Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

So a positive pre-market, currently at 861$. The big question is if it will be like last week. Pushed up in the morning, before dropping during regular hours on low volume...

I am not a big fan of going up sky high (900+) pre-earnings only to be dropped by 40-80 bucks the next morning. It would be better if we had a positive market reaction to better than expected EPS and S/X refresh. I am sure the main thing analysts will look at in the ER is 2021 delivery goals. 800-850k is probably not going to move the needle (even if the street consensus is a bit lower than that last time i read). If they project 950k-1 million, that could be a big surprise, but I also prefer under promise / over deliver, so I rather they stay conservative. This has served us very well in 2020 when many of us expected way better than 500k, but thank God they only targeted that much and managed to eke it out despite covid.

 

[Tslynk67]

I’ve started lurking on WSB and wow. Shorts are going to be an endangered species.

Indeed, those 'tards sure don't like gay-bears and go pack-hunting for shorted stocks to exterminate shorty. Did you see the epic squeeze in $GME this morning, very nice...

 

[chrsk]

I am not a big fan of going up sky high (900+) pre-earnings only to be dropped by 40-80 bucks the next morning. It would be better if we had a positive market reaction to better than expected EPS and S/X refresh. I am sure the main thing analysts will look at in the ER is 2021 delivery goals. 800-850k is probably not going to move the needle (even if the street consensus is a bit lower than that last time i read). If they project 950k-1 million, that could be a big surprise, but I also prefer under promise / over deliver, so I rather they stay conservative. This has served us very well in 2020 when many of us expected way better than 500k, but thank God they only targeted that much and managed to eke it out despite covid.

Based on what we have seen I think the refresh of model s/x will disappoint the marked. The changes will be to little, and so on.

I also don’t think Tesla will guide for 1 million, but it might be their internal goal.

A really good result might push it up, but in total I’m not surprised if we se a drop in the stock this week.

 

[SilverGrey]

I have been using old.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/real-time to get my daily updates on the share price for TSLA.

But today this page is redirected to www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/real-time

The problem with that is that the browser tab title stopped displaying the share price. A first world problem I'm sure. Anyone else missing this? Are there any workarounds?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Based on what we have seen I think the refresh of model s/x will disappoint the marked. The changes will be to little, and so on.

I also don’t think Tesla will guide for 1 million, but it might be their internal goal.

A really good result might push it up, but in total I’m not surprised if we se a drop in the stock this week.

We have no idea what possible interior changes have been made let alone any powertrain or performance changes. I think it is a little early to speculate as to what the market will have to say about a refresh.

Dan

 

[lklundin]

Based on what we have seen I think the refresh of model s/x will disappoint the marked. The changes will be to little, and so on.

What can realistically be expected from the refreshed Model S/X, if they were introduced this week?

We have seen a drone video of two Fremont Gigapresses, of which one certainly was operating. With Model 3 and Y being high-volume models that cannot share any parts from a Gigapress, it seems very unlikely that Tesla at this time has allocated Gigapressed parts for the Model S/X.

Hopefully the refreshed S/X will be on par with Model 3/Y wrt power electronics (incl. charging power) and temperature management (Octovalve, heatpump, ...).

News on the tri-motor (plaid) version would also be welcome.

Announcement of a Model S/X with 4680-cells would be awesome, but I am not very optimistic.

 

[zzziii]

Some comments from Elon about NNs changes

Link: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1353663687505178627

 

[saniflash]

Based on what we have seen I think the refresh of model s/x will disappoint the marked

if you are referring to the photos from Teslarati, the Model S in them was most likely a test mule, i.e. new technology in old body. Standard procedure in the automotive industry. I would not infer anything with regards to the final body from it.

 

[jw934]

I have been using old.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/real-time to get my daily updates on the share price for TSLA.

But today this page is redirected to www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/real-time

The problem with that is that the browser tab title stopped displaying the share price. A first world problem I'm sure. Anyone else missing this? Are there any workarounds?

