Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[strago13]

Masterclass in walking the SP down.

 

[Sancho]

Even though today is a Thursday, it is a weekly options expiration day because of the holiday tomorrow. Big call option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) may want to protect some of their positions by attempting to push the TSLA share price downward into today's close. They can cover any shorts on Monday, but the options expire today. They would likely prefer a close at $700, although $710 may be more reasonable. However, they'll have to fight the money managers performing end-of-year window dressing.

I assume that the big players have already hedged or liquidated their positions on options expiring today. For example, many of the folks that sold 700 calls did so several weeks ago, and made their profits before this week. Another group made their profits through Wednesday of this week. By the time it gets to today, the lion's share has been liquidated or sold. The folks either winning big or losing big today are for the most part day traders and algos. Just about anyone now in the last hour with open short or long positions on 12/31 700s are short term traders (and by short term here I mean minute by minute) and amateurs. It may well land exactly at 700, but that's just the day traders and algos doing their thing.

 

[Mike Smith]

TSLA is up less than the S&P since the inclusion date now, so this could be the bottom.

 

[Boomer19]

they’re really going to sell it back below 700? losers. pretty subpar way to end the year.
despite 2020 treating many of us well, good riddance to it as far as i’m concerned. ive had enough.

 

[Duffer]

The Tesla Shop recently lowered the diecast prices of the Model S, 3, and X to $175 while the Roadster and Semi remained at $250. The Roadster and Semi are now $175 as well.

The end of quarter sales push is real!

That's curious, I've never met a Tesla owner who told me they had a subscription to another charging network. Perhaps this is a more local phenomena.

It would be nice to hear from others. You can count me as a Tesla owner who has never used a non-Tesla charger.

My employer has several ChargePoint stalls located in our parking structure. I charged there until my Tesla home charger was installed. I keep the ChargePoint card in the "cubby" for those Bay area shopping trips. It's nice pulling into a full lot and parking in the ChargePoint stalls up front.

 

[lafrisbee]

My Perspective is that the "year" has ended at the close of market today. Sure I could find some bad things to dwell on, but the Biggest things in this past year were good for me.
This has been such a lovely year. My bride was furloughed from Disney. So since March we've been good company...well that and the two standard poodles.
And TSLA kept me entertained, and made me financially independent on a good ol Alabama Redneck level. The trucks are paid for (and cybernotatrucks reserved), new fishing line on all the reels, plenty of ammo, and the house loan could have been paid off but it don't make sense. And with the money left over I could live beyond my means for eternity. But I ain't stupid.
I could just cash out git the dawgs and the wife and move back into the woods and die one day out fishing. But I ain't stupid...yet.
HODL is good, at least for another year.
And remember....
In the New Year we will STILL be ants in an ant farm.

 

[lafrisbee]

Back to the amateurs (me).
Hey LOOK it ain't dropping like a stone
yet.

Shut the hell up.

 

[Christine69420]

Norway is doing it's thing trying to prop up the share price - 4 more Teslas registered this evening. So 71 today.

With 7,5 hours or so left of 2020 Tesla has definately delivered in Norway!

67 new Teslas registered today - 4,284 in December and 8,544 in total for the year.

View attachment 622891

Source: Tesla Registration Stats

Registrations have stopped counting up for a while - they might have gotten the rest of the day off.

 

[Mo City]

A LEAPS question to all.

Yesterday my Ameritrade account was showing 2023 Mar17 leaps to be 130$ bid but open interest was 0 for all the available OTM calls. Today it is up by 20$ and the open interest numbers is a lot.

What happened? Did a bunch of people wrote calls overnight?

These are soooooo expensive. The ITM ones are even way more expensive. Who buys at these crazy prices? What logic do you use to calculate if buying leaps is cheaper vs stocks?

Perhaps wait and try to "buy the dip". Or just play the long game and plunge in.

TIming is hard. I bought a large number of Jan 2023 OTM LEAPS a week ago at the absolutely worst time (I was kicking myself afterwards) but they are up over 25% already (vs. 5.7% for TSLA).

 

[Curt Renz]

they’re really going to sell it back below 700? losers. pretty subpar way to end the year.
despite 2020 treating many of us well, good riddance to it as far as i’m concerned. ive had enough.

The real fireworks may come on Monday, when Q4 deliveries are likely to be reported, perhaps along with other announcements.

 

[Mike Smith]

Great, the whole year is ruined.

 

[Fobble]

It would be a major disappointment if TSLA closes below 700 today

 

[CyberDutchie]

My prediction for 2021 Tesla: next year will be the year when solar roof finally takes off.

Watch this video where Matt Ferrell interviews a roof installer. Super insightful, plus detailed footage of the product which I hadn’t seen before:

(Apologies if link already posted before...)

 

[BabyBull]

Retail investor here, but I did, but only to manage positions, -- against Sold Jan 23's from a while back. Closed most of the Jan 23's, but decided to shadow 4 of them with 5 March Calls. Different strikes, but roughly same Delta - but with march 23 having more leverage. cheers!!

I am a retail investor but I guess one of the newer/poorer one. So really apprehensive of dropping 15k on a single leap. Earlier I chased the call options while the IV was high and I ended up selling at a loss. So trying to find what tricks the option guys are doing to breakeven/make more money.

As I understand a call option price depends stock price, IV and time premium. So, the March23 Leaps price will depend on these two but not time, since it is so far into the future. So, I can afford to buy a single call at cheaper price if SP and IV, both drop in a short period. Hope. But trying to learn from the pro's.

Where do you check the leverage?

 

[Nocturnal]

I just bought a die cast Model 3 so that should be enough to keep us above 700.

 

[elasalle]

Walkdown is good, but likely will cause some buying pressure towards the end and next Mon morning.

Happy New Year!!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

They must have relieved the intern for the last hour of trading in 2020

 

[elasalle]

I am a retail investor but I guess one of the newer/poorer one. So really apprehensive of dropping 15k on a single leap. Earlier I chased the call options while the IV was high and I ended up selling at a loss. So trying to find what tricks the option guys are doing to breakeven/make more money.

As I understand a call option price depends stock price, IV and time premium. So, the March23 Leaps price will depend on these two but not time, since it is so far into the future. So, I can afford to buy a single call at cheaper price if SP and IV, both drop in a short period. Hope. But trying to learn from the pro's.

Where do you check the leverage?

Sometimes your hand is forced.

Something further out, is mostly more leveraged. (this is my assumption for the trade)
Here is the formula:
Leverage = (Delta*SP – OP)/OP

 

[Causalien]

Wow
Much Expiration

 

[lascavarian]

Just downloading 2020.48.30! Thanks Tesla for a New Year surprise. Happy New Year all and an even better one to come!