Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

The Plaid event is at 7pm *pacific* time, isn't it...

 

[kengchang]

The Plaid event is at 7pm pacific time, isn't it...

Door opens at 7PM, remark starts 830PM

 

[MABMAB]

Speaking of BMW... you're not gonna believe this. I think a BMW just tried to race me today! NOW I'm pumped for the Plaid event! Here's the play by play. I really have no idea what model it was, so maybe not a fair fight - can someone spot the model?

Spoiler: Spoilers!

Maybe they thought I was some heavy SUV, or just testing to see if all that Tesla hype was for reals, IDK. But my Dual LR Model Y with the Performance upgrade has my wife's Model 3 running scared of this beast. I still get excited from driving this, while also being incredibly humbled by the Plaid Specs. (I would pay for a ride just to feel it for two whole seconds - why not make it a Carnival ride, eh?)

At first, I didn't know it was on. This was our second red light and I was not paying attention of my challenger directly to my left. If it was growling at me, I couldn't hear it over my rockin' stereo system - with more speakers than my fingers and toes combined. On Full FSD (emphasising "Full" for some reason), I was more interested in the new Pure Vision behaviors and how the phantom braking from crossing car was completely gone. Smooth as butter now even without the radar.

View attachment 671734

Spoiler: More Spoilers!

So there we lined up. A large pickup truck (Cyber fan perhaps) to my right, and the Bimmer to my left. He doesn't punch it (or at least I couldn't tell really), until this moment when I suddenly realize that some car had just pulled away from me for the first time in like... years. THAT got my attention. It's rare, and I still never punch it right away because of pedestrians or other cross traffic. Maybe this BMW saw that as hesitation or a weakness, who knows what they were thinking. But apparently, we were off!

I'm guessing I was doing about 40 mph when I first noticed; he had a good two car lengths on me already. So my adrenaline kicked in. Was this an actual challenger in this dark sleeper? My reactions were quick cuz it was not looking good for Tesla at this moment with that Truck possibly losing some belief as well.

This was also the exact moment I realized that I might be over my head thinking he might have me at the higher speeds, and I just blew my hole shot which is the funnest part!

View attachment 671736

Spoiler: Spoilers that Retract are Cool

Then next 3 seconds went by pretty quick. I was only up to about 65 (ya sorry it was in a 45 but no other cars, obviously). Next moment I looked, I wasn't sure who I was racing. Or even if it was a race? Maybe the driver was just enjoying their hole shot just as so many of us enjoy. Maybe I was being too proud out there today, and maybe I should at least size up the competition so I don't look like some show-off. (Thinking... processing...)

View attachment 671746
Oh hell no! It was fair and square. Plus they started it whether realizing this or not. Ya don't dance with the wolves if you can't dance with some teeth. They should be more careful of the badges worn. Oh that S Curve is gonna hurt for a while still.

This is Plaid day, and I'm pumped for the excitement and for Mr. Market. I have no sell orders and don't plan on any either. I would even bet a selloff is just as likely this week. Oooo.

Dude, I totally get this. Nobody beats me off the line if I am in the car by myself.

What I notice is that my performance brings out the worst in other people. I'll leave them in the dust, cruised at speed limit plus (dont get a ticket). A minute later they gotta pathetically zoom past me at limit plus 20. I really hope one of them gets pulled over someday.

 

[JRP3]

100%. I stopped using FB a year ago. The people on there are far too stupid and nasty. Twitter is better but TMC is like a drum circle compared to even a good day on Twitter.

Being on the TSLAQ block list means you don't get to see the true insanity.

 

[JRP3]

The way I'm drinking....ain't no way I will be awake for dis plaid reveal.

I expect awesome crib notes in the AM

Weak long, I broke quarantine to drink in public for the first time in over a year for this event

 

[StealthP3D]

But the inflation we are seeing is only transient. Surely it's not here to stay

To be clear, I'm not talking about massive inflation. Even normal inflation of 3-4% can have a surprising effect when compounded over three to five decades (when retiring you have to think ahead). In the same way that the million dollars that might have seemed like a small fortune in 1990, doesn't anymore. And that was only 30 years with below average inflation. This is why you hold!

Inflation is not bad for stocks unless it gets out of hand. In fact, inflation is a major factor driving investors to own stocks instead of less volatile but lower performing investments.

 

[Curt Renz]

Door opens at 7PM, remark starts 830PM

Yikes, that's 10:30 here in the Midwest. Now after enduring a week of late night west coast Cub games comes this.

 

[powertoold]

Door opens at 7PM, remark starts 830PM

You're telling us Tesla tweeted that the livestream starts at 7pm PST, but the event doesn't actually start until 8:30? That's not helpful.

Update:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403109795977125908

 

[Jack6591]

Yikes, that's 10:30 here in the Midwest. Now after enduring a week of late night west coast Cub games comes this.

Curt,
Just to clarify, you are a Dodger’s fan...right?

 

[Thekiwi]

Folks, I am so excited that my sister is finally coming around to buy a Tesla. unfortunately, I cannot buy it since owning a car is hassle in the city I am in. But my sister is finally in the place to buy one. I wanted your opinion about whether we should wait until Tesla production starts?? When would that be?
Also she wants to lease it, whereas I am pushing her to buy instead. Do we have some arguments or some comments about it.
Yaeeee we gonna get a potential customer in my family. So koool

If it’s a model 3, buy it whenever as that model will not be built at the new Berlin factory.
if it’s a model Y, probably will have to wait until Berlin factory opens as Tesla are not shipping them in Germany yet.

 

[scaesare]

Yeah, classic tabbed cells would likely fall under the non-structural design like a 3/Y four module setup unless they can pull enough heat from the bottom to eliminate the ribbon cooling.

