Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[friit]

After watching some of the edited highlights of the event on Youtube it's absolutely clear that Tesla knocked it out of the park with Plaid. Some might feel frustrated that everything that's in the pipeline for Tesla didn't burst out all in one go, but it's still all in the pipeline - the innovation, engineering and manufacturing prowess will not slow down.

 

[kanweg]

Where the H did all these whiners come from?
Last night was just as advertised.
I watched the run up on Rob Maurer's channel, he went to a twitters feed that had photos posted. He kept commenting on who he saw, people that I guess folks would consider influencers. Those people saw the car in person, sat in the car. Last night and this morning they were pumping that info out to their followers, now polishing up post production videos.

case in point Gary Black

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403264648015536132

 

[ZachF]

What other mid-large OEM has an answer to the Tesla tri-motor Plaid powertrain?

- Single speed no gearbox
- 0 to 20,000 RPM
- Triple permanent magnet motors
- Torque vectoring
- 0 to 200mph capable
- Deliveries starting TODAY

It's literally checkmate to ICE and every other OEM already. Every other vehicle in this price range has to somehow beat this powertrain. Nobody can say they have a quicker and better performing powertrain for a long time. Unless someone can come out with a cheaper alternative, that alternative will be DOA.

If you want a quick laugh, compare the Plaid S to a comparable ICE car like the Audi RS7.

The Audi even weighs more and has a lower range!

 

[UkNorthampton]

Are you seriously going to say fundamentals trump chart technical when TSLA trades at 600 P/E? Look I'm not trying to be a dick, i'm just trying to be realistic. I'm not too stressed out about the share price because I don't have any calls or leaps. So to be clear, I don't want this to become a I'm a bear, or I should sell my stock or anything. I think what is just annoying me are just overly optimistic people on the forums/ reddit.

We have people on this forum hinting at sandbagging, 4680 already in the model S, "1 more thing " during the event. At what point can we just bring it back a little and stop being constantly wrong? China numbers were good, Q1 was good. Lets get back to some real statistics.

People complaining that the event sucked probably got hyped up by the same people who think Elon is sandbagging. Stop hyping yourselves up only to be disappointed. I think the event was great and I really want to get a model S now. I just got a new car with 4 years left on the lease so 2025 I guess lol. Plaid S or X lets goooo.

Forward p/e is something like 120-130, based on estimated earnings (depends who's estimating of course). In my opinion this will fall fairly rapidly, so some fundamentals support the share price

 

[Queeg500]

No way will we close under Max Pain …

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403299402152919043

 

[jerry33]

Is 0-60 really under 2 seconds? Or is that something that’s going to be valid under certain conditions? Has there been any time to show, or it’s just what we’re going by based on what they tell us it is?

These things are always dependent upon conditions--mainly the road construction, tires, and weather. Also the level of charge in the battery. I notice no one asks questions like this about ICE performance cars whereas electric performance cars appear to be guilty until proven innocent.

 

[Queeg500]

Tesla Owners UK have posted a ton of good stuff from the owners’ manual. Also

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403228699827347458

 

[UkNorthampton]

Gear selector / indicators -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403306139807277060

Presumably original video is on Tesla website (edit: owners manual, above)

 

[Prunesquallor]

…
I am not impressed with the emphasis Tesla has placed on its new flagship vehicle on staggering - but useless - performance numbers. …

I think we can take Elon at his word - that the purpose of this car and its performance is to demonstrate the technological superiority of electric vehicles over internal combustion.

 

[WarpedOne]

demonstrate the technological superiority of electric vehicles over internal combustion.

While simultaniously demonstrating superiority over any other EV - a giant "try harder".

 

[ZachF]

Quick note on the motor power curve from previoys Roadster 2 discussions filtered through my 2 in the morning brain.
The power band graph is instantaneous (or at least short term) power, so thermal limiting shouldn't be in play. Think single launch vs track day.

Horsepower is torque*RPM/5252. Motor RPM generates back EMF voltage which reduces the voltage across the motor windings and thus current. Torque is proportional to current.

Assuming a standard buck (step down) type motor drive, you're limited to pack voltage. The inverter also has a current limit on its output. The pack itself has a power limit.

The first part of the power curve is inverter current limited, as RPM increases, power increases linearly. Then we hit the battery power limit. At some point, the inverter is at 100% and is putting out pack voltage. After that point, as back-EMF continues increasing power rolls off as current drops.

With the trimotor set up, each rear motor only needs to put out half the power versus driving two tires. So they can change the internal construction to reduce the amount of backEMF. This also reduces the torque per Amp, but that needed reduced anyway due to only having half the traction. They can also shift the gearing to make the motor spin faster and reduce the windings further.
End result, the backEMF per RPM value is much lower, so less roll off on the high end.

Looking at the graph:
Note how P100D, performance, and plaid all have the same inital slope, that's either the inverter current limit (in plaid, it's the sum of the three motors) or a software limit due to drivetrain torque limits.

Performance and P100D then hit power limit followed by a backEMF drop.
P85 has a lower max current and peak power due in part to the smaller pack.
The Plaid curve shows a higher max power which indicates pack improvements allowing higher pack current. Then follows a really shallow slope indicating either a very low Volt/RPM figure or possibly, V/RPM is low enough that it never hits voltage saturation of the inverter. In that case this may be loss of power due to the increased number of switching events of shorter duration vs motor inductance which could reduce the effective power output.

View attachment 672059

Excellent post.

