Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dancing Lemur]

The disparity in the Model Y availability across trim levels got me thinking about how they may be setting up a new Y line under a tent in Fremont using front-end castings from Austin and 4680s to build the LR.

That was my speculation, but then I looked at the estimated delivery dates across all of the models, and it doesn't do anything to support that because they are all pretty far out. Take a look (from the US configurator):

MS:

LR: Sept-Oct​

Plaid: June​

M3:

SR+: 9-13 wks​

LR: 9-13 wks​

Perf: 2-11 wks​

MX:

LR: Jan-Feb​

Plaid: Jan-Feb​

​

MY:

LR: Sept​

Perf: 2-10 wks​

Maybe these are still in the midst of being updated before the event tomorrow, but it looks like end of Q3 is the best you can hope for, apart from 3/Y Performance or MS Plaid. We're in that weird end-of-quarter period where there's not enough time to get a vehicle in the current quarter, and the exports are prioritized at the beginning of the next quarter.

As for my speculation on the Y pilot assembly line with structural pack, I know that's been at least hinted at here, so I thought the delivery dates might be a clue. Probably not, but those availability dates don't seem like those of a demand-constrained company.

My MX Plaid order still says Oct delivery. But it said April for a long time, too. I hope we at least get to see one in action tomorrow.

 

[StealthP3D]

I started wondering what aspects with the new MS are enabling higher margins? Is significant part of higher margins on battery side?

I agree it doesn’t have to be on the battery side, going by MY having higher margins than M3 (and costing pretty much the same as M3?)
Any thoughts?

I'm assuming the Model S has had a major redesign to assemble easier with a shorter assembly line and less steps. We will find out about the battery and other improvements soon. It will almost certainly have improved cooling and thermal management - that was probably the biggest bottleneck to increased performance, probably simplified wiring that's easier to install. Rather than spend too much time thinking about all this stuff, I'm of a mind to just wait and see what Tesla has to say. Expect great things. How the market will react I can't say but it's poised to go on a multi-day or week bull run, maybe without the typical short knockdown.

I don't care too much about the short-term share price but this is the first time in months I've been more bullish than bearish in the short-term. It's still a crapshoot, as always. I liked it better in 2019 when I KNEW the stock was cheap and was going to be out-performing beyond any reasonable doubt. Now the price is such that it's not nearly as certain, even as Tesla continues to prove itself. What I would like to see is a steady, constant rise, like a freight train. What I expect is volatility and chaos. This is Tesla after all. I consider $600 a considerably better than average entry point for those who feel they don't have a large enough long-term position.

 

[StealthP3D]

I believe Pierre and Mayur are both wrong. I am too lazy to reread that transcript, but I’m sure it would’ve absolutely stood out if the new plaid version were cheaper to make than the present model S. I am relatively sure he just said the new model S (not the plaid) was cheaper to produce than the prior model S.

Probably both versions are cheaper to produce. They have re-done the production line.

 

[StealthP3D]

Edit: A weeks notice or something would have been NICE for S owners who wanted to see the event first. But I'm not the pricing guy and don't make the rules. - What you can do however is put in for an X because you have control over that.

I don't know, I like the fact that Tesla gave the people ready to buy it without knowing all the particulars the good deal.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't know, I like the fact that Tesla gave the people ready to buy it without knowing all the particulars the good deal.

Yeah I’m sure some might disagree with me but I don’t really feel a lot of sympathy? Everyone had time to decide if they wanted to buy the Plaid at the pricing it had been at for weeks. And they did everything possible to discourage people on wanting the Plaid + by putting a ridiculously long wait, increasing the price, and then eventually just not letting anyone order it

 

[Maarten]

The biggest problem for Detroit would be the UAW. The German IG Metal union seems to be the best at embracing new technology, but even they are not great. Britain's Unite union seems to be just as bad as the UAW. The rest fall somewhere in between.

The UAW would strike before having stamping jobs erased or having some workers retrain.

They are against any change. Until they figure one or all of the Big 3 might go out of business if they don't change. But that takes massive market share loss and disruptions to the company before they agree change is necessary.

Their goal is not to make the company where their members are working more competitive.
Even if it is for the good of their own members in the long run, because the business will be able to expand and flourish, allowing more and/or better work.
They have their own agenda and they will use their power to negotiate about something that is in their interest while deliberately slowing down talks about another subject, using that as a hostage.
They will choose as the 'another subject' something that a company REALLY needs to change if it wants to survive. Been there.
Unions are political beasts. Elon was very wise giving Tesla workers a cut of the total share.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Haha, less than 13 million shares traded today as of 2pm ET. #coiledspring

Today was the lowest trading volume day in terms of dollars changing hands ($9.87B) since the S&P 500 addition on Dec 18, 200 (today ranked at the 40th percentile in dollars traded).

