Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

ARK sold more TSLA today:

The percentage of TSLA holding is now:

• ARKW: 9.99%
• ARKQ: 11.99%
• ARKK: 9.93%

So they, barely, dropped under 10% on two of their funds. (At least until tomorrow. )

 

[Knightshade]

Seriously who is still shorting? I thought they are all gone...
Maybe, short common to buy OTM calls? I should try.
/s

Given the #s remain low through 12/15 then very large jump at 12/31 seems like it was shorting expecting a post-inclusion drop off?

Not like there weren't folks even in this bullish thread expecting that to happen somewhat, so surely the shorties did even moreso?

Doesn't appear to have worked any better than all the previous times they thought it was a good idea of course...

 

[jhm]

Someday when I'm a Tesla billionaire and bored, I think I might try my hand at shorting Tesla. I hear that's one way to become a Teslanaire.

 

[Chocochip]

There’s no reason to hide vehicles when they could just as easily announce a refresh. Q4 is over, what’s the risk in announcing?

They might still have “old version” cars in distribution channels, whether to be sold as new or used. Announcing a refresh instantly causes the value of those cars to drop significantly (proportional to how different the new version is). So they might be waiting to empty or reduce the stock of previous-model cars.

 

[Hammerhead786]

In that case, they are about to have an avalanche of the cheapest electricity in the world.

I wish that was the case. Unfortunately there's too many corrupt people in the country and government looking after only themselves. There's way too much load shedding going on and the summers there are unbearable. Pakistan is a ripe country for solar and Tesla would make an absolute killing if only the country wasn't so self destructive.

 

[Todd Burch]

RE the S & X line, my guess is that it really has been shut down for a refresh and it’s just taking a little longer than expected. Reasoning:

1. We haven’t seen ANY S/X come off the line this quarter yet, that I know of.

2. If S/X are long in the tooth and due for a refresh, it doesn’t make sense to refresh the tooling and put that effort into the line without improvements or design changes to the car.

3. When it was suggested that the Plaid timeline was sandbagged, Elon Twitter-winked in return.

4. Lucid specs may have encouraged them to prioritize Plaid a bit so they don’t get beaten at their own game. (Is Lucid close to having a manufacturing line for production? Have they gone back to the drawing board to see if they can squeeze a bit more out of the Air?)

5. Tesla appeared to be trying to liquidate as much S/X inventory as possible at the end of Q4.

6. Start of year (right after end of year rush) seems the best time to introduce a refresh.

7. I don’t believe we’ve seen this length of shutdown before.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Lucid looking to go public through SPAC in $15 billion deal

Looks like we have a Lucid SPAC on its way...

 

[NicoV]

I keep reading comments from people who think apple will beat tesla. Presumably based on it taking them from 2014 till today to claim they might have their first car by 2027, and that ooops, they know nothing about cars, or large-scale batteries, but hey... apple are cool, and their product boxes are really well designed, so despite outsourcing everything to foxcon...yup you bet they are going to crush tesla when they release the amazing icar... *sigh*

The Apple car is probably ready, but Apple is still figuring out how to design a box with a nice unboxing experience for the car .

 

[Mo City]

It's 25 mins prior to opening in Frankfurt and often Bid/Ask prices for TL0 aren't even posted this early.

However, current pre-market bid/ask is EUR 705.20/708.70 ($861/$866). Has something happened in the last 5 hours I'm not aware of?

Almost certainly it will open close to $850 where the NASDAQ left off.

 

[cyclingthealps]

Short interest increased from the period 12/15/2020 (share price $633) to 12/31/2020 (share price $701).

The short amount is skyrocketing to values never seen before. There are 15 million shares shorted more in this time period, probably to help the S&P inclusion, but what do I know.

• Shares shorted from 45.280.000 to 60.620.000
• Float shorted from 5,96% to 6,99
• Amount shorted from $28.641.897.500,00 to $42.526.142.400,00

Again very different from what Ihor reported https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1340031937436672002.
Because Ihor is consistently wrong, it makes no sense for me to keep following him.

There is a lot of noise about shorts on Twitter, so there could be an increase in interest to short $tsla. My thoughts are it had to do with the S&P inclusion. We have the same amount of shares shorted as on 15.09.2020 but the share price is $350 more, this is very positive.

Overview of the short interest from the last few months:

 

[mrdoubleb]

The Apple car is probably ready, but Apple is still figuring out how to design a box with a nice unboxing experience for the car .

