Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

Possible exception of France, sounds like most of these could be delivered today? I suspect some of the EV lease specialists would pick them up either speculatively or especially if there's a discount

Pretty sure those few noted as available are cars that are actually available to buy now. So unlikely to be sold, have the paperwork cleared and payed for today. The ones sold and ready to be picked up can't be seen in the public system.

 

[Drezil]

Battery capacity is so so limited that I think everyone will sell everything to begin with. Well...VW might not sell the IDs without huge losses. They really serve no purpose. I believe they'll take the losses as they have contracted the battery capacity and have to use it somewhere. The ID platform is based on the MEB which is an ICE multivehicle platform and thus a terrible choice for EVs.

MEB literally stands for modularer Elektroauto Baukasten (modular EV platform) and will be used by all brands of VW (except Porsche) going forward.
They will eat losses like hell, but that is ok, because they learn a lot with it.
And then just add dozens of different tops on their platform for the different brands.


I know ID.3 drivers personally and they are very happy with it. But because of corona noone did a road trip, yet.

 

[NicoV]

De Tijd claims that today the electric semi is finally here: Met de stekker in de pijp
Because Mercedes today announced their eArctros line of vans, while still criticising Tesla for not having released the Semi. Never mind that Mercedes will only start production somewhere later in the year.

 

[Zero CO2]

This new ‘Tesla fighter’ from Mercedes beats out the Model S on two key measures, UBS says

A new luxury-electric-vehicle from Mercedes-Benz, touted as a “Tesla fighter,” beats out the high-end Model S from Tesla on two critical measures based on a...

www.marketwatch.com

" new Tesla Fighter" ... they are retreating from their previous " new Tesla Killer" headlines ... next is "Tesla Observer" then "Tesla Roadkill"

this is just sad

and maybe i missed it but there is no availability date for this vehicle ...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Good morning, Volkswagen.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410210143489466369

 

[scaesare]

GTR got a quarter- to half- second head-start. Good thing we have accurate clocks at drag strips to take human reaction time out of the eqution.

What's more the title of the video actually mentions the GTR getting the hit each time.

I'm not sure if that was deliberate on the part of the Plaid's driver or not, but I suspect that with equal hole-shot times, the GTR would not have pulled ahead that substantially, if at all...

 

[scaesare]

Long time lurker, here.
And this particular, now-you-see-it-now-you-don't from CU irks me. In the linked article the blogger from CU states that cars have lost and regained their Top Pick status before, but, himself, points out that this has happened between model years, when traditional ICE manufacturers make their design changes. Which, as we all know, are not retrospective to the previous model years.
Further: CU is supposed to be a data-driven organization. You'd think that all their screaming about how there'd be no radar in the new model 3's and Y's, they'd at least go out and check to see if the car would do emergency braking and all that. They have the capability of doing this testing - so why didn't they?
Irritating.

Wait, are you The Tron Guy?:

 

[Compton]

Oh. I need this shirt. There's no Tesla merch store in Europe. Can someone buy it for me and mail it to Europe? Pleae pm me ;-)

There is a Tesla shop for several European countries. Search Google for "Tesla shop [country]" where [country] is replaced with the local name for the target country. For instance, "Tesla shop Sverige" returns the link for the Swedish store and "Tesla shop Suomi" returns the link for the Finnish store. If you really can't purchase the item from Tesla directly, I can mail it to you.

 

[StealthP3D]

If driving 600 200 miles plus daily is regular for you then Tesla is definitely your EV.

FTFY

The unveiling and introduction of S3XY hasn't collapsed demand for the rest of the auto industry. Neither the unveiling of Cybertruck.

I agree by 2040 2030 Tesla will have the highest automotive market share in the USA and the world. But it won't be anywhere near 100%. Not everyone has the same priorities and taste as Elon Musk.

FTFY (and no one ever said all auto buyers had good taste). In fact, we have plenty of evidence that roughly half of all auto buyers have terrible taste. For proof of this just look at all the ridiculous cars on the road when better options were sitting on the lot. But Tesla has a number of years to go before they have to cater to that crowd as there are still plenty of people with excellent taste that don't have at least one Tesla sedan in their driveway.

 

[2daMoon]

It looks like we are starting another one of those low volume days.

Please wake me once last weekend is finally over.

 

[stealthyc]

This new ‘Tesla fighter’ from Mercedes beats out the Model S on two key measures, UBS says

A new luxury-electric-vehicle from Mercedes-Benz, touted as a “Tesla fighter,” beats out the high-end Model S from Tesla on two critical measures based on a...

www.marketwatch.com

" new Tesla Fighter" ... they are retreating from their previous " new Tesla Killer" headlines ... next is "Tesla Observer" then "Tesla Roadkill"

this is just sad

and maybe i missed it but there is no availability date for this vehicle ...

Key paragraph:

The UBS analysts noted that the EQS’ commercial success could be so strong that it cannibalizes sales of the S Class, which provides Mercedes, owned by German auto giant Daimler XE: DAI, with better profit margins.

 

[thx1139]

VW will sell over 100k ID.4 this year.

VW might sell over 100k ID.3 this year. It almost certainly will in 2022.

Nissan plans to sell over 100k Ariya in Europe alone next year. Almost certain to do so worldwide.

