Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[shrspeedblade]

In other news, Jim Chanos was on CNBC this evening where he reiterated that Tesla was still his favorite short position.
/s

 

[Singuy]

Fla? Um... you sure that wasn't a hurricane?

Rain during a hurricane is actually pretty meh. We have a 3pm rain shower every day which is intense and sometimes last less than 30 mins daily. It's just a FL thing.

 

[Nocturnal]

Fla? Um... you sure that wasn't a hurricane?

I've been in rain like that. Visibility reduced to a few feet. Very rare experiences of course so if once a decade my robotaxi pulls over I'll be ok with it.

 

[buttershrimp]

I think you missed the point. You can't see every detail on the road which is the problem with thick rain and us human drivers in thick rain makes plenty of best guesses of what might be happening, piecing together what we can see therefore putting ourselves in a dangerous situation just so we can get to our destination without having to stop. Unless the camera is seeing a spectrum us humans can't, the camera is not better than our eyes. We have way better dynamic range and higher definition than Tesla cameras...but lets say the camera sees exactly at my capabilities, it's still unsafe during thick rain situations because it's unsafe when we humans drive through it.

I wonder if they’ve thought of using LIDAR. Jk
I was surprised to hear about scrapping radar, but I figure to Joe’s point, it’s not just one camera, they never blink or stop paying attention and they don’t get water in their eyes so to speak. If so, let’s add sonar!

 

[Singuy]

16 people passenger transport system supposedly in the works for the boring tunnel from Tesla. (got to watch the video in which the reporter talks about it)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380363276823928834

 

[Maitri982]

I told my cousin to freaking stop monkeying around.
Does anyone seriously doubt Musk and Tesla won’t get FSD up and running soon, and reap the rewards monetarily and for the good of society in lives saved?

My goodness, my cousin is trading stonks and playing pong FFS!!
View attachment 652445

FSD NOT REAL BECAUSE NEURALINK EQIPPED MONKEYS ACTUALLY DRIVING CARS REMOTELY.

 

[ZachF]

The full image:

View attachment 652502

oof

~17x decline since 2008

 

[heltok]

My previous post abour the removal of radar:

Possible removal of radar?

I don't believe Elon will remove radar. I understood that tweet to mean that they're removing radar from the perception stack, but that doesn't mean it won't be used by any other neural nets in the car (or using its output outside of the neural nets). We know from last October Tesla is...

teslamotorsclub.com

I will reword this. I think Radar does bring some extra functionality. But will this functionality make the car have fewer accidents or be able to drive in any situation where the vision only system would not be able to? I am not so sure about this. And this is what actually matters, not if some engineer looking at the data could see a few more cars in front or could estimate the distance to a vehicle 200m away more accurate. No the only things that matter is
1. How safe is the system
2. Where can the system be used

And I think vision only at this point might do 1 and 2 equally well. If you try to think up some scenario where this is not true, and then try to think how vision could get around this(by for example keeping a long distance to the vehicle in front in those situations), I think you will pretty soon exhaust your imagination. And if you still have some example, consider if this scenario happens meanfully often.

And there are more benefits to removing radar besides saving costs, energy consumption etc. You get much less input to the neural network and thus can probably increase network size, train it for longer etc, you get same sensors for all directions(can help the system learn how cars looks from the side from side camera and transfer to front camera) and you remove a failure mode.

It’s a bold move, but I assume that Tesla has enough data to show that when they compare the performance of vision+radar vs pure vision it
1. has very similar accuracy
2. the can or should very likely be able to solve everything needed for FSD using vision only
3. They have some strategy for acheiving a very high reliability using only vision

I wonder if they will also remove sonar?! :-/

 

[Artful Dodger]

4/17/2021 Revised Edition

"Lodger's Ten Rules for Investment Success": (c) 2021 - 3rd Revised Edition

1. Time is your Friend; Emotion is your Enemy (Math is your Ally)
2. Stocks cycle through their Trading Channel in 4-6 wks; Practice Patience
3. Buy Half and Sell Half; There will be more Opportunities
4. Often the Best Action is No Action; Take your Time to get it Right
5. Volatility is not Risk; a Stallion that doesn't buck is called a Gelding
6. Market Makers are NOT your Friends; it's their Game to Rig
7. Don't Overtrade; especially Options
8. Minimize the Croupier's Take; Avoid using Margin
9. Forget the News; They're Paid to Lie (Expect the Lie)
10. Have Realistic Goals; Be Honest with Yourself

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Rain during a hurricane is actually pretty meh. We have a 3pm rain shower every day which is intense and sometimes last less than 30 mins daily. It's just a FL thing.

The worst rain is nothing compared to certain types of sticky snow. I've driven in conditions where I've been on the edge of the seat, desperately peering out with the wipers going full speed and a near constant stream of subzero wiper fluid spraying. There's zero chance an autonomous car can drive in those conditions using cameras. FSD can be a thing 99.9 percent of the time and robotaxi can be a thing in certain geographies, but not all.

 

[Mo City]

I told my cousin to freaking stop monkeying around.
Does anyone seriously doubt Musk and Tesla won’t get FSD up and running soon, and reap the rewards monetarily and for the good of society in lives saved?

My goodness, my cousin is trading stonks and playing pong FFS!!
View attachment 652445

Congrats to your cousin.

Everything you said is all good and well.

