These Stocks Will Win No Matter Who Wins the EV Race
Motley Fool continues to demonstrate that they just don't get Tesla. Here's an article that claims to pick wins no matter who wins the EV race.
They begin with the unsupported assertion that EV stocks are overvalued "anyway you look at it." Apparently they are ignorant of Tesla bull theses.
So if they are not recommending Tesla as a way to play the EV race, what do they recommend? NextEra Energy, a power producer with renewable assets; Switchback Energy, which is a SPAC for CargePoint; and a biomethane producer I've never heard of. Allegedly these three are winners no matter who dominates the EV market. But is that true specifically if Tesla were to overwhelmingly dominate.
NextEra has done a good job pivoting to wind, solar and battery generation. But does this position them to enjoy growth it Tesla brings more EVs to market? No. What Motley Fool overlooks is that Tesla Energy produces more power than what Tesla and its EVs produce. Tesla Energy is first in line to benefit from power demand growth from EVs it brings to market. Tesla Energy is a direct competitor to NextEra. So it is not at all certain that NextEra wins no matter who wins the EV race.
ChargePoint may have a valid subscription-based business model. But it is in direct competition with Tesla Superchargers. The vast majority of Tesla owners will not need a subscription to ChargePoint. The greater share Tesla has of the EV market, the less residual demand there is for ChargePoint. So again, ChargePoint is not a winner "no matter who wins the EV race."
Finally, the assertion behind biomethane is that heavy duty commercial vehicles can't all run on batteries so their must be an EV angle for biomethane producers, "no matter who wins the EV race." This is wrong on so many levels, not the least of which is a bloated natural gas industry outbidding each other for the same crumbs of decline demand. But specifically if Tesla wins with the Semi, the who CNG vehicle investment thesis falls apart.
To recap, if Tesla wins the EV race, the future is uncertain for these three alternative investments. Specifically, Tesla competes directly with each of them if you appreciate the full scope of where Musk is leading Tesla. It is curious that Motley Fool (and others) are so eager to find alternatives to investing in Tesla that they miss out on the full scope of investing in Tesla.
It's simple: if you really want to invest in EVs, start with Tesla. Take the time to appreciate all the ways Tesla will extract value from every segment of the EV value chain. Then consider residual opportunities for other companies to participate in the new ecosystem.