Ford initially planned install capacity of 80k Lightnings per year. With reservations far exceeding expectations Ford is said to be scrabbling to add capacity. SKI is currently building a 10 GWh battery factory in Georgia to mainly supply Ford. Ford and SKI are expected to finalize a deal this Summer to construct two 30 GWh JV battery factories in the USA.

GM has almost finished building a 30 GWh in Ohio. Is about to break ground on a 2nd in Tennessee and has approved an additional two in a Joint Venture with LG. That is way more battery than Hummer and Cadillac Lyriq can consume. So an electric Silverado pickup with capacity over 100k units per year should be announced by Job1 of the Ford Lightning next Spring..

Really you think so?

From what I can gather from ev sales blog, eu-evs and news reports the ID.4 is not on a pace to hit 100K. Through today in Europe the ID.4 has sold about 16K. Now that only includes June numbers from Norway, Spain and Netherlands. Still looking at those countries after a nice launch the ID.4 has trended down. From media reports ID.4 has sold less then 5000 in China. ID.4 sold 474 in US Q1. What makes you think over the next 6 months it will sell 70Kish. As for the ID.3 it is only for sale in Europe and although available last year as well is only selling slightly more then the ID.4 in Europe (about 17.5K) and not selling anywhere else.

As for Ford and GM with the Lightning and Silverado. Looks like you are talking 2023 for 100K units.
As for Nissan do we even know when it will launch?

Again I just dont see it.

 

[corduroy]

Yea, but which direction?

 

[Krugerrand]

Chevy Bolt is a compliance car still selling in compliance numbers. About 25k units per year in the USA since introduced. Not having $7.5k credit and competing against LEAF/Niro EV/Kona EV with $7.5k credit does more to make GM offer $10k discounts than $40k Model 3 without Fed Credit.

Consultancy Alix Partners recently did a dealership study. It found on average a dealer made $1300 profit on service for every new car sold. Not revenue, profit. You can easily pad $1300 in extra profit on BEVs for dealerships vs ICEv. Dealer resistance is lack of knowledge. Ford dealers seem to be selling Mach-e just fine. Like ICEv compelling EVs get sold crappy ones sit on dealer lots.

Yes the "also rans" will likely sell in those numbers.

Most people want normal interiors. Steering Wheel AND Instrument Cluster. Grab handles, sunglasses holders, volume knobs, leather seats vs superior networks they will rarely if every use. FSD that is perpetually coming soon. Hands free Supercruise and similar will be more than good enough for many.

If driving 600 miles plus daily is regular for you then Tesla is definitely your EV.

The unveiling and introduction of S3XY hasn't collapsed demand for the rest of the auto industry. Neither the unveiling of Cybertruck.

I agree by 2040 Tesla will have the highest automotive market share in the USA and the world. But it won't be anywhere near 100%. Not everyone has the same priorities and taste as Elon Musk. There will be room for others to sell BEVs profitably.

Chevy Bolt was advertised by GM to be a holy grail that was going to beat the pants off Tesla’s Model 3. They even beat Model 3 to market by a whole year and took every opportunity to brag about it.

Now you’re using the compliance car excuse, which btw many here said the Bolt would be but I don’t recall you saying that back then. How convenient for you to use today.

You keep defending these companies, keep telling us how they’re going to thrive in the coming years with their offerings. How they’re building this factory, partnering with that company and yet so far it’s just been a bunch of mouse nuts swinging in the wind.

You’re absolutely right, Tesla won’t have 100% of the market when the dust settles but you’re dead wrong about who’s going to be left standing picking up the scraps.

 

[Tim S]

There is a Tesla shop for several European countries. Search Google for "Tesla shop [country]" where [country] is replaced with the local name for the target country. For instance, "Tesla shop Sverige" returns the link for the Swedish store and "Tesla shop Suomi" returns the link for the Finnish store. If you really can't purchase the item from Tesla directly, I can mail it to you.

@Mich
Der offizielle Tesla-Shop | Tesla Deutschland

 

[traxila]

Window dressing day anyone?

Last day of the quarter….

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Tesla's Delivery Report Is Coming.

Tesla's quarterly delivery report could offer more than usual this quarter.
It will touch on
• The automotive semiconductor shortage
• Tesla's recent woes in China,
• Overall demand for electric vehicles.

The consensus call on Wall Street 201,000 vehicles in the second quarter, but expectations might be creeping upward. Tesla, had a shaky start as It sold about 34,000 vehicles in the country during April and May, according to industry data.

Overall EV sales in China grew strongly during April and May. The company produced more cars than that, but chose to export some vehicles from its Shanghai plant to Europe.

Deliveries could reach that 205,000 to 210,000 range depending on Tesla's performance in China

Even if Tesla only meets the consensus expectation for quarterly deliveries of around 200,000 cars, that would be another quarterly record. In the first quarter, Strong delivery numbers could offer an additional hint that the semiconductor is abating.

For the full year, the average call on the Street has risen from roughly 830,000 to 865,000. while the highest estimates are now above 900,000 units.

More than 200,000 deliveries for this quarter would be a win for investors.

 

[Singuy]

 

[stealthyc]

View attachment 679630

To be slightly fair, it's the cargo version which was originally this (but still uglier than the concept for sure)

 

[st_lopes]

Making sure that we post positive GAAP Earnings excluding all the usual reg credit and BTC noise!

Edit: The hat is for my three year old. I still need to add one to my collection... saving that contribution for a later quarter