Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dancing Lemur]

If there is a way to do this that still makes paying $10K up front the "better long-term deal" (per Elon), sure enough.

I doubt it’ll remain $10k when FSD is widely released. I think y’all should be using something like $12-15k in the denominator of your breakeven analysis.

 

[MC3OZ]

Really? Tesla drivers, that would pay for FSD, are killing hundreds of thousands of people every year? Wow, I had no idea.

Sure if you could flip a switch and enable FSD on every existing car in the world you might be able to save that many lives, but having it just on Teslas isn't going to do that. (And it isn't like you can just share the software with other cars/companies.)

We also need to keep in mind active safety features work when FSD is not engaged.
Those active safety features also save lives...

The fastest way to save lives is, build and sell more Teslas, maximizing income builds factories faster.

 

[Robertj]

FSD update , Elon tweet , my highlight

Tesla Owners Of Silicon Valley
@teslaownersSV
·
Feb 24, 2021
Replying to @elonmusk and @cleantechnica
#FSDBeta is amazing. No point to ever fear it any idea when next update coming

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
We’re upgrading all NNs to surround video, using subnets on focal areas (vs equal compute on all uncropped pixels) & many other things, so more time needed to write & validate software. Maybe something next week.

This is evolving into solving a big part of physical world AI.
8:41 PM · Feb 24, 2021

 

[buttershrimp]

Over a 6 year period, a 42% premium for subscribing at $200/mo vs. buying up front strikes me as quite reasonable. The whole point is just buy FSD if you plan to own the car a long time. IMO, a breakeven at ~4 years makes sense.

The risk of subscriptions cannibalizing $10K up front vs. generating incremental revenue from additional FSD users is something Tesla is weighing. Methinks the initial monthly fee may be adjusted once the initial response is in.

Buttershrimp predicts $300/monthly versus yearly $3000 with “free” trials to existing owners.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla is going to open a 62 stall Supercharger station in Silicone Beach

https://twitter.com/CathyKichler/status/1366595753125183491?s=20

 

[Mo City]

I doubt it’ll remain $10k when FSD is widely released. I think y’all should be using something like $12-15k in the denominator of your breakeven analysis.

I'll go back to something I said in 2017: If FSD becomes legit, the price will increase to at least $20K. The subscription cost will follow accordingly.

I think some are underestimating how compelling a product level 5 FSD is. This may be hard to imagine now, but eventually the vast majority of car buyers will consider it a "must have".

Here are two statements from Piper Sandler in their massive deep dive on Tesla last month:

If our thesis plays out, Tesla will eventually transform into a software company.

FSD software [revenue] could eventually overwhelm other aspects of Tesla’s P&L.

I agree with them.

 

[Tim S]

IPOD
IPOF
IPOG (pending listing)
IPOH (pending listing)
IPOI (pending listing)

Chamath's SPACs that are still unassigned. I believe.

I have IPOE also.

FYI IPOC became CLOV in January. It has not done well since.

 

[mltv]

It probably all about nothing. Elon just observing Rocketlab SPAC merger. Rocketlab raise money to build medium size rockets like the Falcon 9. Elon has been supporting of Rocketlab.

 

[lafrisbee]

OT
FSD AND the Cybernotatruck....and me. I am "inline" for a cybernotatruck. I wanted to make sure I was as far away from the first year of production as possible BUT I also wanted to place my order in 2019 just so I could say, "I ordered mine back in 2019, the year the video came out, of course I didn't get it till 2023." and if you believe the Cybernotatruck Forum's understanding I am roughly 250,000th in line.
So? I will happily never put my hands on the steering wheel unless I go totally off road (all roads). How cool will/would that be? and it could happen.

 

[Mich]

I just had an idea I really like: what if the FSD subscription doesn't come as 100-200 USD/month but as 0.2-0.4 cent/mile?

This would be a brilliant move as Tesla jumps directly into the Robotaxi revenue model. It would honor FSD buyers. It would make a mix of private owned cars with and without FSD and tesla owned cars in the Tesla Network very smooth.

