TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
  1. TMC is currently READ ONLY.
    Click here for more info.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. ZeApelido

    ZeApelido Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2016
    Messages:
    2,641
    Location:
    The Peninsula, CA
    • Funny x 12
    • Informative x 1
  2. Singuy

    Singuy Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2018
    Messages:
    3,247
    Location:
    US
    LOL.

    Reasons why

    VW ID.4 > Tesla Model 3/Y -
    More comfortable - Okay to each their own
    Unobtrusive infotainment - because it has a smaller screen?
    Great looking interior - subjective but sure
    Enough range for almost every need -lower range than a Tesla so it's a positive

    Hey Edmunds I'll give you some freebies you can use.

    1. Forces you to be adventurous while you are finding a charging station
    2. More comfortable acceleration
    3. Less likely to cause you to cheat on your wife
     
    • Funny x 29
    • Love x 2
    • Like x 1
  3. Knightshade

    Knightshade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2017
    Messages:
    11,085
    Location:
    NC

    So it's a bit weirder than that... the actual FSD chip is absolutely made in Texas-


    https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tesla_(car_company)/fsd_chip

    But then the chips go to China (Shanghai specifically) to be assembled, by Quanta, into the full FSD computers with all the other parts.

    Then shipped BACK to the US to CA to go into cars.


    We know this because Tesla filed for an exemption to the imported-from-china tariffs they'd otherwise have to pay when they bring the completed units back into the country, and mentioned this exact thing- citing that most of the "value" of the part is the Texas-made chip inside the Chinese-assembled unit.


    Source:
    Trump’s tariffs could knock Tesla’s Autopilot off course – TechCrunch
     
    • Informative x 16
  4. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2018
    Messages:
    2,757
    Location:
    Houston/Galveston
    I wonder, really, how much a review like that costs?
     
    • Funny x 14
    • Like x 5
    • Informative x 1
    • Love x 1
  5. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    4,172
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Though I haven't worked in a fab, I did work for a company that runs several fabs. The fabs run 24 hours a day - I assume that is true of any fab that makes chips. My understanding (but I could be wrong) is that these run 24 hours a day for two reasons. The obvious one is that the equipment in the factory is so bloody expensive that letting it sit idle for 8 or 16 hours a day may well be the difference between profitability and bankruptcy. At minimum the equipment is amazingly expensive.

    The other reason and more germane here - I think that there are any number of process steps that are effectively continuous flow processes. Continuous flow production isn't happy about stopping.

    Clean rooms are also hard to maintain in that state. What I remember reading years back is that the air in the clean room is fully exchanged every minute or two. "dust" in the air gets sucked out of the room fast. My guess is that losing the air flow to the room by itself will cause a delay in starting back up.


    Dear lord I surely hope not! :eek:

    The sorts of complex chips that we're talking about here have either 3 or 4 manufacturers remaining in the world. That is the fruit of decades of consolidation as each new technology node is so much more expensive than the last, that fewer and fewer companies had the necessary volume to make their manufacturing facility economic. So expensive that the volume needed to keep the factory running full time is only available at those few companies in the world. And I fully expect that number to shrink in the next few years as the newer nodes keep getting more expensive (the economics make it inevitable).

    Those companies are Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). The 4th that I just don't know enough about is Global Foundries (AMD's former manufacturing facilities). Samsung and TSMC have the volume to be competitive and profitable due to their foundry work - they build other people's chip designs (such as Tesla's chip design). Samsung makes their own designs as well as other companies. TSMC is pure foundry.

    Intel is the only remaining vertically integrated design and semiconductor manufacturing shop in the world (which is what Tesla would become as their own chip manufacturer). At the processor level Intel is doing hundreds of millions of units per year - Tesla is going to need a whole lot more demand / volume (I think 2 orders of magnitude, and possible a 3rd) to make their own chip manufacturing economic. Which also assumes that the chips Tesla needs are equally valuable as Intel's chips - some of Tesla's will be worth more, but many won't. That'll further drive the need for more volume. But hey if you've got the volume then there is a lot of value in vertical integration (co-optimize the design and manufacturing technology).


    What Tesla can do (and any other design shop in the world) is pony up more money to their manufacturing partner - make sure they have a priority on wafer starts just by spending more for them.


    My disclaimer: I used to work for Intel. These are my opinions, beliefs and understandings; don't put any of these on Intel.
     
    • Informative x 36
    • Like x 5
    • Helpful x 2
    • Love x 1
  6. 22522

    22522 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2016
    Messages:
    1,632
    Location:
    Texas
    People sometimes think they see things that other's don't see, when in fact other's do see them, but are responding differently.

    I think the price of Tesla is depressed not because people don't see Berlin or Austin or FSD, but because they put a lower probability of these items making a difference.

    I see 92% probability of all three with relevant timing.

    They see 32% probability of all three with relevant timing.

    They are not blind or dumb, they are just skeptical because they have spent their lives in dysfunctional systems.
     
    • Like x 6
    • Informative x 4
    • Helpful x 1
    • Love x 1
  7. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2012
    Messages:
    6,308
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    There's about 960M shares of TSLA, and now ~680M of them are in the hands of people unlikely to sell, probably more like 720M by now. That's still a lot of shares "available", but not a ton. Then we have to take into account short interest, and the HODLing nature of the remaining retail shareholders.

