Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

You know that part of the reason I did this analysis was to determine how Tesla Energy works, along with other solar companies, to determine what their roadmap might look like in the future. If Tesla is interested in buying the cars they produce themselves, its fair that they might do the same with solar/roofs and sell the electricity back to the grid and stabilizes through Autobidder.

Edit: Elon has mentioned building a massive solar farm somewhere, like Texas, to power the entire US in the past...as an example.

I've been suggesting since the Semi reveal that Megachargers should be grid connected solar farms with big batteries.
The grid connection is for selling electricity to the grid, including peaking electricity - that should be profitable.
Megacharging and Supercharging for 7 cents per kWh would be profitable.

I think Elon was just giving an idea of how much solar was needed to power the US, not suggesting locating it all in one place.

IMO Solar farm Megachargers need to be built on cheap land near major highways about 250 miles apart, if they were built, they would be very significant in aggregate.

My view is based on a a very literal interpretation of things Elon has said, it seems that Tesla are at least open to the idea of using solar to power fast charging.

 

[The Accountant]

Let's take a moment to appreciate Tesla's progress over the past 18 months. On July 1st, 2018 as Tesla was emerging from 'production hell' with the Model 3 rampup, Elon sent out this tweet to congratulate his team:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "7000 cars, 7 days Tesla Team "​

Later that day, the CEO of Ford Europe took it upon himself to beat his chest on Twitter while tossing some shade at Elon:

Steven Armstrong on Twitter: "7000 cars, circa 4 hours. Ford Team https://t.co/FZSclsFoS0"​

Ha, ha what a burn, wot? U showed 'em! Now fast forward 18 months. Tesla AVERAGED 14000 cars every 7 days for all of 2020Q4 (yes, Tesla DOUBLED production in 18 mths). Ford (and every other auto major in 2020), not so much. Let's take a sample of Ford "chest thumping" in Q2:

CNBC Now on Twitter: "BREAKING: Ford Motor to borrow $15.4B to offset production shutdown, company suspend dividend and withdraws guidance for 2020. US Top News and Analysis"​

And Tesla? Just +$12B cash via 3 separate Cap Raises in 2020 (what the Ford?)

Cheers!

...and let's not forget the recent news:
Ford to end manufacturing in Brazil, sees $4.1 billion in charges from South American restructuring.

They are closing 3 plants in Brazil. Of the 4.1B charge, $2.5B is cash. What a difference...Tesla spends $ billions to build factories while Ford spends $ billions to close factories

Ford to end manufacturing in Brazil, sees $4.1 billion in charges from South American restructuring

 

[ZachF]

Let's take a moment to appreciate Tesla's progress over the past 30 months. On July 1st, 2018 as Tesla was emerging from 'production hell' with the Model 3 rampup, Elon sent out this tweet to congratulate his team:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "7000 cars, 7 days Tesla Team "​

Later that day, the CEO of Ford Europe took it upon himself to beat his chest on Twitter while tossing some shade at Elon:

Steven Armstrong on Twitter: "7000 cars, circa 4 hours. Ford Team https://t.co/FZSclsFoS0"​

Ha, ha what a burn, wot? U showed 'em! Now fast forward 30 months. Tesla AVERAGED 14000 cars every 7 days for all of 2020Q4 (yes, Tesla DOUBLED production in 30 mths). Ford (and every other auto major in 2020), not so much. Let's take a sample of Ford "chest thumping" in Q2:

CNBC Now on Twitter: "BREAKING: Ford Motor to borrow $15.4B to offset production shutdown, company suspend dividend and withdraws guidance for 2020. US Top News and Analysis"​

And Tesla? Just +$12B cash via 3 separate Cap Raises in 2020 (what the Ford?)

Cheers!

Telsas revenues should be around 11 billion this quarter, and Ford and GM in the low 30 billion range. 1/3rd their total.

Last year it was ~1/6th their total.

2017 was ~1/15th their total.

 

[Artful Dodger]

...and let's not forget the recent news:
Ford to end manufacturing in Brazil, sees $4.1 billion in charges from South American restructuring.

They are closing 3 plants in Brazil. Of the 4.1B charge, $2.5B is cash. What a difference...Tesla spends $ billions to build factories while Ford spends $ billions to close factories

Ford to end manufacturing in Brazil, sees $4.1 billion in charges from South American restructuring

Indeed, even before the covid crisis, Ford was already planning to abandon carmaking in N. America:

Ford To Ditch Cars In North America, Focus On Trucks And SUVs | NPR.org (Apr 26, 2018)

Kinda sounds like now they're not afraid of "change", they're afraid of "folding money".

