Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[buttershrimp]

No S/X deliveries is definitely priced in at this point. It's obvious
Macro situation get worse? I'm assuming you're talking inflation cause the actual economy is going to do gangbusters this year and next
They won't give 2021 guidance and it's very clear of that. Was clear on Q1 earnings they won't.
They have a 50% cushion with Bitcoin before they'll even see 1 penny of a loss on it.

Chip situation affecting Tesla? Sure that's a genuine concern of the ones listed.

I really hope you are right about the S/X because I just see the sales being super bad until they get the new battery in the S and X. The prospect of a super fast charging 550 mile LR model S and a 500 mile model X is too real and close at hand for sales to look good. I can smell the FUD already as Porsche and Audi to try to say they are outselling Tesla with their E-wrong and Taycan’t.

 

[StealthP3D]

I personally have a sinking feeling on mediocre Q1 production numbers. They will still be great when you look back, but I'm expecting under 170k and the market to pile on FUD about missing 50% growth.

Why would the numbers be "great" looking back but look mediocre in the present?

That makes no sense to me.

Also, every credible analyst that covers the auto industry knows it's a predictably very seasonal business regardless of the maker. Q4 is predictably the strongest quarter of the year and Q1 the weakest. That's why it's standard practice to make comparisons with the year ago quarter.

The reaction of the share price to your assumed performance cannot be guessed without knowing the share price right before the numbers are announced. That's a huge variable you are completely over-looking with your broad predictions.

Even if we knew the shareprice going into the P&D report, it would be a crapshoot guessing how the market will react. But trying to guess the markets reaction without knowing if we are sitting at $875 or $575 when the numbers are released is just plain nonsensical.

 

[phantasms]

No S/X deliveries in Q1 is definitely priced in at this point. It's obvious
Macro situation get worse? I'm assuming you're talking inflation cause the actual economy is going to do gangbusters this year and next
They won't give 2021 guidance and it's very clear of that. They made that clear on Q1 earnings
They have a 50% cushion with Bitcoin before they'll even see 1 penny of a loss on it.

Chip situation affecting Tesla? Sure that's a genuine concern of the ones listed.

Again, I said perfect storm. Mr. Market doesn’t care what anyone thinks is priced in and the macros could tank for any number of reasons. I’m not saying these things will happen. I’m saying they could happen.


And to be clear anyone who wants more TSLA shares should buy more now and not wait.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I really hope you are right about the S/X because I just see the sales being super bad until they get the new battery in the S and X. The prospect of a super fast charging 550 mile LR model S and a 500 mile model X is too real and close at hand for sales to look good. I can smell the FUD already as Porsche and Audi to try to say they are outselling Tesla with their E-wrong and Taycan’t.

So one......S/X don't mean that much to overall sales, at least not enough to crash they stock even if they didn't sell hardly any until Q3 when Plaid + ships.

Second......They'll definitely get plenty of people to buy the LR versions of the S and X along with a few Plaid consumers that don't want to spend the additional 20k. The Plaid + X is going to be like 145k. I think your estimation of the number of people buyers in the 134-144k price range is grossly overexaggerated. The vast majority of buyers are going to be for the LR versions.

Also........so you're essentially saying Elon flat out lied in his tweet when he said they are going to start a 2nd shift in Q2 to handle all the demand?

 

[buttershrimp]

I realize your opinion is unpopular here but I’m not sure I disagree. I have all the TSLA shares I could ever need. I’m not greedy and my future is more than secured. My cost basis is nearly zero due to selling and buying the COVID dip. I’ve been tempted to buy more but, even though it’s a deal now long term, I’m kinda like eh at these levels. To the point, I do think after Q1 there’s the potential for a bigger dip due to outrageous stupidity if a couple other items line up a perfect storm. If so, I’ll use all my firepower there. After Q1 we’ll get FSD subscriptions, FSD rollout later in the year, Berlin, Austin, “Model 2”, then in 2022, when 4680s are rolling out hard, we’ll see the S curve get really interesting. TSLA to Pluto!

In summary, when the stock is so hurt than even I am questioning my TSLA ownership, that’s when I’ll buy. I hope it doesn’t happen but if it does...game on.