But the real question we all have is what is he smoking?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

16 people passenger transport system supposedly in the works for the boring tunnel from Tesla. (got to watch the video in which the reporter talks about it)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380363276823928834

I can't remember when, but recently Elon talked about being cell constrained, but by 2022 they should be fine and increase output of semis. He was asked about a tesla van and said it would make sense to do it once they aren't cell constrained.

I'm hopeful by 2023 a tesla van would be in production and personally think a cyber van would make sense. Tough, rugged, no paint, plenty of seats. A passenger version and a cargo version would make sense to me to take advantage of a growing tunnel system.

 

[goinfraftw]

I'm reading that Gensler, the new head of the SEC, is going to be confirmed on Monday (FINALLY). Can anyone confirm outside of this article?

Don’t Let Them Kill Digital Assets - Bitcoin Market Journal

The LBRY case lends credence to the presumption that some U.S. officials are discouraging innovation within their borders.

www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com

Edit:

Found the link.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/executive_calendar/xcalv.pdf

More: Schwab Expects 'Activist' SEC Under Gensler; Senate Sets Confirmation Vote Date | ThinkAdvisor

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm hopeful by 2023 a tesla van would be in production and personally think a cyber van would make sense. Tough, rugged, no paint, plenty of seats. A passenger version and a cargo version would make sense to me to take advantage of a growing tunnel system.

Robotaxi for Cities and Boring tunnels may look something like this design study (from "Westworld" season 3):

Model 1 / Robotaxi features include:

• LFP Bty pack in floor
• seating for 8
• modular wheel motors w. airless tyres
• air suspension for kneeling entry
• Infotainment system not shown

Cheers!

 

[Mo City]

My previous post abour the removal of radar:

Possible removal of radar?

I don't believe Elon will remove radar. I understood that tweet to mean that they're removing radar from the perception stack, but that doesn't mean it won't be used by any other neural nets in the car (or using its output outside of the neural nets). We know from last October Tesla is...

teslamotorsclub.com

I will reword this. I think Radar does bring some extra functionality. But will this functionality make the car have fewer accidents or be able to drive in any situation where the vision only system would not be able to? I am not so sure about this. And this is what actually matters, not if some engineer looking at the data could see a few more cars in front or could estimate the distance to a vehicle 200m away more accurate. No the only things that matter is
1. How safe is the system
2. Where can the system be used

And I think vision only at this point might do 1 and 2 equally well. If you try to think up some scenario where this is not true, and then try to think how vision could get around this(by for example keeping a long distance to the vehicle in front in those situations), I think you will pretty soon exhaust your imagination. And if you still have some example, consider if this scenario happens meanfully often.

And there are more benefits to removing radar besides saving costs, energy consumption etc. You get much less input to the neural network and thus can probably increase network size, train it for longer etc, you get same sensors for all directions(can help the system learn how cars looks from the side from side camera and transfer to front camera) and you remove a failure mode.

It’s a bold move, but I assume that Tesla has enough data to show that when they compare the performance of vision+radar vs pure vision it
1. has very similar accuracy
2. the can or should very likely be able to solve everything needed for FSD using vision only
3. They have some strategy for acheiving a very high reliability using only vision

I wonder if they will also remove sonar?! :-/

I think it's a no-brainer that removing radar (in some way or another) allows them to improve camera vision performance.

The "addition by subtraction" concept MUST be in play here for this to make any sense.

 

[Tim S]

No, I think that the public will have to wait for World of Concrete in early-mid June.

I'll be there in late June for an event. I'll report back.

 

[AimStellar]

I think it's a no-brainer that removing radar (in some way or another) allows them to improve camera vision performance.

The "addition by subtraction" concept MUST be in play here for this to make any sense.

It's also about efficiency. More hardware, less range.

Ultimately, if you can achieve the same or greater performance via vision (and you absolutely can) without the bloat of radar/lidar then it's a no-brainer.

 

[Curt Renz]

Hi folks,

It was a very quiet trading day today, in spite of being an Options expiry Friday:

• Lowest Intraday SP range since 2021-01-21 (MMs positioned for Max Pain on Wed)
• Lowest FINRA/NASDAQ since 2021-01-21 (mostly MMs + HFTs trading today)
• Lowest Trading dollar value day since 2021-02-18 (Daytraders looking elsewhere)
• Lowest FINRA volume since 2021-03-03 (Retail is already positioned for Earnings)
• Highest Short/FINRA ratio since 2021-03-12 (mainly shortzes as retail traders)

My take on this quiet period is that "the Hall is rented, the Orchester engaged, now it's time for the Diva to take the stage".

Mon, Apr 26, 2021 is the date for earnings. Do you think this messes with Options contracts for the 3rd and 4th Fridays? Lot's of folks were counting on having Q1 results by then.

Cheers!

Thanks for that, but TSLA trading may have been quiet on this Friday due to my absence from TMC.

Sorry, but that was because of my colonoscopy which was long delayed until I got a few weeks past two Covid shots. The procedure went quite well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT: R.I.P. Prince Phillip, April 9th, 2021.

 

[MP3Mike]

Ultimately, if you can achieve the same or greater performance via vision (and you absolutely can) without the bloat of radar/lidar then it's a no-brainer.

Exactly. And I suspect one of the biggest advantages will be that TACC/AP won't get disabled because of snow/ice build up on the front bumper cover. (Which seems to be a problem even with a radar heater.)