Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fred42]

Very disappointed that after 4 years of the Bolt, GM feels the maximum charging speed for the Lyriq at 150kW adequate.

195 kW charging for the Lyric.

https://www.cadillac.com/content/dam/cadillac/na/us/english/index/vehicles/future-and-concept/show-cars/lyriq-fvp/02-pdfs/my23-lyriq-pdf-brochure-v14-final.pdf

 

[Singuy]

@Troy published his final estimate for Q2:

• 196,000 in Q2 2021 and
• 850,000 in 2021

He says below Wall St estimates because of S/X numbers, as many didn´t take into account X not yet delivered. 3/Y likely small beat.

I personally believe a lot hinges on how many of those pre-produced and stored S they got delivered.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410336946359091209

I doubt it, I did a pretty fast count and it's about 400-500 cars sitting on the lot. Not some game changing number.

 

[FireMedic]

Dublin store is all sold out too.

 

[Criscmt]

Noticed that both my short calls and short puts went and stayed red in the middle of the trading day. They were negative whether Tesla was green, flat and red.

Takeaways?

Volatility spiked. Tomorrow and Friday is going to be bonkers. Hold on to your butts!

I didn’t notice with my positions, mind sharing strikes and expiry?

 

[Singuy]

Dublin store is all sold out too. View attachment 679837View attachment 679838View attachment 679840

What about those cars sitting outside?

 

[FireMedic]

So; I LOVED the yoke. First turn was awkward. But the next 10 minutes we’re pure joy. Did a handful of u turns and lefts/rights. Blinkers took some getting used to. AP engagement was definitely superior to my X.

kids played some beach buggy and def. prefer the yoke. Kids know what’s up!View attachment 679806

Do the wheels turn on the ground while you're playing the game?

Yes. Same as before. Wheels turn in video game play.
The steering controls are connected mechanically to wheels.

 

[FireMedic]

What about those cars sitting outside?

All sold. Asked the salesperson. New orders “hopefully in Q3”

 

[JustSaying]

We'll never know because Tesla does not report P&D by location only by Models S/X and Models 3/Y.....never a split given between Fremont and Shanghai.

EDIT: but you bring up a good point.....maybe the CPCA data are garbage and always have been.

It has been a long time since I audited public companies as a Big 8 public accountant (now 4?) but can't any China production info be gleaned from the "Segment and information about geographic areas" foot note when read in conjunction with other foot notes? I remember many a disclosure checklist item was satisfied with "can be derived" meaning the info was in the statements but the reader had to pull it together. It would seem to me that car production and sales in the US and China by Model/price point is significant to the financial statement users?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

@Troy published his final estimate for Q2:

• 196,000 in Q2 2021 and
• 850,000 in 2021

He says below Wall St estimates because of S/X numbers, as many didn´t take into account X not yet delivered. 3/Y likely small beat. IMHO this might (and should) be seen as a production constraint.

I personally believe a lot hinges on how many of those pre-produced and stored S they got delivered.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410336946359091209

If Troy's off again by 10% (which is definitely think it's a possibility, though a 7-8% is probably more likely)...........can we all agree to not post his estimates again? Will be pretty clear that Troy's method doesn't work and won't work going forward if he's off by 5% or more again.

To be clear, I think he's wrong and I think he's method of determining his numbers are outdated and he also admits to going with his gut on some of the numbers which always means emotion is involved.

 

[Tslynk67]

So; I LOVED the yoke. First turn was awkward. But the next 10 minutes we’re pure joy. Did a handful of u turns and lefts/rights. Blinkers took some getting used to. AP engagement was definitely superior to my X.

kids played some beach buggy and def. prefer the yoke. Kids know what’s up!View attachment 679806

Lovely! Three questions:
- are they using the same tail-lamps as the pre-Plaid, I.e. individual LEDs rather than the contiguous style of 3XY?
- did they change the trunk closing tone to a pleasant chime, like the MX, rather than the nasty beep?
- the brake callipers are painted whiny black, in the same manner as the previous performance red capers?

Cheers

 

[thx1139]

@Troy published his final estimate for Q2:

• 196,000 in Q2 2021 and
• 850,000 in 2021

He says below Wall St estimates because of S/X numbers, as many didn´t take into account X not yet delivered. 3/Y likely small beat. IMHO this might (and should) be seen as a production constraint.