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Telsas revenues should be around 11 billion this quarter, and Ford and GM in the low 30 billion range. 1/3rd their total.

Last year it was ~1/6th their total.

2017 was ~1/15th their total.

So by Q3 21 ----Tesla revenues will be more! Got it!

 

[Zaxxon]

I really think something is going on with a refresh simply due to the slowdown of new Firmware rollout. I am kinda nerd about Tesla things (I mean, i do live on these forums after-all) and check Teslafi Firmware tracker just about daily and seems like a huge slow down in firmware roll outs. There is someone on Twitter who dives into the new code released each firmware and finds hidden/upcoming features called greentheonly and I feel like they are stopping new firmware from being pushed out due to some upcoming info on the new S/X to keep people from leaking any potential info about a refresh/ new features.

V11 be comin', yo. I don't think firmware slowdown indicates anything more than what we already knew: V11 is imminent.

Which is not to say that new S/X can't be coming. Just that I wouldn't infer that from firmware activity.

 

[gabeincal]

I’ll go and do a flyover tomorrow over Fremont to see if anything is going on wrt s&x!

Waiting for my new laptop that takes Apple 1 month (!!!) to build (just a simple upgrade of 512 -> 1tb ssd in a new macbook air order) and in the meantime it’s a lot harder to take care of post-fly work, but it might be worth it for what we’re about to witness...

Anyone can give any tips on where to look? Which line makes the s&x?

 

[rallykeeper]

Warning: I'm throwing a bit of an after-hours grenade into this crowd....

I'm in fanciful speculation mode trying to put together a bunch of bits of information over the past few weeks and I'm arriving at the following conclusion:

I will not be surprised if Apple pays for and engages Tesla to build it a car factory (which Tesla would run as a contract manufacturer). I will also not be surprised if this is announced sooner rather than later.

Why?

• If Apple really does want to build and sell a car, this solves Apple's manufacturing problem without really threatening Tesla's core competency of building factories that build energy products.
• It leverages what Apple is good at -- design and marketing -- with its enormous piles of cash.
• It expands demand for EVs further and accelerates the transition to EVs -- both within Tesla's and Elon's stated goals.
• Tesla gets to improve its operating leverage and becomes more profitable.

There's a lot of reasons why this is a kooky theory (bad blood between the two companies, Tesla stubbornness, Apple stubbornness, Apple's lack of distribution channels, etc). And, I'm inclined to believe it really is a kooky theory.

However, if you were Apple and looking for a partner to build your cars, why would you choose to partner with Hyundai or any other legacy manufacturer?

Wouldn't you look to the automotive company whose CEO is saying loud and proud that "the factory is the product"?

Tim might very well offer to buy one of those products...



postscript: I'm pretty sure this idea has been hashed out long ago on this board, though I can't recall when -- it just came back to my mind because of recent chatter about Apple and my own Kremlinologist approach to Elon tweets and actions...

 

[goinfraftw]

Warning: I'm throwing a bit of an after-hours grenade into this crowd....

I'm in fanciful speculation mode trying to put together a bunch of bits of information over the past few weeks and I'm arriving at the following conclusion:

I will not be surprised if Apple pays for and engages Tesla to build it a car factory (which Tesla would run as a contract manufacturer). I will also not be surprised if this is announced sooner rather than later.

Why?

• If Apple really does want to build and sell a car, this solves Apple's manufacturing problem without really threatening Tesla's core competency of building factories that build energy products.
• It leverages what Apple is good at -- design and marketing -- with its enormous piles of cash.
• It expands demand for EVs further and accelerates the transition to EVs -- both within Tesla's and Elon's stated goals.
• Tesla gets to improve its operating leverage and becomes more profitable.

There's a lot of reasons why this is a kooky theory (bad blood between the two companies, Tesla stubbornness, Apple stubbornness, Apple's lack of distribution channels, etc). And, I'm inclined to believe it really is a kooky theory.

However, if you were Apple and looking for a partner to build your cars, why would you choose to partner with Hyundai or any other legacy manufacturer?

Wouldn't you look to the automotive company whose CEO is saying loud and proud that "the factory is the product"?

Tim might very well offer to buy one of those products...



postscript: I'm pretty sure this idea has been hashed out long ago on this board, though I can't recall when -- it just came back to my mind because of recent chatter about Apple and my own Kremlinologist approach to Elon tweets and actions...

So, then, Tesla is an aggregator of manufacturing is what you're saying?

Note: Aggregation Theory

 

[jhm]

$870 would be a great closing price for a market that doesn't feel quite ready to go all the way to $880 just yet.

