Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

That's what he literally said 1m, 2m, 3 4 5......, he might have meant 1 2 then 4, but that would be my interpretation of what he said instead of posting what he actually said

Thanks. I‘m going to cherry pick my data here and trust his 2021 and 2022 forecast, but not the third year.

I just can’t imagine Elon thinking linearly, it’s so not him. He might well have said those numbers to staff to avoid freaking anybody out with the third doubling, but deep down hopes to keep the sequence geometric. Or in the series of Chinese whispers down the line some linear thinker just went, 1, 2… what comes next, oh it must be 3.

Even if they do slow down, there’s no way Tesla is going to aim below 50% growth rate. 4 then 5 is clearly wrong.

 

[MXWing]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411110400431624192

RIP Alex. Sure wish Happy Gilmore hosted that episode.

The Price is wrong b...!

We just need Elon or Tesla official twitter to quote tweet that...

 

[Paul_SF]

 

[Wicket]

Just a basic question. How complicated would it be for Tesla to have some kind of 'fire detection' system, maybe a thermometer that freaks out over 200 degrees or sudden absurd voltage change in the pack. It would direct you to park safely and exit and the screen could even show how to activate the door handles to exit (as well as unlock the car). Seems a ridiculously cheap investment. If the data is recorded you would also have a timeline of how fast it was going when it apparently started heating up, etc. Even if they don't have a hardware sensor some kind of detector for strange battery data seems an easy OTA.

Or maybe they already have this?

 

[AudubonB]

3M does not belong in that sequence.

Oh, it just Velcroed its way in. Or Scotch Taped its way.

 

[Joshker]

Just a basic question. How complicated would it be for Tesla to have some kind of 'fire detection' system, maybe a thermometer that freaks out over 200 degrees or sudden absurd voltage change in the pack. It would direct you to park safely and exit and the screen could even show how to activate the door handles to exit (as well as unlock the car). Seems a ridiculously cheap investment. If the data is recorded you would also have a timeline of how fast it was going when it apparently started heating up, etc. Even if they don't have a hardware sensor some kind of detector for strange battery data seems an easy OTA.

Or maybe they already have this?

Not a bad idea but likely not needed as Teslas just don’t have a problem with randomly catching on fire.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not a bad idea but likely not needed as Teslas just don’t have a problem with randomly catching on fire.

Yep. Tesla is very data driven. If the data showed this would increase safety, they would likely do it. But the only people I'm aware of that have actually burned in a burning Tesla were first subject to a violent, high-speed crash. In which case I don't see how it would be helpful to direct you to park and actuate the door unlocking mechanism.

 

[Thomas Edison]

Is there a website that lists automakers long term debt, cash on hand, and assets?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Here's a little weekend napkin math for your consumption. I set three scenarios for vehicle production and came up with some estimates of possible share prices by year end using a price/sales multiple.

Bear Case: simply assumes zero production growth through Q4

Base Case: carries through Q2 to Q1 production growth of 14% through Q4

Bull Case: assumes 15% growth in Q3 and 30% growth in Q4. Banks on rapid S/X re-ramp and additional model Y line in Shanghai

Total vehicles produced
Bear Case: 798k
Base Case: 888k
Bull Case: 930k

Big assumption to arrive at revenue numbers is 57,220 rev multiplier. I used Q1 total revenue (10.3b) divided by vehicle production (180k). Quick and dirty.

Total revenue
Bear Case: $45B
Base Case: $50B
Bull Case: $53B

I used a price/sales range of 18, 20, and 30. About 18 p/s ratio was the low point we hit in April. I like a p/s ratio of 20 for Tesla long term. Lastly a p/s ratio of 30 was about the peak we hit at the beginning of the year.

Estimated end of year share price range
Bear Case: $853-$1422
Base Case: $950-$1583
Bull Case: $995-$1659

Lastly below is the corresponding market cap estimates

*Best taken with a grain of salt

 

[Wicket]

Here's a little weekend napkin math for your consumption. I set three scenarios for vehicle production and came up with some estimates of possible share prices by year end using a price/sales multiple.

Bear Case: simply assumes zero production growth through Q4

Base Case: carries through Q2 to Q1 production growth of 14% through Q4

Bull Case: assumes 15% growth in Q3 and 30% growth in Q4. Banks on rapid S/X re-ramp and additional model Y line in Shanghai

View attachment 680941
Total vehicles produced
Bear Case: 798k
Base Case: 888k
Bull Case: 930k

View attachment 680942
Big assumption to arrive at revenue numbers is 57,220 rev multiplier. I used Q1 total revenue (10.3b) divided by vehicle production (180k). Quick and dirty.

Total revenue
Bear Case: $45B
Base Case: $50B
Bull Case: $53B

View attachment 680946
I used a price/sales range of 18, 20, and 30. About 18 p/s ratio was the low point we hit in April. I like a p/s ratio of 20 for Tesla long term. Lastly a p/s ratio of 30 was about the peak we hit at the beginning of the year.

