how that goes.

win - for us
win - for the employees
win - for Tesla
win - for the environment

We charge the cars at our company from our 30 kW solar array combined with 3 power walls (one out of the prior referral program).

Maybe some other German business owners want to copy our model.

Tesla as a company car is now a very interesting option in Germany.

I live in the US and I want to work for you! Can I work from home and still get a Tesla?

 

[LTC_RRR]

Copy...

That's 1640 hrs Central or, for the aggies in the crowd, that is when Mickey's little hand is lust after the 4 and his big hand is on the 8

 

[Gabos]

Not really clear what you're trying to do here. It gets very murky when trying to divine what exactly is happening just with the volume and price data. The best I can offer is the hedge need data from my tables. You can see that since the index announcement, the raw hedge need has gone up by perhaps 50-55 million as price went up. May be haircut that a bit and say 30-35 million shares have been bought by market makers.

Beyond that, too much uncertainty for me to deduce one way or the other.

That's exactly what I was looking for, thanks!

IMO, that kind of analysis is worse than worthless. Because there is no way to quantify how much of the trading was "day trading" according to your characterization. The market makers probably have enough data to roughly approximate what you are trying to accomplish but that data is not publicly available. And, even if you had access to the same data the MM's have, you would need to aggregate it first and, even then, it would only be a rough approximation of what you are trying to achieve.

My advice: Expect the market to surprise you, either on timing, direction or magnitude (or a combination of the three).

This is actual advice!

I know it is a very rough estimate and might be even detrimental as you stated (if one takes it too seriously) but it could provide at least some hint at the sentiment for next week. Definitely expecting a surprise, hopefully a positive one

As stated, it's based on so many unclear assumptions that it's rather a guesswork with numbers.

I'll leave conclusion for the reader, table shows different scenarios of "real" traded volume between announcement and today depending on how much of the daily volume you believe is atributed to high-frequency and day trading.
Disclaimer: take with a handful of salt

 

[StealthP3D]

Not sure how many times this needs to be said but apparently at least once more; Tesla/Elon don’t care about short term SP movements. They encourage all who are short term traders/speculators etc... that if they don’t like the volatility of TSLA, then they should take their money some place else. It’s in writing in at least one of their ERs. Therefore, it’s of no consequence to them when they do anything that in turn might affect the SP.

If we could all keep that in mind and remember for next time, that’d be great.

That's a good reminder. But todays action was not caused by Elon. Elon is the primary reason we are sitting at $3000 (split adjusted) in the first place.

But what really shocks me every time this happens is that so many act like completely innocent newbie investors. As if this kind of trading price movement is unexpected or not normal for high growth company. Relax people! It's just a blip. In the next two days it might go down double what you just saw. That would be normal too. We only declined 7.1% If you feel shook up over this, I suggest the best course of action is to sell all your shares immediately because you are in the wrong stock. Heck, you probably shouldn't even be in individual stocks. Maybe check out some U.S. treasuries or something. Because stocks don't just go up, they go up and down. And they are not predictable in the short-term no matter how many times you say "but, but...S&P 500 inclusion". Expect the unexpected. Maybe it will go up tomorrow. maybe it will go down. It's not a big deal.

Tesla is more Great Dane than Chihuahua. If you wanna run with the big dogs, you gotta be comfortable peeing in the tall grass.

 

[traxila]

And yet, somehow, their stock prices behaved quite similarly to TSLA. So really, what is in order would be less hyperventilating about all these things that people imagine are causing TSLA's movements today. No explanation beyond it's just the same as all those other companies is needed.

How about that sort of relaxation? Take a look at Cloudflare (NET) if you want a comparison.

I get that tech stocks are volatile and that TSLA more than qualifies as a high beta.

Perhaps you remember me complaining all the time about the manipulation taking place with the TSLA SP .... well, actually no. I do not write much about that outside of the occasional statement of fact that WS obviously manipulates all stocks in both directions to its advantage as best as it can. Nothing new there, or to get worked up about. Way of the world, as it were.

In this case, you claim that a secondary and S&P inclusion is nothing to talk about or consider when it comes to the SP movement of TSLA specifically. Rather, I should simply take a cue from the macros and be still.

In this case, we can agree to disagree.

 

[Tachyon]

I agree .No one is happy to see the share price go down.
But TSLA does what it does.
Many longs here are used to this by now. as we have seen this scenario play out umpteen number of times.
To all the newbies , just as one great Packer put it- R E L A X.
Good times are ahead.
I guarantee you that the light at the end of the tunnel- is not , an oncoming train.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah! Take note TMC fam!!! Watch out for those posters!!!!

Thank you! It makes it easier when you self-identify.

Is self-deportation a thing here? That would make it even easier.

 

[ZenMan]

That's just silly talk. With the kind of volume TSLA trades at you don't need to do anything special to avoid significant price distortions on a measly 3,000 share trade. Timing is everything, not some covert action to avoid changing the price by a penny.

It was for 3000 call option contracts, not shares.

 

[Tachyon]

Owning TSLA is like climbing any 8000er.
I am not a mountaineer by any stretch of imagination.
But I do watch a lot of Youtube videos.
Makes me "the Adam Jonas of mountaineering" I guess!
Anyway, an ascent of any 8000er is slow and methodical.
You climb high and descend to rest low.
And repeat this a few times while climbing higher and higher before the final push to the summit.
remember not to spend too long at the summit- this is specially for the option holders.
Good luck everyone for a great next few trading sessions.

 

[Bet TSLA]

In this case, you claim that a secondary and S&P inclusion is nothing to talk about or consider when it comes to the SP movement of TSLA specifically.

Nope. What I claim is that if you are going to make noise about causation you should have some evidence. Correlation in time is not evidence. And when similar companies have their stock prices doing similar things that is evidence against.

Just because unique things are happening to Tesla doesn't mean that what the stock is doing has anything to do with them.