I personally believe a lot hinges on how many of those pre-produced and stored S they got delivered.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410336946359091209

I think his Europe numbers are low.

Reasoning. In the European Registration Wiki if you take April and May numbers for all the countries and use March as a replacement for June you get 34,301. Replace with actual (close to actual) from Norway, Spain and Netherlands changes the number to 35,647. Now if other countries have improvements in June compared to March like Norway, Spain and Netherlands had then the number will be a good deal higher.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410247476972511241

 

[ZeApelido]

Dublin store is all sold out too. View attachment 679837View attachment 679838View attachment 679840

I dunno, that doesn't look like Ireland.

 

[traxila]

Any type of "miss" would certainly put the 50 day MA as support in play. Seeing as the mid-BB the 50 and 200 DMA are all mushed together anywhere from the mid 630s to the mid 620s would be a good buy point if the same old tired FUD is being used and they manage to drive down the SP. As the Accountant has already informed us with his excellent work, there is a good chance of a "miss" on the P and D but blowout numbers for earnings which gives people in the know a chance to benefit from the information asymmetry.

All the best!

 

[The Accountant]

It has been a long time since I audited public companies as a Big 8 public accountant (now 4?) but can't any China production info be gleaned from the "Segment and information about geographic areas" foot note when read in conjunction with other foot notes? I remember many a disclosure checklist item was satisfied with "can be derived" meaning the info was in the statements but the reader had to pull it together. It would seem to me that car production and sales in the US and China by Model/price point is significant to the financial statement users?

There is a segment footnote containing Sales Revenue $ by Geography but not Production by Geography. I will look at the sales information to see if I can validate the CPCA sales numbers. thanks

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Any type of "miss" would certainly put the 50 day MA as support in play. Seeing as the mid-BB the 50 and 200 DMA are all mushed together anywhere from the mid 630s to the mid 620s would be a good buy point if the same old tired FUD is being used and they manage to drive down the SP. As the Accountant has already informed us with his excellent work, there is a good chance of a "miss" on the P and D but blowout numbers for earnings which gives people in the know a chance to benefit from the information asymmetry.

All the best!

View attachment 679846

All i see on this chart is this:

 

[dgodfrey]

195 kW charging for the Lyric.

https://www.cadillac.com/content/dam/cadillac/na/us/english/index/vehicles/future-and-concept/show-cars/lyriq-fvp/02-pdfs/my23-lyriq-pdf-brochure-v14-final.pdf

Thanks for the clarification. I pulled it from here a while back. Evidently GM upped their specs since then.

Quick Look At Cadillac LYRIQ Specs And Battery

GM has just unveiled the show-car prototype of Cadillac LYRIQ, an all-electric SUV which is expected on the market in late 2022 as 2023 model year.

insideevs.com

 

[hobbes]

If Troy's off again by 10% (which is definitely think it's a possibility, though a 7-8% is probably more likely)...........can we all agree to not post his estimates again? Will be pretty clear that Troy's method doesn't work and won't work going forward if he's off by 5% or more again.

To be clear, I think he's wrong and I think he's method of determining his numbers are outdated and he also admits to going with his gut on some of the numbers which always means emotion is involved.

Those are estimates. Estimates always have an error margin. If we had someone who is systematically better at estimating than Troy, I´d be happy to post those numbers instead (I´d actually like to hear your estimates ). Since we don´t, his numbers are one of the sources that are valuable along with Rob´s, for example (he is at 203,000, he has a completely different approach starting at production and then correcting for inventory changes which makes the two approaches complentary - my best guess would be averaging the them).

I really don´t like you trying to talk others into what they should post or not. Leave that to the mods. I will keep posting what I believe is helpful, you can ignore that info or put me on ignore altogether. /rant

 

[jerry33]

What incentive does CNBC have to contradict their FUD headlines (that were paid for by advertising dollars from big oil/big auto etc.), by mentioning a news release from Tesla PR?

Journalism and trust.

 

[JustSaying]

There is a segment footnote containing Sales Revenue $ by Geography but not Production by Geography. I will look at the sales information to see if I can validate the CPCA sales numbers. thanks

Thank You!
Looks like it might require a "simultaneous equation." But with a $12.5 million audit fee that's part of what Pricewaterhouse gets paid for...
(a big smile should be inserted here)