Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

What serenity? Do you see lots of people on this forum serene as Tsla is red 70% of all trading days? All I see is infighting, battling care bears, fighting FUD, and screaming manipulation.

Its relative though. You have to visit FB and TWTR to appreciate this forum. Ultimately, none of us are bailing or trying to get others to bail.

 

[pitabun]

I was expecting at least a 5% gain today.

Maybe the market isn’t expecting to get blown away!

 

[Nocturnal]

This panache aspect you so flippantly disregard....
How on God's green Earth is the product brand not given the recognition on here that is achieving in the market. People are idiots. Porsche is already selling a car not Tesla's equal for 2x the money based solely on the brand name. And The Ford Mache Mustang is as much a Mustang as I am a ladyboy. But the "Mustang" name separates the car from all other electric cars. And here again it can't even come close to the Model Y. And come on, Audi?
The perception is the reality. BMW will survive if they just get pointed in the right direction.

BMW is toast IMO. Too little too late, and their new EV designs are horrendous. I say that as someone who used to own a 335i and has liked BMW styling for as long as I can remember.

The MachE is close enough to the Y to be a contender. Unfortunately for Ford they probably lose their behind on each one they sell though.

 

[dl003]

Sorry if I'm behind on the latest, but did they change the time of the event? It was supposed to be at 7pm local time, which would be 4am in most of Europe (CET), but the event live counter shows 7 hours 10 minutes to go, which is 8:30pm LA/5:30am Europe.

Nevermind, just found a tweet with the invite details. Remarks start at 8:30pm...

Which means it'll be done by the time PM opens. Elon knows what matters to his followers.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Some of these numbers seem a bit "Warren Redlich" over-eager. A 40 trillion market cap by 2030 just doesn't seem realistic to me. My own modeling predicts between a 3-4 trillion market cap in 2030, more like a $3000 share price, and while I admit I tend to plan on the conservative side it's not THAT conservative!

Anything more than $5K per share by 2030 and I literally won't know what to do with all of my wealth.

Anything more than $5K per share by 2030 and I literally won't know what to do with all of my wealth - Call me...i know a guy

 

[Mengy]

Anything more than $5K per share by 2030 and I literally won't know what to do with all of my wealth - Call me...i know a guy

Hah, I'm sure I'll figure something out! Owning my own island would be kind of cool....

 

[Nocturnal]

Yeah I don't think a 40 trillion market cap is in the cards either, especially by 2040. If I'm wrong I'll get this post tattooed on me.

Its relative though. You have to visit FB and TWTR to appreciate this forum. Ultimately, none of us are bailing or trying to get others to bail.

100%. I stopped using FB a year ago. The people on there are far too stupid and nasty. Twitter is better but TMC is like a drum circle compared to even a good day on Twitter.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

100%. I stopped using FB a year ago. The people on there are far too stupid and nasty. Twitter is better but TMC is like a drum circle compared to even a good day on Twitter.

The FB groups are hilarious....I stopped reading the posts because every red day, the world was coming to an end..."Elon sucks, i'm losing my life savings, thought $TSLA was going to $2,000...blah...blah"

 

[elasalle]

What .. What ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403088796229324809

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403079762898132995

 

[lafrisbee]

I hope he took my daydream post about making games interact with what is going on outside the car.
As the simplest example doing a mileage game where young kids get points for taking photos on a phone or "gun" that is bluetooth connected to the game system... and extra points for certain words they "shoot". The words can be words that have been identified on the road signs. This could become an educational game in the area of Geography as well as learning to read. The words themselves could appear as an image on the phone or game screen before being shot or captured. Tesla's cameras could read the words and images on signs as it travels down the road, or have a game that updates itself from other teslas that have traveled the same road recently, and alert the children to be aware that a certain object of point value is "ahead" or "visible."
Are you confused yet?
A game could also be done whereby the children traveling in two different teslas could earn points by being the first to recognise the other tesla. The children in the cars could reach their point total by their skill of seeing the other one first, and more points would be given to the first child based on how long it took the second child to recognise the tesla/child that already recognised him. While failure to recognise within a certain time would cause the second child to start forfeiting points to the first child.
Games concerning tree identification would be easy.
And lastly a game of hydrology... Everytime a road passes over a bridge the child is asked to choose the name of the lake/stream/creek/river from three choices. And if a flowing body of water to guess the amount of flow that is currently occuring (believe me when I tell you that the flow is more often being monitored so the game could be accurate.) Bonus questions or higher levels could be achieved for answering questions about the body of water. Subjects such as destination, origination, most common species of various families, rare or endangered species.
OH another, are you still reading? the car's camera's could be used to run a simulation where ICE vehicles need to be eliminated, and electric vehicles are fellow X (wing) fighters. With gasoline carriers being motherships, requiring all the tires to be shot off so they will veer of the road and crash...