Seems like changing older cells to tabbed would be a great intermediate step. Better cooling and lower resistance with potentially more active area. Not sure how easy the manufacturing changes would be on an existing line. Increas in electrode width, remove tab attachment steps, add shingle slicing & folding, add new cap attachment.

That's the "New Big Tab" (aka "tabless") not the "old tab". right?

 

[lafrisbee]

Don't worry, inflation will teach you an important lesson.

I mean, are you going to want a car with full VTOL capabilities or not?

yeah but..if vtol is available from who we think the share price won't be $5k

 

[RobStark]

2021
$4000 - TMC Bulls

 

[Unpilot]

Folks, I am so excited that my sister is finally coming around to buy a Tesla. unfortunately, I cannot buy it since owning a car is hassle in the city I am in. But my sister is finally in the place to buy one. I wanted your opinion about whether we should wait until Tesla production starts?? When would that be?
Also she wants to lease it, whereas I am pushing her to buy instead. Do we have some arguments or some comments about it.
Yaeeee we gonna get a potential customer in my family. So koool

Tell he to buy it ASAP. Every Tesla is awesome...and gets better over time.

No way to stay ahead of the improvement curve as that is the secret Tesla sauce.

Wait and the next version is better...and the next...and the next.

Never stops. Enjoy the ride!

 

[MartinAustin]

In 2016 during the Model 3 reveal, I was literally crying with relief, pride, astonishment and happiness at how unexpectedly cool, amazing (and frankly competitive) it looked and how much Tesla was maturing as a company. (The music that played at that exact moment was part of it... good job by the composer)

In 2019 during the Cybertruck reveal, I felt like I had eaten some bad steak that was about to make me throw up. My girlfriend who I had convinced to watch along with me was all "Oh, no, that thing is horrible!!!" (of course we love it now)

Hoping tonight's event will be somewhere half-way along that spectrum

 

[jerry33]

Folks, I am so excited that my sister is finally coming around to buy a Tesla. unfortunately, I cannot buy it since owning a car is hassle in the city I am in. But my sister is finally in the place to buy one. I wanted your opinion about whether we should wait until Tesla production starts?? When would that be?
Also she wants to lease it, whereas I am pushing her to buy instead. Do we have some arguments or some comments about it.
Yaeeee we gonna get a potential customer in my family. So koool

It depends. Leasing is the way to go if you use your car for business and can write it off because there's never any question about how much the lease costs. For an individual who can't write it off there are some pitfalls that can make leasing much more costly. Examples are: I now drive much further to work and will exceed the lease miles. I lost my job at the end of the lease and no longer have a car. I want to keep the car longer than the lease, but the buyout price is way too high. I'm sure you can think of additional items.

 

[lafrisbee]

The way I'm drinking....ain't no way I will be awake for dis plaid reveal.

I expect awesome crib notes in the AM

from us? the crib notes will be longer than the novel... and about worthless..but did I tell you about the games?

 

[jbcarioca]

I appreciate your posts, and I agree with much of what you write above, but your post fails for the most part to respond to my original post (which you described as “nonsense”.)

My beef isn’t with the concept of the model 2, it’s solely with the timing of an announcement. I am as much in favor of a model 2 as anyone, but a hypothetical announcement right now would be incredibly stupid, which is all I was saying.

I am 100% absolutely in favor of the model 2, as it will massively increase the total addressable market for Tesla vehicles and is the key for Tesla to increase shipments by an order of magnitude larger than today. I really want Tesla to be able to ship it as soon as possible and ramp up production facilities for it and the associated battery supply needed ASAP. But it’s still years away from arriving.

The “Tesla stretch“ is a very real phenomenon with many buyers of even the entry level model 3 spending much more than they normally would for a new car, just so they can get a Tesla. These buyers of current entry level Tesla models (3/Y) is the segment of Tesla sales that would be impacted the most by a model 2 announcement.

When a cheaper line of Teslas become available, it Inevitably takes sales from the previously cheapest entry level Tesla line. It happened to a limited extend with model S/X sales after the model 3 arrived, as those who were buying the entry level S (again, just to get a Tesla, were now perfectly happy to get a 3), and it is logical that those currently buying the entry level 3 are more price sensitive than those that were buying an entry level model s were in 2017, and these people would be much more likely to delay a purchase for 18-24 months and wait for the model 2.

(happy to agree to disagree on this one though)

I would agree with you were we to ignore actual Tesla practice. When Model 3 became available the cheapest versions of Model S were discontinued. The same will happen with Model 2 when the cheapest Model 3 will be discontinued. Margins overall will rise because of that practice. The idea that somehow yields suffer in the process is fallacious. Sales are not lost either since the transition times are fairly long and average buyers are rarely so obsessive as are typical TMC members. The “Tesla stretch” will probably be with us for several years or more.

The announcement timing issue, if that is our point of disagreement, affects primarily obsessive brand enthusiasts, like us. When the Tesla world remains capacity constrained it is unlikely that announcement timing really is a material constraint on sales. Even if it were Tesla coukld just begin selling in a couple new countries, or even distribute a bit more in established markets.
Whatever we think, Tesla remains a limited distribution product line.

 

[Discoducky]

Never seen this before in my Tesla app

 

[amolina]

If it’s a model 3, buy it whenever as that model will not be built at the new Berlin factory.
if it’s a model Y, probably will have to wait until Berlin factory opens as Tesla are not shipping them in Germany yet.

She wants a Model Y and she lives in San Fransisco. So was wondering how long would she have to wait before ordering from Texas? Also is there a way to order specifically from Texas and be in the queue for that?