Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Here is today's TSLA Tech chart as of 09:30 EST: (Note: Upper-BB at Market Opening was $682.37)

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

All my stocks have strong long-term growth prospects. That is why I want to maintain meaningful exposure to each of them.

My comment came from your comparison of the relative performance of TSLA vs. the new stocks in your portfolio over the incredibly short period of one day.

My point was simply that stocks naturally fluctuate in the short-term and a one day period is an utterly meaningless yardstick from the perspective of a long-term investor. It's just white noise.

 

[asburgers]

tl;dr version for people on the other side of the paywall?

- Granholm, former gov of michigan, tapped for secretary of energy
- US risks being left behind if it doesn't dev alt energy tech, vocal proponent of EV tech
- Focus on rapidly developing and deploying these tech
- From Canada
- Arun Majumdar, considered for deputy sec, formerly led new research agency within Energy Dpt under Obama

 

[Tslynk67]

Nothing would surprise me but I'm coming to believe the S&P index fund managers just don't give a rip. They're going to do their job on Friday and buy the shares they need to buy.

Might be the case, but given that the average daily volume is ~50m shared traded and the indexes alone need 120m shares, it again begs the question, where will these come from and what affect will it have on the price?

Will they buy in after-market, will we see an infinity squeeze in after-market, or will front-runners flood the place looking for profits?

Nite that said front-runners want to maximise their profits too, so it’s in their interest to set higher limit sell orders.

TBH, looking forward to this nonsense being over...

 

[Tslynk67]

European options I would guess.

No, Euro options is a type of option and isn’t related to geographical location.

 

[Unpilot]

Might be the case, but given that the average daily volume is ~50m shared traded and the indexes alone need 120m shares, it again begs the question, where will these come from and what affect will it have on the price?

Will they buy in after-market, will we see an infinity squeeze in after-market, or will front-runners flood the place looking for profits?

Nite that said front-runners want to maximise their profits too, so it’s in their interest to set higher limit sell orders.

TBH, looking forward to this nonsense being over...

Currently a lot more sellers than buyers...seems the front runners just taking profits?

 

[BornToFly]

Not at all.

Their goal is to get their shares at exactly the market price as close to inclusion date as possible.

So the earlier ahead of inclusion they buy (and the earlier they sell other stuff to buy it) the larger their risk of index error.

That's why historically inclusion buying is almost always done at close the day before inclusion.

But how does that work when they need to buy >100M shares at the close price on Friday? Where are those shares going to suddenly come from at that closing price?

 

[Big Time]

Macros are also tanking

 

[Tslynk67]

Ah.. yes.

So all the action we see, is just MM milking the option buyers.. I guess you are correct.

How to best profit from this.. I should have sold options instead of buying I guess. :-D

Edit:

Then, we can assume there wont be a SP dip after friday, not until wednesday next week. Any dip should be bought by the index funds, as they can buy and push SP up to fridays close, and get them shares at the correct price.

Only reason there would be a dip is if front-runners/speculators bought excess of shares compared to the index and fund (unknown needs for them) buys.

If 120m are required and 120m are sold, price remains fairly static. Broadly speaking.

TBH, a new base-camp at 600-650 would be a very good situation going into 2021.

 

[chrsk]

Macros are also tanking

Does not help, but keep in mind that Tesla was down on good macros as well yesterday.

 

[Knightshade]

But how does that work when they need to buy >100M shares at the close price on Friday? Where are those shares going to suddenly come from at that closing price?

Comes from the (allegedly by some) 200 million front-run shares purchased specifically to sell to them.

This is (very roughly) 15% of float. Why do people keep acting like this is some unobtainable number of shares?

Tesla's trading volume spiked 1460% from its daily average during Tuesday's record-shattering rally (TSLA)

That's from a day -30 percent of float- traded in a single day.

 

[FrankSG]

2nd lowest first 15 min volume since announcement. 4.09M today vs 4.05M Dec 4th.

 

[viridi]

Pretty easy for THEM to bring TSLA down with the light volume. Relatively small sell orders (1,500 or so shares) are able to cap pretty easily cap when the volume is this light. Hopefully, we will see some buying volume come in as the morning progresses. With volume, TSLA could see a nice spring back relatively quickly.

 

[1101011]

tl;dr version for people on the other side of the paywall?

Granholm “is a proven leader on jobs, renewables, and a clean energy future who will bring empathy and experience to the Department of Energy,” Christine Pelosi, a Democratic Party strategist in California, and the daughter of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, tweeted Tuesday/ “And she’s a trailblazing former governor who constantly lifts up other women.”

 

[ggr]

Consensus seems to be that the index funds don't care about the stock price when they buy, so they can wait until Friday, even late Friday. But what about the benchmark funds? They are in it to make the biggest profit possible. So one would think they should be buying ahead of any liquidity problems. But I think they are all waiting for the first one (which may be happening as I type...)

 

[mongo]

Comes from the (allegedly by some) 200 million front-run shares purchased specifically to sell to them.

This is (very roughly) 15% of float. Why do people keep acting like this is some unobtainable number of shares?

Tesla's trading volume spiked 1460% from its daily average during Tuesday's record-shattering rally (TSLA)

That's from a day -30 percent of float- traded in a single day.

Volume of shares being traded back and forth is a very different thing than shares being traded once and held.
One share could be traded a thousand times in a day.
One share can only be acquired by a index fund once.

 

[chrsk]

Volume of shares being traded back and forth is a very different thing than shares being traded once and held.
One share could be traded a thousand times in a day.
One share can only be acquired by a index fund once.

Im long, but used the opportunity to drop my shares at open and then bought back 6$ lower

 

[wnorris]

Consensus seems to be that the index funds don't care about the stock price when they buy, so they can wait until Friday, even late Friday. But what about the benchmark funds? They are in it to make the biggest profit possible. So one would think they should be buying ahead of any liquidity problems. But I think they are all waiting for the first one (which may be happening as I type...)

My thinking as well...if you are b/m'd against the S&P why would you want to wait knowing the size of this index entry is unprecedented. A sensible plan would be to at least build out a portion of your eventual position (say 10 to 15%) early while the price appears weak. This all assumes your fund is starting with no position which from the Bloomberg article most all would be.

 

[Knightshade]

CBut what about the benchmark funds? They are in it to make the biggest profit possible.

Wouldn't back in November post-announcement at like $120/share less have been the time to do that then?

 

[phantasms]

Form CT just hit IR

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/999999999720005723/filename1.pdf

"
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION December 16, 2020

ORDER GRANTING CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Tesla, Inc.
File No. 001-34756 - CF#35644

Tesla, Inc. submitted an application under Rule 24b-2 requesting an extension of a previous grant of confidential treatment for information it excluded from the Exhibits to a Form 10-Q filed on November 3, 2017.

Based on representations by Tesla, Inc. that this information qualifies as confidential commercial or financial information under the Freedom of Information Act, 5 U.S.C. 552(b)(4), the Division of Corporation Finance has determined not to publicly disclose it. Accordingly, excluded information from the following exhibits will not be released to the public for the time period specified:

Exhibit 10.5 through December 31, 2023 Exhibit 10.6 through December 31, 2023

For the Commission, by the Division of Corporation Finance, pursuant to delegated authority:

Patti J. Dennis
Chief, Office of Disclosure Support"