I'd like to add that 1 horsepower of electric power is "worth" more than 1hp of ICE power.

For one, going through a transmission causes losses. Total ransmission losses in most ICE cars are on the order of ~15%, with 17% in AWD cars. There is no transmission in Teslas, and the Plaid, having two motors in the rear doesn't even need a differential in the rear now either. I'd bet the Plaid S's transmission losses are probably in the 5% range. Your 590hp Audi RS7 might make ~500hp at the wheels, while your Plaid S will probably make ~970hp at the wheels.

Then there is the curve itself. On an ICE car they are measuring peak power at a specific RPM, and average delivered power while it's accelerating though a gear say from 5600 to 7200 rpm may be a bit less than peak, which may occur at 6800 rpm (just random #s for exmaple)

Then there is the fact that it will be delivering 0hp to the wheels while it is switching gears, something the plaid never has to do.

Then there is the throttle lag on a ICE, compared to the instantaneous throttle of an EV.

All in all, you'd probably need at least 1300hp ICE to equal a Plaid, probably more.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I think Plaid S/X does contain a rear megacasting: look a the transverse aluminum truss member in this photo:

View attachment 672090

This smaller piece (compared to the Model Y rear megacasting) could be produced on the smaller die-casting presses that Tesla used to make the 2-piece rear castings for Model Y from when production began in Jan 2020 until the first IDRA gigapress was installed at Fremont in Fall 2020.

Good use of resources by Tesla, repurposing existing production equipment to produce a superior product in a capital efficient manner. Top marks!

Cheers!

Not just t hat transverse piece, the black painted part to the left of it (and probably, out of sight, to the right) look like they could be cast parts too. So there may be more going on in there, just not necessarily in a single large part like we're used to seeing due to that big honkin' motor taking up all that space.

 

[InDaClub]

Great news, what is the new delivery date?

August.

 

[Wicket]

I think the focus on ultra performance only starts to look bad when it is in the absence of contextually everything else they are doing. It’s a good goal in itself. You don’t want to give the impression it is the only thing they are doing which would look like they ran out of ideas. We’ve just been in kind of a lull without launch of CT, semi, FSD, solar roof ramp, or improvements in 3/Y offer (which hopefully can come with 4680 and iron chem). Hopefully all temporary.

 

[Ipcress]

I think getting a top notch PR firm/presentation would be money well spent for an event like this. Tesla remains the buzz through all generations. There is no harm nor shame in promoting and displaying the excellence that went into and manifests in the car. He is talking like an engineer, and from personal experience, no one wants to hear an engineer talk...

Totally disagree. Talking like an engineer is one of the things I admire about Elon. Look at the popularity of Sandy Munro. Every other car company in the world makes the same, stupid commercials and presentations written by the same bloated, cookie-cutter PR departments and ad men. The last thing Tesla needs is some slick, too perfect, Apple-like presentation either. Over-produced and refined, those have become absolute snoozers. Tweak the technical issues, sure, but leave Elon's rough edges, thank you. He's doing just fine.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I think we can take Elon at his word - that the purpose of this car and its performance is to demonstrate the technological superiority of electric vehicles over internal combustion.

A much smaller customer base for halo ICE, BMW/Merc exec cars, all the way down. Even helps commercial EVs. If CEO, Finance & Sales have EVs, replacing ICE vans & HGVs easier. More workplace chargepoints. Speeds up mission

 

[jerry33]

In a bubble, “range is king”. Why not 600 miles? Why not 1000?

What’s the percentage of time you end up needing to supercharge on a daily basis?

The days you don’t, you paid extra for cells you didn’t use. Being battery constrained, you took cells away from another car that could have been built.

zero sum game.

Last year 90% of my miles driven were trip miles, so 75-80% were SC miles. This year might be slightly less as a percentage, but still the vast majority. In two cases last year there were SC outages (in one the entire town lost electricity so gas cars were in the same fix). Because there are large distances between the SCs (up to 200 miles), skipping is not an option. The idea that no one needs more range than X is fine for areas where SCs are close together (50 miles or less), it's not so fine where SC locations are far apart. And you are still mostly restricted to traveling on Interstates unless you want to go out of your way.

 

[Christine69420]

So I opted to sleep last night - then catched up on this thread with my morning coffee and wondered what kind of disaster happened in Fremont. Busy with retirement stuff I opted to see Steven Mark Ryan's highlights from the Plaid event rather than watch the whole livestream.

It was great!

Elon in a good mood presenting all the reasons why the new Model S Plaid is a great car. People getting a good look at the car and the tech in it - and test drives. I would love to ride along in one of those rear seats!

If people are miffed because Tesla did not reveal anything Roadster / Semi / FSD / VTOL or whatever I'm sure those will get their own day to shine when ready. I'm glad yesterday kept it's Plaid focus.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Owners UK have posted a ton of good stuff from the owners’ manual. Also

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403228699827347458

Here's the manuall for the niew model (including plad). Remove da sp's:

www .tesla. com/sites/default/files/ model_s_owners_manual_north_america_en_us. pdf

 

[jerry33]

I wonder if the waypoints interaction with the crowd irritated Musk and maybe that affected some of the presentation. He has been resistant to adding way points for years. I don't know why. They would have been helpful on many of my trips.

I suspect the resistance to waypoints was/is the limited memory/storage. Ideally there should be enough memory/storage that you wouldn't need an external drive for sentry mode either (at worst you should just need one to copy the sentry mode video if there isn't reliable wireless connectivity).