JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Plus the large radius curved panels for SpaceX are quite different and require different machinery than the sharp bends of the Cybertruck.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Seriously, I’ve stopped reading any posts that begin with GoJo or ID.4 in them, both woefully irrelevant to the subject of Tesla.
AquaY
Member
Your numbers completely support my post.Not sure that's a super useful figure today, given 2017 was when they sold like 10% of the cars they're likely to sell this year, and nearly all of them were S/X, and 100% of them were built in California.
Here’s What Tesla’s Current Market Share Looks Like Globally, In the US, In China, and In Europe
We calculate Tesla’s current share of the three main global marketplaces that have adopted green vehicles. Here’s Tesla’s present-day share worldwide, in the US, in Europe, and in China.www.torquenews.com
This has some 2020 figures and suggests:
~98,995 in EU, 28,615 in APAC (non-china), 22,459 in Canada, and 148,349 in China.
US was estimated at 204,000.
Which means while the US remained their biggest single market, it's barely more than 40% of deliveries in 2020... and with Shanghai continuing to ramp that may be dropping further.
I used the numbers that were reported. I did not see these projections for 2020 but they make my point just as well.
The US is Tesla’s #1 market
China is Tesla s # 2 market
The post I made was in response to to a post suggesting that Tesla should not be making the CT first in Austin because the MY is in greater world demand.
Tesla is not shipping cars to China. They are manufacturing them there.
I think model Y will still outsell CT significantly for several reasons:
1. Trucks may hold the top 3 spots in models sold, but truck sales are very concentrated in those particular 3 model ranges, the rest of the “top 20” model list is dominated by SUVs (which come in many more models). For instance going back to 2019 (to eliminate covid impact on sales numbers):
Totals of each type within the Top 20 models of 2019 (USA)
SUVs: 2,858,000 (10 models)
Trucks: 2,586,000 (5 models)
Cars: 1,445,000 (5 models)
2. The Model Y covers nearly every SUV users needs. The CT at the high end covers a lot of truck buyers needs, but still a bit of a gap for some users in terms of range while towing etc, particularly with the cheaper variants.
3. without getting political, I think it’s fair to say that the demographic of the typical truck buyer is slightly less inclined to buy an EV compared to the typical SUV buyer.
I can verify this. I subscribed to FSD on my 2020 LRX and within a minute the upgraded features were available for use.
Unless they unload it for a profit later this quarter, it looks like there will be another impairment in Q3 due to BTC dropping below $30K
Yes, a "paper" loss only, of course so it shouldn't actually have an impact.
Curious: does this affect both GAAP and non-GAAP numbers?
I think when a few cybertrucks get out in the wild and dudes show up at tailgate parties, construction sites and stuff like that and show off people will start to get convinced quickly. But until that happens Im sure you are likely correctly assessing the mindset of the majority.
Didn't it dropped below current level a month ago? So unless it drops below last impairment levels, we shouldn't have any more impairments.
Yes it hit 29,000 during Q2. So far, no impairment charge for Q3
I anticipate that many CT's will be sold to people who would have otherwise bought an SUV from another manufacturer. CT competes with pickups and non-compact SUV's, a huge market.
Exactly. Plus I wouldn't buy SUV or pickup. But I'm really eager to have my CT!
I'm curious, how are the CT body panels bent? Is there a machine identified for this yet?
This is how I imagined the Tesla Network would arrive. They just send a command and it's activated. I cannot wait (even 2 weeks) for that day.
The 10% sale of Bitcoin referred to above occurred in Q1 and was detailed in the 10Q. There's been no further sale of Bitcoin reported for Q2 so far. So unless there's a further sale reported on Monday, we can expect an impairment charge to still apply for Q2.
3rd Gigapress being assembled in Berlin.
Do you even press?
Do you even press?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's called an industrial press brake. I imagine Tesla will modify some of the commercial ones that already exist to tailor it to their specific needs for each sheet panel and automate the process as much as possible. There are automated machines available so it just depends upon whether they see a way to improve what's out there.
There will be a lot of trial and error to get the bends right as it's a little bit of black magic bending cold-rolled stainless steel which has a direction to the grain. The resulting bend angle and spring-back will depend upon, amongst other things, the orientation of the bend to the grain. And I imagine some of the component panels will have bends at nearly right angles on the same panels. There is also- a certain amount of work hardening (strengthening) that happens as the metal is bent and the speed of the operation will impact this as well as the amount of spring back. It gets complicated really quickly (for something that seems as simple as bending sheet steel). Consistent, high quality sheet product will be critical to achieving consistent bend angles and spring back. This is important because they will be in a world of hurt if each panel comes off the brakes slightly different. Tesla is good at solving problems like this but there might be a certain amount of design changes early in the process as they adapt the way the parts are designed to fit together to any particularly stubborn challenges they encounter with either the consistency of the finished panels or the speed at which they can be produced.
I have faith the end product will be in another league compared to traditional trucks in terms of strength and stiffness to weight ratios because the design concept is mind-bogglingly brilliant. I suspect this is what they are working on now to assist the speed of production ramp and iron out the obvious problems before they set the lines up. My biggest concern is simply that it could take a lot of time and effort to refine the production process to the point it's cost-effective. But the best case scenario where the production ramp goes even better than anticipated and they can crank out thousands quickly and at relatively low cost is certainly an exciting possibility. Likely it will be somewhere in the middle. I'm heartened that they will be supplied with the cold-rolled steel from a new, state-of-the-art steel foundry that is nearby. Hopefully the production ramp goes well for their metal suppliers as well. Who knows what kind of new equipment the metal suppliers might be developing to increase quality and reduce costs?
These are particularly exciting times for vehicle manufacturing!
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Expensive things, growing market, digital nomads, home/world education, retirees travelling. Similar to people living on narrowboats, but that's getting harder & more expensive. Electric better for both.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla Semi electric truck is finally nearing production
After years of delays, Tesla is finally getting closer to the start of production of Tesla Semi, its all-electric semi-truck....
electrek.co
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