CNBC is my go to for displaying the real time Tesl share price, even when the browser is minimized in Windows

 

[Nocturnal]

Totally agree. I often ask how much of my success investing in TSLA was luck vs. skill/acumen. Of course, I want to believe it was the latter but it's hard to say how much. The point of The Big Short by Michael Lewis was that some of the people who hit it big by shorting the market in 2007-8 did so as a result of a confluence of circumstances and quirky personality traits and not necessarily pure smarts. One way I examine this question is I look at the other stocks I invested in or would have invested in if Tesla hadn't existed. I would have done well but not nearly as well. For those curious, in addition to TSLA, I invested in APPL, CMG, and NVDA and would have invested in AMZN. After a decent gain I actually sold these and bought even more TSLA. Today, instead of an overall 14x, I would have made 4x.

I attribute most of our success to being firm in our convictions. For various reasons (climate change, Elon, personal experience with the cars etc.) we decided this was a good place to invest money and held on, despite voices from the outside or inside. Plenty of smart people saw the potential in Tesla and sold or never bought.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Indeed, those 'tards sure don't like gay-bears and go pack-hunting for shorted stocks to exterminate shorty. Did you see the epic squeeze in $GME this morning, very nice...

What's happening right now in GME (up 50% on Friday, up 43% now in premarket and at one point up 100% this morning) at first sight does not seem related to TSLA. It's a battle between Wallstreetbetters and hedge funds which are short GME, with the last ones being crushed. But this short squeeze may affect TSLA, as some of those funds are likely also short TSLA. If they lose billions on GME they may be forced to close their TSLA short positions too. It might even make shorting in general less popular, after the pain caused by TSLA's rise and now GME's rise.

 

[Phobi]

You could be management material

Ni-ko...

 

[Tslynk67]

What's happening right now in GME (up 50% on Friday, up 43% now in premarket and at one point up 100% this morning) does not seem related to TSLA. It's a battle between Wallstreetbetters and hedge funds which are short GME, with the last ones being crushed. But this short squeeze may affect TSLA, as some of those funds are likely also short TSLA. If they lose billions on GME they may be forced to close their TSLA short positions too. It might even make shorting in general less popular, after the pain caused by TSLA's rise and now GME's rise.

$GME was above $121 earlier in pre-market I believe Citron are one of the main shooters and as of Friday there were only 2000 shares available to short ("float" was well above 100% of available shares)

I know there's skepticism that retail moves the market, but WSB has 2million members now, so... who knows, the ringleaders might be hedge-funds, masquerading as autists, harnessing all those RH accounts for their own purposes.

 

[Huskyf]

I have been using old.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/real-time to get my daily updates on the share price for TSLA.

But today this page is redirected to www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/real-time

The problem with that is that the browser tab title stopped displaying the share price. A first world problem I'm sure. Anyone else missing this? Are there any workarounds?

Not like the new cnbc.com stock graphs verry upset with this new design and you ?

 

[Drezil]

Spoiler: OT GME

$GME was above $121 earlier in pre-market I believe Citron are one of the main shooters and as of Friday there were only 2000 shares available to short ("float" was well above 100% of available shares)

In my chart it peaked at $136.60 at 4:39

Highest call on CBOE is 115 which could yield another gamma-squeeze on friday.

 

[2daMoon]

Oct '19 (q3) earnings ignited this historic run we are still riding.

I thought the S&P inclusion announcement was primarily responsible for this run, though, granted, the Q3 earnings may have played a part in S&P making the announcement.

Edit: confused reference of Q3 19 with Q3 20

Agreed, the Q3 19 appears to be a catalyst against a very tightly wound spring. No significant spring this time. Maybe Q4 20 earnings call will change the Earnings Influence trend since Q3 19 and initiate further upward motion as well.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

What's happening right now in GME (up 50% on Friday, up 43% now in premarket and at one point up 100% this morning) does not seem related to TSLA. It's a battle between Wallstreetbetters and hedge funds which are short GME, with the last ones being crushed. But this short squeeze may affect TSLA, as some of those funds are likely also short TSLA. If they lose billions on GME they may be forced to close their TSLA short positions too. It might even make shorting in general less popular, after the pain caused by TSLA's rise and now GME's rise.

