Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Mon, Dec 28, 2020

TSLA share price: 665.10 +$3.33 +0.5%

Volume: 285,641 shares (Modest)

Max Pain (07:00 ET): $620 (+$20 from Fri)

Cheers!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Can I Assume your house is $400k and that is 0.4% of the assets... so total assets is $100M?

You know what happens when you assume? No. Key word is "other".

 

[Mich]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Mon, Dec 28, 2020

TSLA share price: 665.10 +$3.33 +0.5%

Volume: 285,641 shares (Modest)

Max Pain (07:00 ET): $620 (+$20 from Fri)

View attachment 621719

Cheers!

How can max pain change while thr option market is closed?

 

[jw934]

How can max pain change while thr option market is closed?

I assume the max pain for Dec 24 expiry on Dec 24 was $600, and the max pain for Dec 31 on Dec 24 was $620

 

[HG Wells]

Great scanning micrographs !

Up 13 in premarket.

 

[jbcarioca]

Well Apple never does, their reputation for secrecy is legendary in the Valley.

OTOH AAPL suppliers tend to disclose some order information, if they are public, anyway. That is never quite definitive but close Apple watchers generally have a decent idea. FWIW, I am a devoted AAPL watcher (I've owned AAPL shares since before TSLA went public and I am equally obsessive at tracking them as I am TSLA.)

I am convinced that Apple is working hard on automotive products including a number of control systems. I think they have precisely zero intention of building or branding any automotive products but will certainly brand software they provide and perhaps some hardware too.

Think logically, please. AAPL knows how to build chips that are spectacular advances over anything generic. TSLA has done the same. In both cases the 'secret sauce' is designing for a specific purpose. AAPL is devoting major resources to build on the success they've achieved with M1. They are trying to redefine other products, such as Apple TV and CarPlay to do things in a way they've not been before. Apple succeeds when they do things that make life easier for people and eliminate impediments in the process.

So: better automotive products, absolutely. The infamous 'Project Titan' is almost certainly about automotive and equally certainly not about building or banding specific vehicles.

From the day Apple bought Siri from SRI they began a long voyage that led then to designing their own chips and learning applied AI in many invisible applications from cameras to process efficiency. How can they ignore automotive applications?

Navigation, Voice controls, electrical-electronic-battery management, operational efficiency...
All those require deep understand of automotive future needs. Of course that looks much like building their own cars, but it is not! It is taking the highest profit stream while allowing traditional OEM's to continue treating them as a Tier One or Two supplier. Think about what OEM is capable of the technologies that make Tesla work. We all repeat: None! How many of them would give Apple a fortune to deliver systems integration with or without branding? Answer that for yourself.

AAPL is a past master at ignoring market share and finding profits. Every quarter Tim stands up and talks market share because the "analysts" expect that. Then he delivers profits.

No matter how many idiots say Apple is launching a car brand they will not make it true.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How can max pain change while thr option market is closed?

The source updates once per day, at 7:00 am. This max-pain value represents the open option contracts as of the end-of-day on Friday.

Most people here do not realize that metric is always 24+ hrs old. Outdated by design.

Btw, only the Options Volume column (and specifically NOT the "Open Interest" column) is updated during the day in the 'Open Interest' table, while the entire Max-Pain table is only updated once per day at 7 a.m. ET.

Sad, but best free data available.

 

[corduroy]

I got the update...but no cool horn sounds...model S left out of that fun I guess.

Me too, I guess my model 3 is "too old" to have the external speaker.

Wondering if the ability to drive down the road broadcasting fart noises is worth upgrading?

 

[AudubonB]

Thank you, @jbcarioca, for once again injecting a modicum of sanity and insight into the discussion.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I assume the max pain for Dec 24 expiry on Dec 24 was $600, and the max pain for Dec 31 on Dec 24 was $620

No, those are two separate contract expiry dates. Ironically, actual max pain for Fridays is NEVER published due to their update/roll-over policy (ie: on Monday, you can't look backward to last Friday).

It's just a coincidence that the two have the same value this morning. Here's the history of the evolution of Max Pain for the two expiry dates:

Yes, I track this every day.

 

[CyberDutchie]

What a garbage article on Market Watch this morning:

Is Tesla the next AOL? That’s what this strategist is warning

Laughable! You can instantly tell how completely incompetent these so called strategists are the minute they are starting to compare Tesla to a (failed) company of the past.

Also, of course the article closing by stating their wishful thinking:

Tesla shares were drifting lower ahead of Monday’s opening bell, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, 0.55%, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite NQ00, 0.92% and S&P 500 ES00, 0.75% were all pointing to a positive start to the week.

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla is sharing any relevant IP on 4680 and Tabless.cells.
It is relatively easy for Panasonic and LG to covert existing factories to make these cells.
Perhaps slightly harder for CATL, who probably don't have factories making cylindrical cells.
All EVs will start to migrate towards 4680 and structural pack when they can do so.
4680 might more or less become the industry standard and start to obsolete prismatic packs.
So tabless 4680 is accelerating the mission across all EVs.