Your post makes me realize how entirely late I am to the TSLA invest game. I’ve managed to largely avoid buying and selling stock throughout the first part of my adult life. But COVID made me really bored and I had no idea how exhilarating and fascinating Investing could be.

I’ve learned more on this thread and from @Papafox in 2 months simply by being curious and willing to make large enough purchase decisions to make me feel the danger. And because I don’t believe in other companies much, I’m willing to keep at it until I learn how to dance.

Case and point, I read an article a few weeks ago on seeking alpha about protecting my TSLA with options, and I thought.... “wow one day I’ll be able to do that without sucking,”

anyway, if you’ll excuse me, I have some dollar cost averaging calculations to do to see when my “learning experience” will recoup my lost profit. See you Warren buffets on the other side!

 

[henchman24]

Why would the numbers be "great" looking back but look mediocre in the present?

That makes no sense to me.

Also, every credible analyst that covers the auto industry knows it's a predictably very seasonal business regardless of the maker. Q4 is predictably the strongest quarter of the year and Q1 the weakest. That's why it's standard practice to make comparisons with the year ago quarter.

The reaction of the share price to your assumed performance cannot be guessed without knowing the share price right before the numbers are announced. That's a huge variable you are completely over-looking with your broad predictions.

Even if we knew the shareprice going into the P&D report, it would be a crapshoot guessing how the market will react. But trying to guess the markets reaction without knowing if we are sitting at $875 or $575 when the numbers are released is just plain nonsensical.

Tesla has more lines and refined production since Q1 last year. Not having significant growth from Q1 2020 would be a massive miss.

Of course they are going to analyze based on last year in comparison. They are going to project on having Shanghai ramped. Y production going there. Y production ramped in Freemont. Frankly only 50% growth from last Q1 would be a massive disappointment despite it being a huge growth. Expectations have been reset and can sometimes be unreasonable. Just look back at Q4 earnings for that. A great report, but expectations were to blow it out of the water.

Yeah it is broad and share price could vary a lot to change how it hits. But I wouldn’t at all say a disappointing deliveries is priced in. Even at 575 the markets can react poorly to news.

 

[capster]

Yeah... I didn't say it was rational or that I thought that. Just that the market is setting up to react like that and really hit the stock with the FUD. Less production/deliveries than Q4! 170k paces under 700k for the year! Imagine when the chip shortage hits Tesla, under 600k for the year! No demand!

Just watch if Tesla is under 170k, they are going to get massacred. Doesn't matter to my longer-term perspective, but a short term hammering of the stock would surely happen.

I realize your opinion is unpopular here but I’m not sure I disagree. I have all the TSLA shares I could ever need. I’m not greedy and my future is more than secured. My cost basis is nearly zero due to selling and buying the COVID dip. I’ve been tempted to buy more but, even though it’s a deal now long term, I’m kinda like eh at these levels. To the point, I do think after Q1 there’s the potential for a bigger dip due to outrageous stupidity if a couple other items line up a perfect storm. If so, I’ll use all my firepower there. After Q1 we’ll get FSD subscriptions, FSD rollout later in the year, Berlin, Austin, “Model 2”, then in 2022, when 4680s are rolling out hard, we’ll see the S curve get really interesting. TSLA to Pluto!

In summary, when the stock is so hurt than even I am questioning my TSLA ownership, that’s when I’ll buy. I hope it doesn’t happen but if it does...game on.

Don’t misapprehend. This isn’t about popularity or unpopularity.

My post was about confidence. If this henchman is so cocksure of his assertion, he should personally bet at it and in a big way. Otherwise he comes across like a knave from the financial press or worse.

Surely, he wouldn’t want to be perceived that way.

 

[buttershrimp]

So one......S/X don't mean that much to overall sales, at least not enough to crash they stock even if they didn't sell hardly any until Q3 when Plaid + ships.

Second......They'll definitely get plenty of people to buy the LR versions of the S and X along with a few Plaid consumers that don't want to spend the additional 20k. The Plaid + X is going to be like 145k. I think your estimation of the number of people buyers in the 134-144k price range is grossly overexaggerated. The vast majority of buyers are going to be for the LR versions.