Today also saw a very low amount of short selling by retail traders (FINRA): just 39.4% of trades marked short (40th percentile)

However today retail also accounted for 52.7% of all NASDAQ trading in TSLA (53 percentile), so large funds and big investment banks also did a light amount of trading today.

EVeryone is holding their breath for Plaid.

Cheers!

 

[MXWing]

EVeryone is holding their breath for Plaid. CPI REPORT

Cheers!

Sorry, had to fix that for you. SPY moved 0.15% today.

Raging inflation -> Raging interest rates -> Raging exit from growth

TSLA still going to be the best ROI game in town but market doesn't care about our opinions.

 

[sonofjorel]

Yeah I’m sure some might disagree with me but I don’t really feel a lot of sympathy? Everyone had time to decide if they wanted to buy the Plaid at the pricing it had been at for weeks. And they did everything possible to discourage people on wanting the Plaid + by putting a ridiculously long wait, increasing the price, and then eventually just not letting anyone order it

I’m not even in the market for a Model S but for some reason I feel like I missed out on getting a good deal on the Plaid.

 

[Mike Smith]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402838355021221891

 

[Mike Smith]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402838564694642689

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402839939864305665

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402842844738502657

 

[UncaNed]

A model 2 announcement would be a disaster, osbourning at it’s finest. How about we let Tesla actually finish building its new model Y factories first in Austin and Berlin before we attempt to take a sledgehammer to the demand for existing products by pre-announcing a significantly cheaper vehicle a couple of years before it would even realistically enter volume production?

I dunno, but you guys better sort this out by morning so they don't make a mistake.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Today was the lowest trading volume day in terms of dollars changing hands ($9.87B) since the S&P 500 addition on Dec 18, 200 (today ranked at the 40th percentile in dollars traded).

Today also saw a very low amount of short selling by retail traders (FINRA): just 39.4% of trades marked short (40th percentile)

However today retail also accounted for 52.7% of all NASDAQ trading in TSLA (53 percentile), so large funds and big investment banks also did a light amount of trading today.

EVeryone is holding their breath for Plaid.

Cheers!

The entire market is waiting on CPI numbers tomorrow morning as well.

 

[Alphacrux]

Yeah I’m sure some might disagree with me but I don’t really feel a lot of sympathy? Everyone had time to decide if they wanted to buy the Plaid at the pricing it had been at for weeks. And they did everything possible to discourage people on wanting the Plaid + by putting a ridiculously long wait, increasing the price, and then eventually just not letting anyone order it

What about folks who had an order in for the plaid+? Were we supposed to cancel our order online and reorder the plaid? I was waiting for the event to find out more details. Haven’t had time to call Tesla to find out.

 

[Jack6591]

Hmmmm...

Investors holding $41 trillion demand action on climate — now

Investors managing more than $41 trillion in assets are loudly calling on world leaders to immediately step up their climate game if they don't want to

keyt.com

 

[S3XY]

You were so cute back then…

They grow up so fast, don't they?

 

[Wicket]

Think about the model 2 with 4680, structural pack, all the other here and there learnings of Tesla, including government subsidies and the intensely elastic demand curve of auto pricing. Imagine a 30k$ car (20k$ after US subsidy) that costs 18k$ to build and sells essentially 5m+/year but more if they can make it. I honestly think no one has really put together what this means aside from Warren Redlich and his 20,000 type price targets. It almost breaks the world. Tesla may even introduce new colors.

add 10 cents/mile and 25k miles/year gross profit for a robotaxi scenario. The models are nuts. I can’t wait to see how this plays out.

 

[Tslynk67]

It is called 'Theta harvesting' and usually works quite well.

Indeed, SP closed $599 on December 3rd last year and my main account now is 12% higher - and that's after a miserable May, should really be 15% if I had made some better choices (roll, roll, roll...)

 

[Wicket]

Indeed, SP closed $599 on December 3rd last year and my main account now is 12% higher - and that's after a miserable May, should really be 15% if I had made some better choices (roll, roll, roll...)

I made a mint predicting 700+ was too high and sold calls against my position but I’ve managed to squander a bit of that trying to be the one rational person with balls shorting meme stocks.

 

[S3XY]

Have you even seen a Japanese Fire Truck !!!

View attachment 671204

Me: I wonder how many clowns fit in that.