Likewise Tesla is probably sharing Silicon Anode tech with Panasonic and probably LG, again that is because Tesla wants them to make cells with that Anode and this probably extends to many of the other chemical properties of the cell.
How much of that can be used to help other EV companies isn't clear, a lot of the information can be got from teardowns, but Tesla owns the IP and can protect it to some extent.

Tesla may not sharing:-

• DBE
• Castings Alloy...
• Cathode Process
• Formation Equipment

...

It seems clear that Tesla is vastly ahead of competitors in cost reduction specifically because of the four above that you listed. From Maxwell we already know that DBE needed lots of refinement to be earth shattering, and probably that is real right now. Materials are the not-so-secret-sauce for Tesla, primarily developed with SpaceX. From the proprietary inconel formulation that permitted the precise an accurate temperature management which made the P85D Ludicrous to the aluminum alloys which allow that all those magnificent large castings and so on, Tesla has managed to find how to make the Grohmann, Perbix, Hibar etc acquisitions deliver crucial process and materials advances. In each case they've kept the innovators happy, generally frazzled a bit by the sudden increase in their work pace.

Over and over it seems that what Tesla/SpaceX do is acquire engineering talent and keep them. How can anybody else compete with SpaceX/Tesla. Certainly not Boeing, Lockheed, Toyota or VAG.

Every analyst who claims TSLA is overpriced simply does not understand that talent base, unleashed. Reusable rockets, gigantic castings, the Octovalve...
If ever any company deserved a sky high PE ratio it is certainly is TSLA...
Just think of the virtuous effects of only one thing: those gigantic aluminum castings.

Two years from now when GF-3, GF-4 and GF-5 are in production TE will be hitting its' stride, automotive will be a new paradigm obvious to everyone.

 

[lascavarian]

Interesting to speculate about the impact of Tesla vehicles and the potential abilities as a kind of wearable. Tesla has already done some work on the air quality in the cockpit. It would seem possible for this to evolve into a diagnostic platform based on breath. The vehicle can sample the cabin air and could run diagnostics.

The camera systems may be able to make some guesses about temperature of the occupants. Weight in the seat. Almost anything that a wearable could do could be integrated into a Tesla without having to strap something onto your body.

 

[HG Wells]

What a garbage article on Market Watch this morning:

Is Tesla the next AOL? That’s what this strategist is warning

Laughable! You can instantly tell how completely incompetent these so called strategists are the minute they are starting to compare Tesla to a (failed) company of the past.

Also, of course the article closing by stating their wishful thinking:

Tesla shares were drifting lower ahead of Monday’s opening bell, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, 0.55%, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite NQ00, 0.92% and S&P 500 ES00, 0.75% were all pointing to a positive start to the week.

Wait, Next AOL ?
Tesla is mailing out millions and millions of CD's ?

 

[Unpilot]

wo years from now when GF-3, GF-4 and GF-5 are in production TE will be hitting it's stride, automotive will be a new paradigm obvious to everyone.

This....and that is why so many here are buying Island...retiring early....and some buying mountains.
Understanding a paradigm shift ahead of time is very profitable.

 

[15Peter20]

So TL0.de is up around 4% so far today. Does this have any effect on, or relation to, TSLA?
I don’t see all that much of a correlation other than at a macro level and really don’t get how the two stocks’ behaviours are linked.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is today's TSLA Tech chart as of 09:30 EST: (Note: Upper-BB at Market Opening was $694.86)

Pre-market Volume was about: 1,276,194 shares.

Cheers!

 

[heltok]

So TL0.de is up around 4% so far today. Does this have any effect on, or relation to, TSLA?
I don’t see all that much of a correlation other than at a macro level and really don’t get how the two stocks’ behaviours are linked.

Convert it to usd and compare prices, they usually are very close. If the market in US goes up after close in Europe on Friday evening you can expect the change to be different on Monday, but the price is generally close.

 

[heltok]

Tesla to start operations in India next year - report

(Reuters) -Tesla Inc will come to India early next year, country’s transport minister Nitin Gadkari told national daily the Indian Express on Monday.

The electric-car maker will start with sales and then might look at assembly and manufacturing based on the response, the minister told here the newspaper.

Tesla and the minister’s office could not be reached by Reuters for comment.


India has been keen to reduce its oil dependence and cut down on pollution, but its efforts to promote electric vehicles have been stymied by a lack of investment in manufacturing and infrastructure such as charging stations.

The first model to be launched will be Model 3, the cheapest among Tesla vehicles, with prices starting at over $74,739 (5.5 million Indian rupees), according to a report in the Economic Times on Saturday. (bit.ly/355Y4i3)

 

[Unpilot]

The first model to be launched will be Model 3, the cheapest among Tesla vehicles, with prices starting at over $74,739 (5.5 million Indian rupees), according to a report in the Economic Times on Saturday. (bit.ly/355Y4i3)

Starting at $74,739??