Estimated end of year share price range
Bear Case: $853-$1422
Base Case: $950-$1583
Bull Case: $995-$1659

Lastly below is the corresponding market cap estimates
View attachment 680953

*Best taken with a grain of salt

20 p/s is hard to maintain for a company with 30% gross margin. Netflix is now running at about 7x and has higher terminal net income margins and still decent growth. But p/s only needs to decline slowly and perhaps settle eventually in 4x-5x range (e.g 20% net profit and 25x p/e maybe in 2030+). My expectation is 1T revenue and 4x -7x p/s in 2030 which still allows a 10x from here. That may change as robotaxi comes into better focus.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

20 p/s is hard to maintain for a company with 30% gross margin. Netflix is now running at about 7x and has higher terminal net income margins and still decent growth. But p/s only needs to decline slowly and perhaps settle eventually in 4x-5x range (e.g 20% net profit and 25x p/e maybe in 2030+). My expectation is 1T revenue and 4x -7x p/s in 2030 which still allows a 10x from here. That may change as robotaxi comes into better focus.

I agree. I think over time we will see it decline into the high single digits. My 2030 target is 1T revenue with an ~8x p/s.

 

[printf42]

View attachment 680929

CyberTruck learned Crab walk , now add V2PowerWall(we don’t need stinky V2G), then we killed two “competition” before they were born.

 

[UkNorthampton]

This article doesn’t mention Tesla, but its relevance here should be obvious:

The perils of PR
The perils of PR
Companies can get sucked in to spending too much on their image

“PR expands to fill the budget available.” Same for advertising, sales promotions. Engineers / techies get the crumbs

 

[jw934]

If the data showed this would increase safety, they would likely do it. But the only people I'm aware of that have actually burned in a burning Tesla were first subject to a violent, high-speed crash.

Given all the volume of fraudulent car fire and garage fire insurance claims, as well as arsonists running around, I think Tesla insurance dept probably already asked the feature design dept to consider adding high heat detection as part of 10 seconds of video to be uploaded over the air.

 

[MC3OZ]

Just a basic question. How complicated would it be for Tesla to have some kind of 'fire detection' system, maybe a thermometer that freaks out over 200 degrees or sudden absurd voltage change in the pack. It would direct you to park safely and exit and the screen could even show how to activate the door handles to exit (as well as unlock the car). Seems a ridiculously cheap investment. If the data is recorded you would also have a timeline of how fast it was going when it apparently started heating up, etc. Even if they don't have a hardware sensor some kind of detector for strange battery data seems an easy OTA.

Or maybe they already have this?

I don't know all of the details, but the BMS regulates the state-of-charge and the temperature of the pack.
Tesla typically has detailed logs showing what is happening with the car at anytime.

All parties are innocent until proven guilty, Tesla has not commented so far, they may have some data about problem.
Either more will known soon or this story will quietly disappear.

Car fires happen all the time, statistically EVs catch fire less often.

 

[Prunesquallor]

"Soon".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411280212470366213

 

[Barklikeadog]

Nightly News had a national news story tonight about how many more gallons of water it takes to put on an EV fire than an ICE fire, and therefore the problem fire fighters will face if all the cars on the road in the future are EVs (not enough water to put them all out). No mention that they catch fire much less often to begin with.

Would it still be less often if the avg ev were 12 years old, average price was 18k, and they were driven by more dangerous driver demographics?

Or are you an apples to oranges type?

 

[winfield100]

From their 13-F linked from article:
View attachment 680850

4th column is $ value in 1,000s
5th is shares
The dual entires are under seperate management (9th col)

for those of us not quite up to speed
does this mean they have about $1.1 Billion short, the first 4 rows
about $28.5 Billion in puts next 2 rows
about $29.5 Billion in calls next 2 rows

the puts and calls somehow “balancing out” the first 4 rows

that to me seems a lot of $ especially if an unknown % part is merely leveraged.

can you leverage say 15x so the ~$29 Billion is actually ~$2 Billion so what seems a “safe hedge” is actually quicksand crumbling over a precipice? over even smoke and mirrors

the only real money are the first 4 rows of ~$1.1 Billion ?short? possibly “hypotheticated and re-hypotheticated”. (counterfeited/“nekkid short”) multiple times facing both rising stock price and rumblings of a share dividend so he has to either deliver or fail to deliver FTD.

i apologize as i am just a beginner here, why after an amazing amount of pain i’m only a low 10^6 not mid 10^7 HODL and accumulate kinda investor

it’s a 3 day weekend investment wise

 

[MC3OZ]

Would it still be less often if the avg ev were 12 years old, average price was 18k, and they were driven by more dangerous driver demographics?

Or are you an apples to oranges type?

We can track that as the EV fleet ages, the current stats are the only reliable guide.

As battery technogies improve, the risk of fire will get lower, there is at least 20-30 years of solid improvement. In relative terms EVs are like 1930s ICE vechicles.

For example as EVs more to LFP chemistries, the risk of fire should get lower.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

“PR expands to fill the budget available.” Same for advertising, sales promotions. Engineers / techies get the crumbs

And management! Lots of middle management positions get created. 14 levels of management and those in the middle providing no (perhaps negative) value. Even the largest organisations only need 5 levels of management.