To further explain my game interest.
I was a teacher. So the time gaming clearly increases a child's intelligence, and will create tendencies. The child would become more aware of their surroundings, learn to understand the size of the world, how it all fits together, as well as not say, "Are we there yet?"

 

[CHGolferJim]

Some of these numbers seem a bit "Warren Redlich" over-eager. A 40 trillion market cap by 2030 just doesn't seem realistic to me. My own modeling predicts between a 3-4 trillion market cap in 2030, more like a $3000 share price, and while I admit I tend to plan on the conservative side it's not THAT conservative!

Anything more than $5K per share by 2030 and I literally won't know what to do with all of my wealth.

Reminder of reasonably credible analyst/investor price targets (please update if I misstated any):

2022
$900 — A.Jonas, MS
$1,000 — Gary Black
$1,000 — D. Ives, Wedbush

2023
$2,500 — Gene Munster

2025
$1,500 — Gary Black
$3,000 — ARKK ($4,000 bull)

2030
$2,000 — Ron Baron
$3,000 — Rob Maurer (moderate progress in FSD)

 

[Curt Renz]

I was expecting at least a 5% gain today.

Maybe the market isn’t expecting to get blown away!

Relative to competitors, it was close to that.

-2.4% F
-2.3% GM
+1.9% TSLA

 

[Cherry Wine]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403084240414298113

 

[Curt Renz]

E&E News - today: Biden kills Trump rule cutting fossil fuel royalty payments

Excerpt:

"Interior is proposing to withdraw an attempt by the previous administration to shortchange American taxpayers for the resources that oil and gas companies extract from public lands," the spokesperson said in a prepared statement.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Reminder of reasonably credible analyst/investor price targets (please update if I misstated any):

2022
$900 — A.Jonas, MS
$1,000 — Gary Black
$1,000 — D. Ives, Wedbush

2023
$2,500 — Gene Munster

2025
$1,500 — Gary Black
$3,000 — ARKK ($4,000 bull)

2030
$2,000 — Ron Baron
$3,000 — Rob Maurer (moderate progress in FSD)

2021
$4000 - TMC Bulls

 

[Unpilot]

OH another, are you still reading?

No.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anything more than $5K per share by 2030 and I literally won't know what to do with all of my wealth.

Don't worry, inflation will teach you an important lesson.

I mean, are you going to want a car with full VTOL capabilities or not?

 

[Zero CO2]

Reminder of reasonably credible analyst/investor price targets (please update if I misstated any):

2022
$900 — A.Jonas, MS
$1,000 — Gary Black
$1,000 — D. Ives, Wedbush

$1200 - Alex Potter Piper Sandler

2023
$2,500 — Gene Munster

2025
$1,500 — Gary Black
$3,000 — ARKK ($4,000 bull)

2030
$2,000 — Ron Baron
$3,000 — Rob Maurer (moderate progress in FSD)

 

[Thekiwi]

There were a few likes for this nonsense, I was saddened to see. I do not wish to be rude, but the linked post was largely wrong.

All over the world buyers choose between various sizes, types and features of vehicles they buy. Some places, like India and China, have most sales of very small cars. Some places, like the US and Canada, trend towards giant pickups and SUVs. Globally people tend to gravitate towards the size and configuration they prefer, with moderate movement from one size to another. There is copious documentation, including relative market sizes for different types in many sources. By subscription there is Mark Lines and Automotive News among others.

The term Osbourning is specific. It refers to a better technology destroying an inferior one. That has exactly zero to do with different size and configuration of vehicles.

For those who think the various size and configurations of Tesla models are mutually exclusive with one driving out another I have a bit of relevant information:
First, Tesla production technology is rapidly developing to allow such things as Gigapresses, robots and factory technology to apply to the entire model line.
Second, Depending on the model somewhere between 10% and 25% of parts are used in common.
Third, battery technology and cell design, chemistry and pack design are being shared among all models, obviously with gradual evolution as new models adopt new approaches that are later applied to other models.
Fourth, almost all corporate structure is saved among all models. That specifically includes software, firmware and everything else donjon a corporate-wide basis.

As the model range broadens all models gain better visibility and efficiencies in distribution and Word of Mouth will be enhanced.

With all that said it is very possible to overdo this synergy end end out doing what is called 'badge engineering' ever popular and self-destructive that is. Thus we have Jeep and Fiat models that are indistinguishable, we once had Chevrolet, Pontiac, Oldsmobile etc and even now have Chevrolet and GMC with almost identical vehicles. All over the world those are common and end out poorly. Tesla does not do that and surely will never do that.

Tesla has produced drivetrains for Mercedes Benz and Toyota models. They very well might do that again, and may even license and/or provide other products and services to other manufacturers. What they will surely never do si badge engineering.

