Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Khamul]

So, Ray4Tesla tweeted a report that Giga Shanghai is right now cranking out 700 Ys per day.

Does this seem likely?

If true it is an amazingly fast ramp up.

It could be possible, based on a few thoughts;

Y and 3 do share a high percentage of common architecture; The experienced 3 employees walk over to the Y factory and get to work immediately. Plug and play.

Each casting eliminates 300 robots, so the time that if would have taken to calibrate 300 robots is gone.

Does the Shanghai Y use 2 castings? for front and rear, if so that eliminates 600 robots.



there is quite a bit of confusion in the article, so it could be 700/day is the eventual output,
some are also asking if this is per line, or per shift, in which case it could multiplied by 3 if it is just one shift.

I guess one way to know for sure would be to watch 100 car carriers loading up every day with just Model Y



MIC MY UPDATE: Chinese media PC Auto reports Giga Shanghai currently makes 700 Model Ys per day.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1357563757010952195
View attachment 634259

I saw someone on reddit say that the journalist misunderstood, and that an Y every two minutes 24-7 was the goal, but that currently they only had one shift working on the Y.

 

[2daMoon]

Not what I said nor the discussion.

Actually, he got what it was I was saying correct, where I believe that you misunderstood.

@Pezpunk's interpretation was aligned with the discussion as I saw it.

FWIW, I'll take the blame for not writing the post that started all of this better in the first place.

 

[qphan79]

There's a China recall story that came out but I can't see how it can be the basis for any outsized crash next week. This massive put volume suggests someone is expecting something in that neighborhood.

this all happened in the very last hour of trading today. All of the put prices went up by about 300%, very strange!!

 

[Curt Renz]

There's a China recall story that came out but I can't see how it can be the basis for any outsized crash next week. This massive put volume suggests someone is expecting something in that neighborhood.

The recall in China is essentially a smaller scale version of the one announced earlier this week in the US. It's for 2013-18 Models S&X experiencing problems with computer screens. Hence the shrug by the stock market.

 

[c041v]

I guess those $1700 Calls aren't paying out today...

 

[printf42]

this all happened in the very last hour of trading today. All of the put prices went up by about 300%, very strange!!

What is the strike price you are looking at?

Seems near the money puts were not moving much, but ones <$5 got a bump.
Someone expecting black swans over the weekend? Or simply buying those to free up margin?

 

[Krugerrand]

Actually, he got what it was I was saying correct, where I believe that you misunderstood.

@Pezpunk's interpretation was aligned with the discussion as I saw it.

FWIW, I'll take the blame for not writing the post that started all of this better in the first place.

May be what you said, but not at all what I was saying. As it were, I took it private with you.

 

[dl003]

What is the strike price you are looking at?

Seems near the money puts were not moving much, but ones <$5 got a bump.
Someone expecting black swans over the weekend? Or simply buying those to free up margin?

It's all over. Reports on Twitter saying that 700-720 strikes 2/12 were the main drivers. I don't mean to cry wolf but I've literally never seen this. Normally it's the calls that get pushed up before an event. I would be extremely pissed if someone was trading on insider information.

 

[zach_]

It's all over. Reports on Twitter saying that 700-720 strikes 2/12 were the main drivers. I don't mean to cry wolf but I've literally never seen this. Normally it's the calls that get pushed up before an event. I would be extremely pissed if someone was trading on insider information.

Links to more info on twitter?

Yeah this seems kind of odd right? OTM calls fell quite substantially as well (though I can't speak to whether that occured in the last hour, or just some point during the day)

 

[MountainRatMat]

My plan is to quit my job before the market crashes, sell part of the shares to get rid of margin and money to live off for a year. If there is a market crash, I have the margin available to me and will use half of that to buy shares. The remainder of the margin I can live off for quite some time. When the market recovers, I rinse and repeat.

While I may lose in absolute amounts, I think I will sleep better and are less exposed than someone who has to sell stock cheaply to make ends meet. The above is also possible without the crash gamble. So, you live of margin when the stock is down and sell when it is high. If the stock stays low, you wasted some money on interest. However, the risk of a margin call is very low.

One key thing I've learned in investing is: You can always do better

Chasing perfection is a fools game.

A plan is a beautiful thing especially when it works out to be lucrative as was originally planned.

 

[kengchang]

My next week 500 Put went up 5x too

 

[JusRelax]

Links to more info on twitter?

Yeah this seems kind of odd right? OTM calls fell quite substantially as well (though I can't speak to whether that occured in the last hour, or just some point during the day)

This seemed to happen quite a bit earlier in the day for OTM calls. Or, at least, for 1000 Mar 2023 calls, which I have been watching.

 

[dl003]

Links to more info on twitter?

Yeah this seems kind of odd right? OTM calls fell quite substantially as well (though I can't speak to whether that occured in the last hour, or just some point during the day)

https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1357801076469035008
https://twitter.com/quant_data/status/1357798699821318147
https://twitter.com/MC_OptionTrades/status/1357774479431241728

 

[wipster]

this all happened in the very last hour of trading today. All of the put prices went up by about 300%, very strange!!

These are just the early model S display issues for vehicles sold in China, doesn't affect any new production.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

It's all over. Reports on Twitter saying that 700-720 strikes 2/12 were the main drivers. I don't mean to cry wolf but I've literally never seen this. Normally it's the calls that get pushed up before an event. I would be extremely pissed if someone was trading on insider information.

Calls are down, puts up. Lots of strikes/dates through March.

 

[woodisgood]

Well if these puts end up being highly profitable (i.e. reflect insider knowledge), then I suppose the rest of us can be ready to buy a dip.

Personally I’ll be looking to load 2023 LEAPs.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Just gonna leave this one here from earlier this week…

 

[EL0NTRK]

Not arguing with you. Most asset-based LOC loans forbid margin buying anyway (at least mine does).

Houston based here as well and we are seriously looking into a SBLOC for a dream home that our income certainly won't qualify for a traditional mortgage based on the usual income/debt ratio.
I hold my TSLA with Vanguard so I wonder if you can recommend some broker/lender that can offer this loan?
I'm also looking for a mortgage broker that can offer a mortgage that we can use our stocks as collateral.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Shut my computer off.

I like to use my going to Vegas analogy..."I am not losing money...I am simply depositing it to withdraw at a later date"

 

[printf42]

Glancing through TSLAQ over Twitter, seems they don’t have any idea about the puts neither.
But found this one:
Some large call transactions before the put sweep.

Spoiler