Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stars aligned]

Punks may know better or not but still I say we will see much lower lows before it gets better.

Cheers!

 

[buttershrimp]

Indeed, this isn't particularly tough right now, not for the long-term investors. Of course if your cost-basis is above $800 then YMMV

I'm good, I'm at least in the safe 790s now

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Punks may know better or not but still I say we will see much lower lows before it gets better.

Cheers!

Thanks for repeating that several times today. Much appreciated.

 

[hobbes]

Good News via @avoigt :

During the Meeting of the Brandenburg Committee for Infrastructure and Regional Planning today it was stated that the production start of Giga Berlin is confirmed for the end of July latest August

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372636562240995330

Alex, did you listen live? Is there a recording or transcript of the meeting available?

 

[woodisgood]

Me too, just now. Is this the one with new telemetry functions for their insurance system (and to help evaluate their next tier of Beta Testers, my guess)?

The advertised purpose is cold-weather improvements but I believe you are correct that 4.12 includes that.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Thanks for repeating that several times today. Much appreciated.

It’s the fist time I’ve read it
Is that the feeling?

 

[RobStark]

VW Power Day Praised By Wall Street/Media, Tesla Battery Day Was A Flop

Only thing battery Day did (so far) was enable VW to Copy/paste their design/goals and mr Market shunned the original and rewarded the copy paste.

Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)

(+ the Better approach for Tesla going forward might be to go in Stealth mode until ready for production. e.g. Skip AI day, until what you showcase is ready to be delivered within 1-2 quarters)

Tesla closed at $380 the day after battery day.

The market was confused. Now they know a bit more about the implications.

So VW copying Tesla is a good thing. For VW.

For Tesla it confirms the Tesla BEV revolution.

 

[ZeApelido]

Wurst case scenario, 10 year rates bump up all the way to 2%, 2.2% before FED takes action.

I read it as this. Man I must be hungry and have read too much news about VW / Giga Berlin.

 

[buttershrimp]

Folks keep getting their feathers all ruffled over the FUD and misrepresentation of the facts. I really don't see it as a bad thing in the long run.

Consider for a moment how these annoying things may actually be some of the biggest contributors to the SP rise over the long run.

Here's a little perspective to keep in mind:

• Truth always wins out. Most people will know a good thing when they see it. Despite what fictions the media may spout.​

• Production is currently constrained, so, it is better now to have lies affecting sales and SP than to have an inconvenient truth like production capacity getting the headlines, isn't it?​

• Tesla is really just at the Proof of Concept stage right now. Mostly because The Machine That Builds The Machine is the product that matters most, and this part of the story is in the early chapters.​

• Many/most people are already wary of FUD to some degree and will discount claims that appear to be over the top.​

• Those other companies who are getting preference in the market and in the media will now have to step up to the plate and take a swing. Tesla is pitching fast balls. I think we already know the batting average of those players. There won't be any home runs and I seriously doubt they will get a man on base anytime soon.​

• Once battery, and thus vehicle/energy-product production is significantly higher, all of those customers who have been patiently waiting will be able to order and receive Tesla products. Videos will be made, word of mouth testimonials will be shared. With this, FOMO will set in with the media who will find themselves not reporting on a popular swell among their viewers and to some degree will be forced to capitulate in order to remain at least somewhat relevant.​

• Assaulting entrenched opponents like Big Auto and Big Oil will always be more successful when performed with stealth and understated fanfare. It is okay for this all to be played down by their manipulations while they figure out how to adjust, or even survive. At least this way they are not being backed into a corner openly by Tesla, rather, they are backing themselves into corners in the privacy of their boardrooms. Always best not to get too close to a cornered and frightened animal, right?​

• The SP being held now will result in steeper gains in the future as the pressure builds. Upcoming ramps in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin will be like a volcano erupting with flows of batteries, vehicles, and other products increasing multi-fold over a relatively short period of time.​

• The sole fact to keep in mind is how all of Tesla's (and SpaceX/BoringCo/Neuralink/etc.) products will do the job better, will cost less, will be more reliable, and will continue to pay dividends to the planet through reduced carbon, reduced cost of energy, and in the long run will result in a higher standard of living for every person on the planet.​

With this in mind, there will be some backlash, some gnashing of the teeth, some spitting and fussing as the entrenched and archaic power brokers of yesteryear come to terms with the fact that there has been a paradigm shift and their time in the sun has run its course.

Damn son, that's some Sun Tzu stuff right there. You are dangerous my friend. I like it. It makes my decisions look super smart.... hope you are right cause I'm drinking this kool aid all day!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Punks may know better or not but still I say we will see much lower lows before it gets better.

Cheers!

Another one waiting to get in... Best of luck to you.

 

[Christine69420]

Just got an update 4.12 installing now....I assume this doesn’t add the button.

It did not for me yesterday. But maybe it has a hidden button that can be displayed at some future date.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Now I want a T-shirt with the button.

 

[Nocturnal]

Folks keep getting their feathers all ruffled over the FUD and misrepresentation of the facts. I really don't see it as a bad thing in the long run.

IMO, yes and no. Sure it depresses the stock price in the short run which could be useful. Of course I don't know how anyone interested in Tesla hasn't had ample time to build a position before now. On the other hand, this FUD slows down the entire industry and transition. There is a very real impact to the planet and maybe even our investments when vested interests lie or bend the truth for their own agenda.