 

[Discoducky]

Warning: I'm throwing a bit of an after-hours grenade into this crowd....

I'm in fanciful speculation mode trying to put together a bunch of bits of information over the past few weeks and I'm arriving at the following conclusion:

I will not be surprised if Apple pays for and engages Tesla to build it a car factory (which Tesla would run as a contract manufacturer). I will also not be surprised if this is announced sooner rather than later.

Why?

• If Apple really does want to build and sell a car, this solves Apple's manufacturing problem without really threatening Tesla's core competency of building factories that build energy products.
• It leverages what Apple is good at -- design and marketing -- with its enormous piles of cash.
• It expands demand for EVs further and accelerates the transition to EVs -- both within Tesla's and Elon's stated goals.
• Tesla gets to improve its operating leverage and becomes more profitable.

There's a lot of reasons why this is a kooky theory (bad blood between the two companies, Tesla stubbornness, Apple stubbornness, Apple's lack of distribution channels, etc). And, I'm inclined to believe it really is a kooky theory.

However, if you were Apple and looking for a partner to build your cars, why would you choose to partner with Hyundai or any other legacy manufacturer?

Wouldn't you look to the automotive company whose CEO is saying loud and proud that "the factory is the product"?

Tim might very well offer to buy one of those products...



postscript: I'm pretty sure this idea has been hashed out long ago on this board, though I can't recall when -- it just came back to my mind because of recent chatter about Apple and my own Kremlinologist approach to Elon tweets and actions...

I'd be super surprised if this happens soon or ever. I don't think Elon would be willing to do this with Apple as you could never be sure it would advance the vision.

 

[Zero CO2]

About S/X refesh, 1 bit of anecdotal data: I filled in the tradein form for my Model S just when the production stopped, figuring that waiting until the refresh was official would result in a lower quote. So far no response yet. The previous time I did this I got a quote in a couple of days. I think they’re waiting for the refresh to be public to respond with a lower quote.

Tesla Finance will really lower the quote when you are about to take delivery of your new Model S ...was going to trade my early 2017 MS in November ... quote expired 2 days before my new MS LR+ was at delivery center .. trade in quote reduced by ~$3K ... explanation was market forces ... I cancelled order ... bought more TSLA shares instead .... i like what they did as a stockholder .... as a customer not so much

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Jan 12, 2021: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Soars as Big Tech Struggles"

Traded: $38,769,442,450.12 ($38.77B)
Volume: 45,415,028
VWAP: $853.67

Close: $849.44 / VWAP: 99.47%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $470 (+$30 from Mon)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.919657% (Jan 11)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $805.185B / $715.177B = 112.59%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11th (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $676.39B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $437.08B

Mkt Cap req'd for 7th tranche ($400B) likely achieved on Tue, Dec 29, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 50.7% (50th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 58.5% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.47% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @Krugerrand "It’s as if everyone is new here or simply haven’t learned a single thing"

Comment: "...some pay $30/mth for news; others pay $300K"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

So, GM is up more than TSLA on flying cars?

GM shares hit record high as automaker reveals electric van and delves into flying cars

Gotta give it to Marry Barra, she is trying.

 

[MC3OZ]

Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.

When Elon gets all of these tranches, the next tranches have to be harder:-

• 20 Million cars sold each year.
• 3 TWh of cell production each year.
• 20 Million regulatory approved Robotaxi's.
• 20 Million solar roofs.

Am I making it too easy?

 

[Discoducky]

Omg, I can't stop laughing

https://twitter.com/ElonReplyBot/status/1349165055896649728?s=19

 

[Tyler34]

Omg, I can't stop laughing

https://twitter.com/ElonReplyBot/status/1349165055896649728?s=19

? Explain it to me like I'm 5

 

[Discoducky]

? Explain it to me like I'm 5

Elon liked an Indian dagger. So my take is that he's driving that dagger into the heart of all that is bad in India (as it pertains to the Tesla mission that is)

 

[Tyler34]

Elon liked an Indian dagger. So my take is that he's driving that dagger into the heart of all that is bad in India (as it pertains to the Tesla mission that is)

Oh, I thought he was hinting at s and p inclusion because whiSPer was in the title. Your explanation probably makes more sense

 

[MP3Mike]

I haven't seen any report it yet, so here is the short interest report as of 12/31/2020:

Summary: Since 12/15 short interest went up, by number of shares, 34% to 60,620,873 shares, which is the highest it has been since 8/14/2020. So the shorts have been busy... That makes the run up since 1/1 make more sense if they were starting to cover while benchmark funds also started buying.

If the short interest was still that high that would be ~$51.5 Billion dollars of short interest.