Also........so you're essentially saying Elon flat out lied in his tweet when he said they are going to start a 2nd shift in Q2 to handle all the demand?

No I’m saying that it seems logical that they are probably going to release a long range non Plaid version of the model x and S with new battery at year end. If I didn’t have an order for the Plaid+ In the mix, and I was wanting to buy a model x or s for normal non crazy person use, I’d be waiting for a 200 mile boost in range before purchasing!

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm not sure I'm buying the argument that $1,400 checks are going to have a material impact on TSLA SP. How many of these checks are estimated to be sent out? Most anyone is buying with these is 1-2 shares. Will that really make a difference?

I agree. Not enough of that money will be invested into TSLA to make a difference. That said, the intention of the money is to lubricate the economy. That's what could have a positive impact on TSLA. It's the perception of the strength and resilience of the economy, by investors, that matters.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No I’m saying that it seems logical that they are probably going to release a long range non Plaid version of the model x and S with new battery at year end. If I didn’t have an order for the Plaid+ In the mix, and I was wanting to buy a model x or s for normal non crazy person use, I’d be waiting for a 200 mile boost in range before purchasing!

Man you have some insane unrealistic expectations. I'd put money on LR will NOT have the new batteries until sometime in 2022. The 4680 cells are going to Plaid + , Semi, and MIB Model Y at the end of this year. Like there's lot of evidence of this. Semi alone will probably eat up a ton of supply and then by the time mid 2022 comes around the Cybertruck will start eating up cell supply of the 4680's. The LR S/X are going to be way down the priority list for updates.

I'd put even more money on the fact that when the LR S/X do get updated with the 4680 cells, they're going to adjust the pack size to keep the range in the low to mid 400's. The Plaid might get updated to 500 miles.

Tesla's goals for the new batteries is less about range and more about production and costs.

Also, let's keep in mind the average consumer knows absolutely nothing about what cells are in their car. Their buy is based off of the stated range and the other features of the car.

 

[Mengy]

Edmunds is dumb

https://twitter.com/edmunds/status/1366789384226238465?s=20

One feature about the ID4 I really like is that retractable sunshade under the roof glass. That's a slick feature. The rest of the car is nicely designed but I'd still choose a MY over it in a heartbeat.

 

[MC3OZ]

Again, I said perfect storm. Mr. Market doesn’t care what anyone thinks is priced in and the macros could tank for any number of reasons. I’m not saying these things will happen. I’m saying they could happen.


And to be clear anyone who wants more TSLA shares should buy more now and not wait.

Mr Market is prone to changing his mind frequently, and is wrong more often than he is right.
And when he is right, it is usually for the wrong reasons...

 

[kengchang]

No I’m saying that it seems logical that they are probably going to release a long range non Plaid version of the model x and S with new battery at year end. If I didn’t have an order for the Plaid+ In the mix, and I was wanting to buy a model x or s for normal non crazy person use, I’d be waiting for a 200 mile boost in range before purchasing!

Tesla still hasn't tossed away 18650 line from Japan even with the 2170 ramp. Not going to happen

 

[AudubonB]

I’ve never been one to day trade, but I feel really stupid not doing so with all this volatility.

From the "Trade it like you're dead" Mod: please tell me where on the below graph you would get back in, after retroactively having been smart enough to get out when the volatility started up. And.....WHY would you get back there, and how are you smart enough to pick that point?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah... I didn't say it was rational or that I thought that. Just that the market is setting up to react like that and really hit the stock with the FUD. Less production/deliveries than Q4! 170k paces under 700k for the year! Imagine when the chip shortage hits Tesla, under 600k for the year! No demand!

Just watch if Tesla is under 170k, they are going to get massacred. Doesn't matter to my longer-term perspective, but a short term hammering of the stock would surely happen.

Haven’t used this for a while.

 

[henchman24]

Don’t misapprehend. This isn’t about popularity or unpopularity.

My post was about confidence. If this henchman is so cocksure of his assertion, he should personally bet at it and in a big way. Otherwise he comes across like a knave from the financial press or worse.

Surely, he wouldn’t want to be perceived that way.