Punks may know better or not but still I say we will see much lower lows before it gets better.

Cheers!

People who disagree with you about short term price movements aren't necessarily punks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT,
So we just got 2021.4.12. Is the "Button" coming in version 2021.4.20 then?
(Sorry Mods, it was a vision!)

 

[traxila]

Worst case scenario, 10 year rates bump up all the way to 2%, 2.2% before FED takes action.
So question then becomes how low can Markets, NAS and Tesla go ... headwinds ahead
Need to watch the NAS 100MA once again I guess ..

Worst case scenario?



Come one now, you can do better than that. How about this:

This actually has nothing to do with inflation. This is a secular disengagement from the the USD as the currency reserve of the world. The doomsayers are finally correct and trust in the full faith and credit of the USA has gone the way of the Roman Empire.

Early on, the inflation story provided camouflage to unknowing market participants who hammered the bond market with wave after wave of selling as interest rates decoupled with any reality regarding inflation and spiked into the high teens, totally driven by the relentless bond selling. No one wanted to hold the toxic paper anymore at any price. Trillions more treasuries came to market continuously to pay for the deficits cause by tax cuts, and stimulus and war spending. The equity markets whipsawed and then collapsed in a blink, no spiral down, but a quick cliff dive to five percent their former value. Gold spiked to 30,000 USD pausing there only momentarily and then continued to climb to 100,000 USD. BTC spiked to 750K, before continuing to 2M. Real inflation finally did arrive with a vengeance checking in at a 22% annual clip before spiking to 50% and then 300%. Fixed incomes everywhere were crushed. The people would have taken to the streets but they were all too old to walk that far.

But lo and behold one company stood fast, its BTC treasury holding firm and rising while ever more BTC streamed in as payments for the magical cars that everyone wanted everywhere as the only hedge against the lack of oil to be found as fossil infrastructures everywhere collapsed..... Nah not really.

Don't believe any of that stuff, but it is a lot closer to a worst case scenario than what you presented.

 

[canoemore]

Worst case scenario?



Come one now, you can do better than that. How about this:

This actually has nothing to do with inflation. This is a secular disengagement from the the USD as the currency reserve of the world. The doomsayers are finally correct and trust in the full faith and credit of the USA has gone the way of the Roman Empire.

Early on, the inflation story provided camouflage to unknowing market participants who hammered the bond market with wave after wave of selling as interest rates decoupled with any reality regarding inflation and spiked into the high teens, totally driven by the relentless bond selling. No one wanted to hold the toxic paper anymore at any price. Trillions more treasuries came to market continuously to pay for the deficits cause by tax cuts, and stimulus and war spending. The equity markets whipsawed and then collapsed in a blink, no spiral down, but a quick cliff dive to five percent their former value. Gold spiked to 30,000 USD pausing there only momentarily and then continued to climb to 100,000 USD. BTC spiked to 750K, before continuing to 2M. Real inflation finally did arrive with a vengeance checking in at a 22% annual clip before spiking to 50% and then 300%. Fixed incomes everywhere were crushed. The people would have taken to the streets but they were all too old to walk that far.

But lo and behold one company stood fast, its BTC treasury holding firm and rising while ever more BTC streamed in as payments for the magical cars that everyone wanted everywhere as the only hedge against the lack of oil to be found as fossil infrastructures everywhere collapsed..... Nah not really.

Don't believe any of that stuff, but it is a lot closer to a worst case scenario than what you presented.

I'd watch that movie.

 

[2daMoon]

Too many folks are confusing sausage with consequence. Though, honestly, there may be a correlation between the dark arts of the making of both.

In the case of wurst, the worse case scenario is that there won't be enough beer for the brats.

This is relevant to investing because the making of sausage and investing do share how neither may be a joy to watch while in process.

 

[ZsoZso]

I went over to the neighbors house and looked under their couch cushions...nothing.

So I have to sit this sale out.

Why don't you start a couch cleaning service in the neighbourhood. That way you can collect some money even if the couch is empty

BTW, I did buy some today but again too high at $673. I need to learn to aim my orders lower and/or have more patience

 

[Nocturnal]

Too many folks are confusing sausage with consequence. Though, honestly, there may be a correlation between the dark arts of the making of both.

In the case of wurst, the worse case scenario is that there won't be enough beer for the brats.

This is a very real impact from climate change. Hops in particular are sensitive to climate, nearly as much as grapes. Sure you can make beer with just grain but you won't enjoy it.

I'm a pacifist myself, though I dabble in being a jerk here and there. That said, if beer, coffee, and wine become impossible to source or just cost prohibitive, I will fully support any climate denier being given the Marie Antoinette treatment. I'm not willing to deal with people under forced sobriety.

 

[2daMoon]

This is a very real impact from climate change. Hops in particular are sensitive to climate, nearly as much as grapes. Sure you can make beer with just grain but you won't enjoy it.

I'm a pacifist myself, though I dabble in being a jerk here and there. That said, if beer, coffee, and wine become impossible to source or just cost prohibitive, I will fully support any climate denier being given the Marie Antoinette treatment. I'm not willing to deal with people under forced sobriety.

A sobering report if ever I heard one.