I really hope FSD subscription doesn't come as xx USD per month but as xx cent per mile.

 

[Cult Member]

OT
FSD AND the Cybernotatruck....and me. I am "inline" for a cybernotatruck. I wanted to make sure I was as far away from the first year of production as possible BUT I also wanted to place my order in 2019 just so I could say, "I ordered mine back in 2019, the year the video came out, of course I didn't get it till 2023." and if you believe the Cybernotatruck Forum's understanding I am roughly 250,000th in line.
So? I will happily never put my hands on the steering wheel unless I go totally off road (all roads). How cool will/would that be? and it could happen.

So you are going to order the steering wheel option? Maybe a Yoke? I'm sure this will generate additional revenue that should be calculated in future price targets.

 

[LYTRIDR]

What I'm curious about is any lock in period.

I can't imagine they're gonna let HW2.x EAP owners get a HW3 swap for 1 month of subscription price- so seems like (for those needing HW upgrade anyway) requiring like a 12 month commitment would make sense.


OTOH maybe there's a small enough # of such folks by this point it's not worth having more than 1 offering and they just eat the cost for whatever the small # who take the cheap HW upgrade without keeping the subscription costs them.

As a HW2.5 EAP owner myself, I have been thinking about this issue. Certainly I would need an upgrade to 3 or maybe even 4 to get FSD, but what about the full-stack EAP features? With development seeming to concentrate on FSD, my smart summon feature and true navigate on autopilot without paying attention don’t seem likely without that same upgrade.

I paid for those features and will be unhappy if they do not keep pace as FSD solves these problems and is rolled out in wide release. I think Tesla will be decide to upgrade nav on autopilot to the latest hardware regardless of FSD purchase and will be happy with the monthly revenue to offset costs to do the swap.

 

[MXWing]

Now let’s hope only down -30% tomorrow!

Noticed that Max Pain hasn’t updated - still at 760? We would think volume would be shifting over to the call side?

Stupid omega Greek messing up everything. It’s the impact on underlying TSLA from changes in the 10YTreasury Yield.

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 641240

Now let’s hope only down -30% tomorrow!

Noticed that Max Pain hasn’t updated - still at 760? We would think volume would be shifting over to the call side?

Holy sugar! You're down 40% ? How did you do that?

 

[hobbes]

Mining for electric car batteries 'hundreds of times' better than petrol car emission cycles - Electrek

Not that I´d be surprised, but sometimes good to have a study ready in discussions with critics.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Noticed that Max Pain hasn’t updated - still at 760? We would think volume would be shifting over to the call side?

Max Pain is only updated once per day at 7:00 am ET, and that number is based on Options OI from the previous day.

Here's my history for this Friday's options expiries: (remember, this MaxPain value is computed from data going back to Fri, Feb 26).

Check again in 7hrs, 15min for the next update (7:00 am ET on Tue). That one will be based on Monday's OI data.

Cheers!

 

[S3XY]

If FSD costs $10K and represents a better value, my guess is the monthly subscription cost has to be more than $200.

$150/month for the first year makes no sense for Tesla IMO (again, if $10K flat represents the best value). It would be better to offer 15 or 30 day trial periods.

Might the release of the FSD subscription price be accompanied by the announcement of an upcoming FSD purchase price increase?

 

[mltv]

Holy sugar! You're down 40% ? How did you do that?

double down on margin at 900

 

[mltv]

Volvo is cutting out dealership Volvo Cars to Go Electric-Only And Shift Sales Online From 2030

 

[S3XY]

Maybe on your part of the planet but the hardcore truck guys I know are in two camps; the ones with a size issue that trick out their trucks are ‘sign me up!’ and the ones who use their trucks for their jobs are ‘I’d buy it if it looked a bit more traditional’.

Here’s the thing, though, I’ll take everyone in that latter group for a ride and sell it to at least half of them in 60 2.9 seconds or less. They’ll get over the look real quick.

FTFY