Kind of a dickish post to be honest. If you don’t think tslaq will attack at even the slightest thing or that certain entities are willing to entertain fud on nonsensical things... you haven’t been paying attention. I’ll keep buying tsla and I’ll keep buying leaps. If it dips further in April, I’ll buy more. My time horizon is 5+ years, I don’t mind dips. But any sorts of disappointing news will be jumped on and jumped on hard. Any excuse right now is looked at as a reason to drop the stock. Mildly ‘disappointing’ earnings caused a drop. Bitcoin buys caused a drop. Interest rates caused the whole market to drop. The last few weeks is a market looking for a reason. Add into that dedicated tslaq... there could be a drop that is just waiting for a reason. To think there isn’t a risk of dropping on disappointing news seems misguided to me. I wouldn’t bet on it, but at this point... it wouldn’t at all suprise me.

 

[Off Shore]

Actually, they are grateful to Volkswagen for being a sponsor, while Tesla refuses to advertise.

Exactly! And given the product they're pushing, as long as Tesla is production-constrained, I say go for it! More BEVs, 100% Master Plan.

 

[PeterJA]

They forgot few other VW advantages:

better supercharging
100% FSD
Bigger Frunk
6/5 safety ratings
They bribe good

The Edmunds claim that ID.4 is "noticeably more comfortable" (while showing the front seats) is especially suspect to me after hearing Sandy Munro gush about Tesla's "phenomenal" seats. Both reviews are unscientific (sample size = 1), but this article doubles the Tesla sample size:
Someone Agrees With Me On Tesla Seats! Sandy Munro!

Also, to make @GOVA's joke totally clear, the ID.4 has no frunk.

 

[capster]

Kind of a dickish post to be honest. If you don’t think tslaq will attack at even the slightest thing or that certain entities are willing to entertain fud on nonsensical things... you haven’t been paying attention. I’ll keep buying tsla and I’ll keep buying leaps. If it dips further in April, I’ll buy more. My time horizon is 5+ years, I don’t mind dips. But any sorts of disappointing news will be jumped on and jumped on hard. Any excuse right now is looked at as a reason to drop the stock. Mildly ‘disappointing’ earnings caused a drop. Bitcoin buys caused a drop. Interest rates caused the whole market to drop. The last few weeks is a market looking for a reason. Add into that dedicated tslaq... there could be a drop that is just waiting for a reason. To think there isn’t a risk of dropping on disappointing news seems misguided to me. I wouldn’t bet on it, but at this point... it wouldn’t at all suprise me.

While a further drop would hardly surprise any of us, that is a far cry from the ‘surely’ in your original post. Though true too, I feel your fears are overblown just like those of the "sky is falling" posts late last fall.

One of the things I’ve noticed, since I have been paying attention for some time, is that there is a correlation between FUD and SP dips. It’s just not causal in the way you say.

To the extent there is a causal connection, it’s the other way: The shorts position themselves and in so doing "drop the stock," then or in tandem trot out the usual suspects to spew FUD.

The goal of course is to get folks all mopey and to nudge them to sell their shares, or at least wait till, say, April to buy more.

Not that I take issue with everything you say: Holding for 5+ years is an excellent plan!

 

[henchman24]

While a further drop would hardly surprise any of us, that is a far cry from the ‘surely’ in your original post. Though true too, I feel your fears are overblown just like those of the "sky is falling" posts late last fall.

One of the things I’ve noticed, since I have been paying attention for some time, is that there is a correlation between FUD and SP dips. It’s just not causal in the way you say.

To the extent there is a causal connection, it’s the other way: The shorts position themselves and in so doing "drop the stock," then or in tandem trot out the usual suspects to spew FUD.

The goal of course is to get folks all mopey and to nudge them to sell their shares, or at least wait till, say, April to buy more.

Not that I take issue with everything you say: Holding for 5+ years is an excellent plan!

Getting awfully accusatory there with that April drop nonsense... we can have posts here without that.

we just disagree with how disappointing production/delivery numbers would impact the stock. I hope I’m wrong and actually I hope they deliver 180+K and the stock soars. My statement isn’t unfounded with how the market is reacting and how the non casual connection exists. (I agree it isn’t casual)