    As we've seen this year, newish retail investors just buy shares to get in. They don't consider price anywhere near as much as an average TMCer might. That can move the SP quite a bit when no one is really interested in selling.

    We see 24M shares traded on a day like to day and feel like that's a lot. Almost all of those were masturbatory back and forth trades by algos and hedge funds trying to maneuver or shove the price up/down. Not a lot of shares truly change hands on days like today. Then Kyle from Omaha and his 1M buddies show up looking for 1-10 shares all in the same week.

    I'm of the opinion 1-3M shares of TSLA truly being acquired, without major regard for price, can move SP far more than we might believe. Certainly it snaps back a lot of downward pressure from various entities shorting.
     
    • Helpful x 9
    • Informative x 3
    • Like x 2
    • Funny x 1
  8. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    6,251
    Location:
    USA
    • Like x 21
    • Helpful x 2
    • Informative x 1
  9. MTL_HABS1909

    MTL_HABS1909 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2016
    Messages:
    908
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada
    All good points and obviously would result in shut downs, sometimes several weeks, but not 2.5 months. Anyway I won’t comment further on this.
     
    • Like x 2
  10. kengchang

    kengchang Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    Messages:
    2,140
    Location:
    California
    I think AP board has been shifted to Taiwan for PCB assembly due to the tariff.
     
    • Informative x 3
    • Helpful x 1
  11. GOVA

    GOVA Mr Gumble

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    308
    Location:
    yes
    • Funny x 2
  12. capster

    capster Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2018
    Messages:
    812
    Location:
    An island planet
    #246792 capster, Mar 2, 2021 at 4:47 PM
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2021 at 4:59 PM
    Why don’t you go bet your house and a kidney on that? Don’t forget to get back to us on that bet, ‘kay?
     
    • Funny x 2
  13. oldTAVguy

    oldTAVguy Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2019
    Messages:
    463
    Location:
    Texas
    Let VW advertise their electric, some will try and buy, some will try and then go try a Tesla. They will then go WTF, why would I buy a VW.
     
    • Like x 4
    • Funny x 2
  14. GOVA

    GOVA Mr Gumble

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    308
    Location:
    yes
    • Funny x 13
  15. phantasms

    phantasms Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2019
    Messages:
    1,315
    Location:
    Cross River, NY
    I realize your opinion is unpopular here but I’m not sure I disagree. I have all the TSLA shares I could ever need. I’m not greedy and my future is more than secured. My cost basis is nearly zero due to selling and buying the COVID dip. I’ve been tempted to buy more but, even though it’s a deal now long term, I’m kinda like eh at these levels. To the point, I do think after Q1 there’s the potential for a bigger dip due to outrageous stupidity if a couple other items line up a perfect storm. If so, I’ll use all my firepower there. After Q1 we’ll get FSD subscriptions, FSD rollout later in the year, Berlin, Austin, “Model 2”, then in 2022, when 4680s are rolling out hard, we’ll see the S curve get really interesting. TSLA to Pluto!

    In summary, when the stock is so hurt than even I am questioning my TSLA ownership, that’s when I’ll buy. I hope it doesn’t happen but if it does...game on.
     
    • Like x 7
    • Helpful x 3
    • Love x 1
  16. tschmidty

    tschmidty Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2019
    Messages:
    145
    Location:
    Charlotte, NC
    What items in this perfect storm would cause a dip greater than last year's covid dip?

    EDIT: not being sarcastic or anything, genuinely curious.
     
  17. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2018
    Messages:
    8,566
    Location:
    Maple Falls, WA
    My reactions through the day:

    :cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:
     
    • Love x 6
    • Funny x 3
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
  18. MC3OZ

    MC3OZ Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2019
    Messages:
    2,018
    Location:
    QLD Australia
    IMO something that might change things eventually would be if changes like the wiring harness needed a lot more chips per car.
    Even if that was true, these would be low end chips, so perhaps they would be easy to source.

    Another possible driver is Tesla Energy, if solar and battery home installations needed a lot of chips or Tesla had some sort of next generation home lighting, HVAC, and power system that needed a lot of chips. Again even if this was true, these would be lower end chips.

    We can look back to Autonomy Day and Battery Day and see that important things where suppliers can't deliver the solution Tesla wants, or the volume Tesla wants, get taken in house. So it isn't just price, more a matter of quality and availability.
     
    • Informative x 1
  19. phantasms

    phantasms Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2019
    Messages:
    1,315
    Location:
    Cross River, NY
    Terrible S/X rollout.
    Actual chip issues.
    Macro situation continues to gets worse.
    Still no 2021 guidance given.
    ....and maybe Bitcoin tanks.

    All these are short term issues of course which are zero issues to most of us but could give an opportunity. I’m happy if it happens I’m happy if it doesn’t.

    EDIT: Absolutely not expecting it to get to Covid dip levels! If it does I’m selling my homes!
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
  20. StarFoxisDown!

    StarFoxisDown! Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2019
    Messages:
    2,146
    Location:
    Seattle
    No S/X deliveries in Q1 is definitely priced in at this point. It's obvious
    Macro situation get worse? I'm assuming you're talking inflation cause the actual economy is going to do gangbusters this year and next
    They won't give 2021 guidance and it's very clear of that. They made that clear on Q1 earnings
    They have a 50% cushion with Bitcoin before they'll even see 1 penny of a loss on it.

    Chip situation affecting Tesla? Sure that's a genuine concern of the ones listed.
     
    • Like x 1

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC