Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

Is 1.1 even possible without special tires?
Still - even if it is a bit higher, it is super cool - bragging rights secured!

The cold gas thrusters don’t depend on tires.

 

[M|S|W]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395286896842985479

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Teslas independent accounting auditors have to agree to release that (IIRC) and that Tesla is unlikely to produce GAAP losses in future. unfortunately Tesla aint there yet in terms of removing that possibility, and in fact a key reason for that is Tesla's stupid choice to invest in Bitcoin, which given its volatility could easily sink Teslas GAAP net income in any quarter into the negative.

This is not necessarily true. Elon’s pay package has hit GAAP earnings from about 300-400 million per quarter, sometimes much higher , for about 3-4 quarters now. The remaining 670 million left in his pay package will be spread out amongst many quarters since the rest of it is not related to market cap and is instead based on company execution metrics.

Tesla only has about 1.4 billion in Bitcoin. They did 430 million in GAAP profit even with the 300-400 million Elon pay hit. Also add in the one time 200 million hit from S/X. Tesla also continued to lay off debt so debt interest will be less in Q2. Unless Bitcoin drops to practically nothing over the next 2 quarters, Tesla will still be profitable from here on out. I don’t think auditors would use the reason of “Bitcoin could drop to 0” as a legitimate reason for not allowing the tax allowance.

(I do agree the Bitcoin thing has turned out to make Tesla look stupid in all of this)

 

[RobStark]

California plans to ban the sale of gas and diesel cars and trucks by 2035 (within 14 years), and other states will likely follow. How will auto companies like Ford transition to EVs and still maintain comparable sales of cars and trucks?

California does not plan to ban the use of combustion cars produced before 2035 after 2035..

It will take quite a while to replace the current stock of vehicles.

GM,Ford, and Stellantis will also make BEV trucks that look conventional.

For many years Cybertrucks will be a tiny fraction of the trucks on the road, the definition of abnormal. Not normal.

 

[RobStark]

You have to go to #67 on the list to get a city with less than 300,000 people. and that’s not anywhere close to rural. Face it, it is urban dwellers who buy F150s. Which isn’t surprising since that’s where by far the majority of the population live.

Not it is suburban,exurban, and rural that make a majority of truck sales.

It isn't the number of people in a city that determine urban or suburban/exurban but population density.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395286896842985479

I wonder if this means 4680 production is ahead of schedule - back in October he confirmed that Model S Plaid will use them with the structural pack. (This might have been before the Plaid + was a thing though)

 

[RobStark]

So looks like roughly 10-12k upcharge from the ICE F-150 at both low and high end of the price range (ICE one runs around 28k to a bit over 80k IIRC)... though much of that is "offset" with the tax credits.

The base combustion F-150 has RWD with solid rear axle,steel wheels and no radio. The Lightning is standard AWD with independent rear suspension,alloy wheels and infotainment system.They are just completely different trucks.

Here is a Ford F-150 for sale at $99k.

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/847170371/overview/

 

[Todd Burch]

Ok, I slept on it.
Here are my thoughts on the Lightning and where I think Ford stands compared to Tesla:

Initially I thought they would sell a lot. Traditional look, and F150s are popular. However:

1. When you peel back the marketing spin, the base model for non-commercial customers will be fairly expensive compared to the CT. And this truck might still be a year or more from production, and the price is BEFORE dealer markup. Ford discussed the significantly reduced maintenance, but the dealers, who get much of their profit from maintenance, are going to need to be convinced that this is good for them and that they should push it to customers. Good luck.

2. Chargers: Looks like they will be at Ford dealerships and use “FordPass”? Electrify America/EV-Go support? That won’t be as easy as a Supercharger. Who wants to park at a dealership for an hour and get hounded to buy a new car by a dealer while you charge on your road trip? No thanks. Doubt there will be anything close to 250kW chargers at dealers. I wouldn’t want to road trip in this.

3. No discussion of DC fast charge rate. Why not? I bet this spec will be disappointing.

4. The exterior appearance of the car is highly traditional. I mean, the exterior has almost no innovative qualities. I get that: the F150 is already the best selling truck, so why fix it if it ain’t broken? Normal door handles, no tailgate turning into a ramp, etc. The problem is that the aero on this truck is not going to help with range. Highway range on this thing is going to be abysmal. Tesla was smart to have the sloping rear bed cover, as the negative pressure behind the cab is a huge source of drag. Highway EPA or at least efficiency will massively disappoint. Just wait.

5. Almost no innovative features. Ok, there’s a frunk that loads like a trunk, a lot of outlets, exterior lighting, and V2G. But that's mostly it. Are 21 outlets really that much more useful than 5, or 7? V2G is a nice feature but possibly not helpful enough to sway a lot of buyers.

6. Reports indicate that BlueCruise is just not good at all. Ford even hinted at this because the “We’ll offer over the air updates” came up around the same time as BlueCruise. “BlueCruise is no good now. It will get better sometime in the future.”

7. No air suspension. Compare to a CT which kneels down and has a tailgate that folds down to make a ramp for easy loading. They showed none of that on the Lightning.

8. Huge battery. I highly doubt Ford will make much profit if any on these.

9. No talk of battery production or architecture. Likely because they are many years behind Tesla here.

10. This is an opinion, but the interior—especially the steering wheel and controls—looks very old-school. Maybe that works well enough.

Overall, Ford will probably sell every Lightning dealers are willing to sell and Ford is willing to make. I’m just not sure it will be that many. This truck showed to me how far behind Ford is. Specs are inferior to CT in almost every way.

Farley’s going to need something better than that if he’s going to want to continue to trash-talk Musk.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I wonder if this means 4680 production is ahead of schedule - back in October he confirmed that Model S Plaid will use them with the structural pack. (This might have been before the Plaid + was a thing though)

Let's hope you are right - that would be very good news.

 

[RobStark]

There's a reason Ford went with fully independent suspension on the F-150, for the first time ever, on the Lightning. Because they knew they had to compete, at least somewhat, with Tesla on ride quality. A solid axle wasn't going to cut it. It's archaic.

More likely Ford needed room for the rear motor. As others mentioned there are use cases for solid axles.

BTW In the coming days we will likely hear more about Lightning battery supply.

It may be that they will buy most of the 11.7 GWh annual production from SKI's second Georgia factory. Or there may be a new deal.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Ok, I slept on it.
Here are my thoughts on the Lightning and where I think Ford stands compared to Tesla:

Initially I thought they would sell a lot. Traditional look, and F150s are popular. However:

1. When you peel back the marketing spin, the base model for non-commercial customers will be fairly expensive compared to the CT. And this truck might still be a year or more from production, and the price is BEFORE dealer markup. Ford discussed the significantly reduced maintenance, but the dealers, who get much of their profit from maintenance, are going to need to be convinced that this is good for them and that they should push it to customers. Good luck.

2. Chargers: Looks like they will be at Ford dealerships and use “FordPass”? Electrify America/EV-Go support? That won’t be as easy as a Supercharger. Who wants to park at a dealership for an hour and get hounded to buy a new car by a dealer while you charge on your road trip? No thanks. Doubt there will be anything close to 250kW chargers at dealers. I wouldn’t want to road trip in this.

3. No discussion of DC fast charge rate. Why not? I bet this spec will be disappointing.

4. The exterior appearance of the car is highly traditional. I mean, the exterior has almost no innovative qualities. I get that: the F150 is already the best selling truck, so why fix it if it ain’t broken? Normal door handles, no tailgate turning into a ramp, etc. The problem is that the aero on this truck is not going to help with range. Highway range on this thing is going to be abysmal. Tesla was smart to have the sloping rear bed cover, as the negative pressure behind the cab is a huge source of drag. Highway EPA or at least efficiency will massively disappoint. Just wait.

5. Almost no innovative features. Ok, there’s a frunk that loads like a trunk, a lot of outlets, exterior lighting, and V2G. But that's mostly it. Are 21 outlets really that much more useful than 5, or 7? V2G is a nice feature but possibly not helpful enough to sway a lot of buyers.

6. Reports indicate that BlueCruise is just not good at all. Ford even hinted at this because the “We’ll offer over the air updates” came up around the same time as BlueCruise. “BlueCruise is no good now. It will get better sometime in the future.”

7. No air suspension. Compare to a CT which kneels down and has a tailgate that folds down to make a ramp for easy loading. They showed none of that on the Lightning.

8. Huge battery. I highly doubt Ford will make much profit if any on these.

9. No talk of battery production or architecture. Likely because they are many years behind Tesla here.

10. This is an opinion, but the interior—especially the steering wheel and controls—looks very old-school. Maybe that works well enough.

Overall, Ford will probably sell every Lightning dealers are willing to sell and Ford is willing to make. I’m just not sure it will be that many. This truck showed to me how far behind Ford is. Specs are inferior to CT in almost every way.

Farley’s going to need something better than that if he’s going to want to continue to trash-talk Musk.

Good points.
So good that I am starting to come around to StealthP3D's view that Ford is not serious, and they are playing a political game for either credits, fleet incentives or government rescue-plan - or all of those, in a few years when EV adoption really begins to hurt traditional auto, and especially laggards like Ford.
It might even work: Huge marketing and PR, captured politicians, captured media, customer inertia: All tried-and-true components that may play into Fords hand.

 

[RobStark]

I agree. It looks like they made it narrower than current F-150's to eek out a wee bit more range. It also looks lower to the ground than a 4x4 F-150, partly to disguise that it's narrower and partly to eek out a little more range. I don't think it's my imagination.

Good grief. Ford said all the accessories from the combustion F-150 fit the Lightning. Plug and play.

Same size. Lightning sits almost 1.7" taller to accommodate the battery pack while keeping the same ground clearance.

Lightning will be more aerodynamic because of the sold grille and smooth underside with skid plates.

BTW I expect Ford to sell about as many $40k Lightnings as Tesla has sold $35k Model 3s to date.

BTW II MSRP contains dealer profit. Dealers are independent businesses and can price their vehicles above or below MSRP. Dealers will only discount if they think that is the best price they can get. Dealers will mark up only if customers are willing to pay and think the truck is worth it to get it NOW.

 

[Queeg500]

The absolute best video to pick up anyone in the dumps over the stock price.

Nothing new per se, but really draws things together!

I hadn’t seen any evidence of Model S with a rear casting. Did I miss something? It’s shown at about 10:50.

 

[lascavarian]

I’m reading that Ford pulled a bit of a bait and switch with the pricing for the Lightning - the $40k base model is for commercial customers only (available in 2024)? And the $53k model is the 230mi range version for retail customers?

If accurate, that makes it much less compelling on paper.

Remember 4wd is standard so comparisons are against the $49k for Tesla and F still has the full rebate so the dollars favor F It would seem.

 

[MABMAB]

I was not inspired by my Ford intro video review, the web site review was a bit more informative.
Good that they are starting. They know this is where the market is going.
Site suggested that they lacked confidence or knowledge of what range will be: "Targeted estimated".
Too many fancy names for things, offer nothing to me.
Big plus: Claim of home power back up automatically or manually.

Clayton Christianson Innovators Dilemma ought be required reading for those that want to ponder this marketplace battle.
If you are lazy there are videos.

One must ask themselves if this truck is disruptive?


I think the well known misaligned dealership structure issues will hamper this truck unless there are bugs the dealers have to work on.

I've recently had issues with my blue oval truck, took to the dealership. I met a man that had a fancy van, said his previous van survived more than 300K miles, minimal issues. He liked his new van but said it kept having recalls.

Here is my beef with blue oval:
1. Local owner and service manager do not drive Fords, at least they did not years ago when I was sitting around waiting on service. They drove up in other brand vehicles.
2. I had a problem with my vehicle pulling to the right. My tires were holding pressure well. I took it to the dealership, described the problem, told them I thought it needed an alignment ( no accidents ever, 2005 model, 81K miles, drive very little these days). An appointment was required. I showed up for the appointment, had initially told them I would just be dropping the vehicle off but decided to stay so they could show me what they thought was wrong before making repair decisions. They told me they did not know when they would work on my truck. Argh, why make an appointment? So I went outside, ordered an Uber. Then they come out and offer me a shuttle... Argh again! 2-3 hours later they call me at home, say I need $1900 in work done, "Needing to replace both front upper control arms, lower ball joints, sway bar links", then rotate tires and do an alignment. I say no to the work for now, kind of surprised. I take the car to another mechanic, describe my issues, tell him what blue oval says. As I describe the solution he shakes his head no, no no. He tells me I only have a tire problem.

We switch around the two front tires, the truck then pulls to the left. We rotate front to back, no more problem. $30. 2nd mechanic and another friend of his that stopped in examined all the stuff they said needed to be replaced, NOTHING WAS WRONG, they showed me how it gets tested. Turns out I had dry rot and a broken belt on one of the tires, another $150 fix.

I share this story on popular sites including local blue oval store section for reviews. Several days later someone calls, wants to look at the truck again with the service manager. They want me to bring the truck back to them (I've already learned their disrespect of my time) and they offer me a tank of gas to do so. I tell them they are welcome to come to my house to look at the truck, they do not do this.

Blue Oval dealership leaves bitter taste in my mouth
-poor time management. TSLA service rocks! In/out, times honored, clear communication, Uber offered at check in.
-they tried to rip me off the way youtube video investigate reporters find out with hidden cameras
-they could not properly diagnose what was wrong.

I detested my experience with this dealership and it will reflect poorly on new product models. The ford lightning truck is a non starter. Reasonable people will comparison shop and make reasonable decisions. If cybertruck allows minimal color customization with wraps there is nothing of substance to distinguish the ford. Everything about it is underwhelming.

 

[Todd Burch]

Remember 4wd is standard so comparisons are against the $49k for Tesla and F still has the full rebate so the dollars favor F It would seem.

Ok let’s explore that. Dual motor CT has <4.5s 0-60, so about the same or faster than Lightning’s top spec.

Dual Motor CT has >300mi range vs 230 mi for Lightning. (And I bet that 230 will turn out to be optimistic—highway range will suffer greatly compared to CT.)

Dual motors offer redundancy and more instant independent and controllable torque delivery to front/rear wheels. Lightning is single-motor, right?

Higher towing capacity by at least 3000lbs on the Dual Motor CT.

Autopilot standard (way better than BlueCruise), adaptive air suspension standard (way better than coils, plus kneeling, higher ground clearance, better aero, etc.)

Tesla glass, sledgehammer-proof body, Supercharger...

If you actually consider the specs vs price the CT is a much better deal. The only thing left remaining is how the unique look of the CT will compare to the “traditional” (boring IMO) look of the Lightning.

But as with all things that become successful, at one time they were unique and unconventional.

As that great Apple commercial that sounds like it was written for Elon said, “here’s to the crazy ones...the misfits...”

 

[15Peter20]

I think the sledgehammer- and bullet-proof characteristics of CT are underrated, or regarded as a novelty currently.

These features will dramatically increase residuals on these vehicles, especially when used in off road or construction applications.

A pristine, 100000 mile, 5-year old builder's truck? Never been seen before.

 

[Huskyf]

Not sure why any F-150 truck people would buy this. It's nothing exciting and truck people are not exactly the tree hugger type. With range like that, this is where a charging network is REALLY needed. Looking at the Mach-E charging experience, I don't know why anyone would buy this.

I like the retro antenna for FM radio ?

 

[Todd Burch]

Ford premarket down 0.25% currently. TSLA premarket down just 0.15%. It’s early so time will tell but the market “so far” doesn’t yet see the Lightning as a Tesla killer. (There will be no killing of Tesla or Ford for that matter).

 

[Todd Burch]

I will say that even though Tesla’s reveals aren’t super polished, usually have a rough spot or two, and Elon’s not a great extemporaneous speaker, I greatly prefer their detailed, spec- and fact-driven presentations over the board member/UAW presentations that Ford starts out with .