So, in conclusion. Tesla will gradually broaden the automotive and energy product lines. As they do they will expand the market for Tesla products just as has happened with the existing products. Probably the chief reason people misunderstand how positive this all is related to individual buying processes. Individuals will cross-shop between vehicle classes and features. I do too, and already have gone from an S to a 3 and now back to an S. A very few people, like me, actually move upland down the vehicle classes. That confuses observers because they generalize from the specific case they see. In my case I am acutely aware that I am an outlier in nearly everything, so I'll never try to generalize from my own behavior. To do so would be ridiculous.

In nearly all market segments everywhere buyers tend to display quite consistent behavior, generally one of two patterns:
First, in much of the world buyers tend to have first vehicles (i.e. entry level) small and cheap, and change purchasing behavior as their lives progress.
Second, in much of the world urban density makes vehicles purchases tend towards small vehicles, with fairly consistent size preferences over lifetime.
Those two broad groupings have endless permutations...

There are 'pocket rockets'. These are small but some are astoundingly expensive and well equipped. (I have had a few of those). Thinking forward there years or so. The Model 2 Performance will NOT be cheap. 'pocket rockets' tend to have Gross Margins that match the highest spec vehicles. For reference just compare a BMW 1 Series New Zealand price today: The cheapest is NZ$49,900 the top is NZ$88,900. Just try to buy the top one without options, that will not be easy.

When thinking that smaller and cheaper actually go together just think about the previous paragraph. For some promotional purposes the lowest price is used, even though the cheapest model is much less common. Typically the Gross Margin for the 'top of the line' is more than 100% of the bottom, since the bottom often does not actually make money. Why offer the bottom, then? Because the Gross margin is 'fully absorbed'. The low end does make significant scale contribution so allowing the entire line to have more profit.

Tesla has done that from the beginning, so many buyers rush out to buy Performance versions and then purchase add-ons such as Ludicrous (I did that too). Were we to examine Tesla profitability in model specifics we'd find that SR versions and RWD versions probably have very low to negatives Gross Margins. We'd also find that Performance disproportionately buys FSD also, plus expensive colors and interiors. That applies today to Models SX3Y and has done so always.

Model 2 and whatever else comes along will always do that. Why are so many of us, like me, shelling out ridiculous amounts of money for the new Model S Plaid? Will we stop? No, we'll also buy a Model 2 mini-Plaid, as will many people.

Never, ever, apply the term Osbourning to any company that innovates every day! If you still think it might apply I suggest you drive a 2018 Model 3 and then drive a new 2021, perferably back to back, even better make them both Performance. Tesla continuing innovation will make every one fo the expanding product line a promotional device for all Tesla models. Just compare build quality, audio, games, sound levels.

We all should do all we can to help Tesla expand the product line so they'll be able to serve most vehicle markets worldwide. The surface is just barely scratched today.

I appreciate your posts, and I agree with much of what you write above, but your post fails for the most part to respond to my original post (which you described as “nonsense”.)

My beef isn’t with the concept of the model 2, it’s solely with the timing of an announcement. I am as much in favor of a model 2 as anyone, but a hypothetical announcement right now would be incredibly stupid, which is all I was saying.

I am 100% absolutely in favor of the model 2, as it will massively increase the total addressable market for Tesla vehicles and is the key for Tesla to increase shipments by an order of magnitude larger than today. I really want Tesla to be able to ship it as soon as possible and ramp up production facilities for it and the associated battery supply needed ASAP. But it’s still years away from arriving.

The “Tesla stretch“ is a very real phenomenon with many buyers of even the entry level model 3 spending much more than they normally would for a new car, just so they can get a Tesla. These buyers of current entry level Tesla models (3/Y) is the segment of Tesla sales that would be impacted the most by a model 2 announcement.

When a cheaper line of Teslas become available, it Inevitably takes sales from the previously cheapest entry level Tesla line. It happened to a limited extend with model S/X sales after the model 3 arrived, as those who were buying the entry level S (again, just to get a Tesla, were now perfectly happy to get a 3), and it is logical that those currently buying the entry level 3 are more price sensitive than those that were buying an entry level model s were in 2017, and these people would be much more likely to delay a purchase for 18-24 months and wait for the model 2.

(happy to agree to disagree on this one though)

 

[Discoducky]

E&E News - today: Biden kills Trump rule cutting fossil fuel royalty payments

Excerpt:

"Interior is proposing to withdraw an attempt by the previous administration to shortchange American taxpayers for the resources that oil and gas companies extract from public lands," the spokesperson said in a prepared statement.

TL;DR

Autumn Hanna, vice president of budget watchdog group Taxpayers for Common Sense, said she was pleased with Interior's proposal.

"The 2020 valuation rule was a blatant giveaway to the oil and gas industry and would have cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue," she said via email.