I am sure when they finally unveil it, they will announce amazing technical innovations, like this never-before seen marvelous new feature that is round in shape and helps the car roll on it smoothly on the road. They will call it: the iWheel (TM).

Mark my words!

 

[EV forever]

Elon liked an Indian dagger. So my take is that he's driving that dagger into the heart of all that is bad in India (as it pertains to the Tesla mission that is)

You got all that from just Elon liking the picture of a dagger? I still don’t see it.

 

[MC3OZ]

They might still have “old version” cars in distribution channels, whether to be sold as new or used. Announcing a refresh instantly causes the value of those cars to drop significantly (proportional to how different the new version is). So they might be waiting to empty or reduce the stock of previous-model cars.

Keeping that in mind, the earnings letter, is one opportunity to announce the "2021 Model S/X".
All the 'old version' cars should be cleared, and all lingering 2020 orders delivered.
It is before any US Model S/X deliveries as seen here:- Model S Delivery Update

My delivery dates are Feb 14 - Mar 14.

The advantage is they can formally inform everyone at the same time, and have a blurb which details the main selling points..

They don't need to drag in more orders right now, but this will help sell all Model S/X made in Q1.

 

[FS_FRA]

The Apple car is probably ready, but Apple is still figuring out how to design a box with a nice unboxing experience for the car .

Actually the biggest issue for Apple is, that they have to figure out how to justify not including a charger and cable in the box.....

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks for the short interest report, I had a gut feeling today with all of the specific share price capping, that we are dealing with a new round of ‘smart shorts’ who got in after this huge run-up to short their obvious overvalued target (think Burry, etc).

Personally, I expect the next report to be even higher in 15 days, because Tesla is one of prime targets now for anyone that come along with no research and a gut the market has gone crazy. Eventually this is only fuel for our eventual march higher, but I’m anxious to see how much fight they have in them to keep us within shouting distance of the inclusion price.

I’m usually less than 50/50 on my assumptions, but the short interest is worth discussing among those with a better handle on the things

Yeah, but that number is from end last year when the SP closed $705, so all of those positions are at least 20% underwater right now, needs a serious correction for them to profit.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I’ll go and do a flyover tomorrow over Fremont to see if anything is going on wrt s&x!

Waiting for my new laptop that takes Apple 1 month (!!!) to build (just a simple upgrade of 512 -> 1tb ssd in a new macbook air order) and in the meantime it’s a lot harder to take care of post-fly work, but it might be worth it for what we’re about to witness...

Anyone can give any tips on where to look? Which line makes the s&x?

Would you mind swinging by Kato Rd on your fly by? I'd be keen to see how far the building has progressed with construction, and if they still have a lot of materials in the carpark (which to me is an indication of how mature the cell line is - lots of material = still in iterate mode, less material = more mature cell line).

 

[M|S|W]

"I shorted Tesla at $833.43"

thehobbyinvestorthatcould.com/i-shorted-tesla-at-833/

edit: Just a clarification, it`s not me that is going short on tesla

 

[Prunesquallor]

"I shorted Tesla at $833.43"

thehobbyinvestorthatcould.com/i-shorted-tesla-at-833/

edit: Just a clarification, it`s not me that is going short on tesla

I pride myself in the the fact that I have no fracking idea what he is saying.

 

[winfield100]

The real EV Tesla competitor needs to bring it. Not some car that can match the specs of a Tesla, but one that thinks from the ground up on how to scale up to 10-20 million (meaning price point needs to be under 25k) cars or else the conversation is over by 2023 anyways.

1. How are you getting the drive train?
2. Where are all the service stations?
3. How will it be made for under 25k?

Answer those questions and you'll have a chance to be in the same conversation with Tesla.

That's why the competition is ICE, because they can answer all of the questions above today.

4. Where will you get the fuel as it become more difficult to get, more regulated and increasingly expensive, tomorrow and tomorrow.........unless you park it 100% of the time and not just 95% of the time

 

[WarpedOne]

The real EV Tesla competitor needs to bring it

The bar to be competitive with tesla is rising ...
- in 2009 you needed to produce a few thousand sportscars at a 6 figure price
- in 2012 you needed to produce some tens of thousands familiy sedans with 250miles range under $100k and think about charging
- in 2015 you needed to produce even 7-seater SUV with AWD, fastcharging, connectivity
- in 2018 you needed to produce houndred thousand familiy sedan with 300miles range at $50k
- in 2021 you need to produce 500 thousand sport sedans with 350 miles range under 50k with supercharging, connectivity, autonomy
- in 2024 you may very well just call it a day