It's very loosely related in that it seems to be doing what happened at VW which many here was talking about could happen to Tesla a year (?) or so back. The difference being that unlike Tesla it really does seem like VW in that there are more shares shorted than exists.

Also, unlike VW I'm not sure there will be anyone willing to bail the shorts out. I really hope some firm will loose everything over this.

As someone else said. This will throttle the shorting business in the future. First mention of a company on reddit and every short will bail.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I know there's skepticism that retail moves the market, but WSB has 2million members now, so...

Yeah. Their second favorite BB (Blackberry) is up 34% premarket, and they don't even have a short problem.

It's very clear that organized, and I say that in the looooosest way possible, retail investors can move companies in the low billions of valuation.

Think about it. If only 25% of those 2 million people put in $1000 each, and many do much more. That's $500 million. If a $2 billion company have a 50% float that's gonna be disruptive for sure.

 

[jerry33]

I had no idea Ford still owed money! Ford's $6B government loan debt haunts company as cash supply shrinks

F seems to be running more emotional ads on TV, first responder trucks and we are American kind of stuff. I get it. Without delving into their financials, I consider the ads a sign of the toilet bowl swirling. I think they will survive for a while, mainly as a big diesel company, perhaps post bankwuptcy.

IIRC, they had 27 years to pay it off. Most likely they won't last the entire 27 years and it will be the taxpayers who lose.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Okay, I listened to it. The whole thing. Pretty useless in my opinion. Dave seems to be desperately searching for some kind of magic that determines who gets rich on TSLA and who doesn't. But it isn't there to be found in individuals or anecdotes. He keeps asking: schooling? job? life experience? I'm surprised he didn't ask whether the guy's sex life was a factor. And, of course, Jason basically said he went with his gut and just knew Tesla had to succeed because the product was awesome. Just like many of the people here, past and present. And some get lucky and get rich, and some don't. And the fields of destitution are littered with those who were impressed by great products and put everything they had into businesses that went bust.

Jason's a guy who got excited about Tesla and put everything into it. He got unlucky in that it didn't go up when it should have, but was pretty much flat for years. He got lucky in that he stuck it out and was there for the 2020 boom in TSLA. He especially got lucky that the great product was being made by what's turning out to be a great business. There's really nothing to be learned from that. There are no doubt dozens of Jasons just at Google who did more or less the same thing and made little or nothing or lost their shirts. If Dave keeps at his search for a few decades, he'll discover it's all survivorship bias. That is if he interviews the other guys, the ones who lost, and discovers they give the same answers.

Me, I've lost a ton of money on TSLA over the years. And I've made a ton of money. Right now, things are very positive. But a year ago, things were very negative. I don't think I'm any different now, nor did I change anything significant about how I was betting on TSLA, nor is Tesla particularly different. All that's really different is that Tesla's last decade of hard work is turning it into an overnight success.

If Dave wants to find magic, he should seek out the people who got into TSLA last January or April. They're the ones who got the most bang for the buck out of Tesla's overnight success. And then he should watch for when they get out. Because there's absolutely no doubt from listening to Jason, that if TSLA goes down the tubes he'll go down with it.

Edit: I should note that I always find Dave's podcasts to be a waste of my time. He's clearly talking to a different audience. I most recently listened to him interview Rob Maurer and it was useless compared to any of Rob's podcasts.

Even Rob Mauer didn’t have a Tesla at the time he purchased his TSLA stock. Owning a Tesla is not a commons denominator. What made me shift toward buying TSLA and a Tesla was reading Ashlee Vance book on Musk and understanding he was the most well round up engineer of our current time. If you want to risk it all, as well risk it all on the best CEO engineer alive with the most compelling products. Trying to find anything similar between Teslanaires is a waste of time. Thanks for watching and summarizing it