Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[guidooo]

Tesla is better positioned than the others.

Agree that Tesla is very well positioned, we deviate in opinion also because i don't believe in a the winner takes it all scenario.

They expect the fast charging market to have 1 billion euro revenue in The Netherlands and 3 billion euro in Germany by 2030.

My calculator fails with those high numbers Do think the scale of the transition we are facing is underestimated by many.

What if a good chunk of that goes to Tesla?

Good for stakeholders in Tesla and the mars mission ?

Shell?

Don't expect it, unless Shell sincerely changes it's objectives.

 

[jbcarioca]

I wonder what the impact of opening the supercharger network to all cars will be on the existing fast charging networks:
- Tesla has about 700 supercharger locations in the EU (supercharge.info). No idea how many stalls, but probably at least 12 per location.
- Ionity (the biggest challenger) has 358 locations, with typically 4 stalls (my guestimate).
- FastNed (Fastned) is mainly in the Netherlands, with only 20 150kW locations outside the NL (almost all in Germany), and typically 4 stalls per location.
I’m not aware of any other international fast charging network in the EU, most of the alternatives are local, small and 50kW or lower.
So we have about 9000 Supercharger stalls, 1500 Ionity stalls and 100 FastNed stalls outside NL.
Who will pay an Ionity or FastNed subscription, when a Tesla subscription will give you an order of magnitude more charging possibilities?
Opening up the Supercharger network will have a severe financial impact on the competitors.

I'm sure that is a major issue, for another reason too. In my Tesla experience in the EU, all cross border, non-Tesla options are plentiful but...locations often have one or two chargers. Then the majority of them are single country or regional. Even if the number were not an issue the big problem is all those national options. Totally separate registration, sign-in and payment is usually required. Good luck in many that have only the dominant local language with, sometimes, mandatory payment in a local payment option. European diversity of languages, customs, regulations and procedures all conspire to make traditional pan-Europe road trips a hassle.

Now consider Tesla Superchargers. Zero hassle wherever one goes. In Eastern Europe, where dozens of those odd local networks abound, Superchargers are exactly the same everywhere, only the speeds and the legacy Tesla connector vs CCS vary.

I have travelled via Tesla through countries like Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia. Today Superchargers already have decent coverage in all those plus, soon, coverage including Istanbul and Athens from anywhere in Northern Europe. There will even be access to/from Moscow via Finland, anyway, if not elsewhere.

However Tesla chooses to order interoperability with other brands, the ability to travel throughout the popular routes in mainland Europe will certainly generate more BEV popularity than already is happening.

The largest issue will be how to achieve this profitably for Tesla while avoiding the political minefields that are already evident. Among those difficult issues is the CharIN member conflicts. Tesla can and probably will make certain that they carefully deal with public utilities and electrical suppliers. Those will be easier since Tesla si already registered in EU and UK, but the implementation political issues are crucial. As said elsewhere, adoption of CCS in North America also will end out being a necessity.

I am aware that many Tesla connector aficionados will take umbrage at the previous paragraph. It will happen anyway. Native CCS is not really very cumbersome anyway and has many technical features supporting interoperability and payment options that Tesla connectors do not have. The technical challenge is to make post-sharing Tesla ensures seamless operation. That can be assured by adopting an Apple-style ecosystem so every participant adhere precisely to all Tesla standards. That will allow Supercharger expansion to accelerate.

After that begins in earnest later next year or so, TE will begin to contribute at an accelerating basis while one fo the largest impediments to BEV adoption will begin to fade.

We are on the verge of Tesla becoming a mainstream force.Legacy OEM jingoism will be hard to sustain.

 

[Unpilot]

Have we ever seen such low volume heading into a quarterly earnings report?
Yesterday was about half the 65 day average (which has been falling since the split)

It seems odd there has not been any days this week with any real volume.

 

[redan]

Ron Baron's quarterly update. Big portion of the letter devoted to Elon/Tesla/SpaceX. It's a great read (intro excerpt below):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418187907240767492

https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Letter-from-Ron-6.30.21.pdf

“Why does it need to be like that?” Elon Musk. CEO. Tesla. CEO SpaceX. 2021. Elon Musk is the CEO of two leading “disruptive” technology businesses in which Baron Funds has significant long-term investments. The first is electric vehicle, extended range battery, alternative energy and software business Tesla, Inc. The second is the privately owned rocket ship, launch, and satellite broadband provider Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). We purchased our shares in Tesla from 2014 through 2016 and have since earned realized and unrealized profits of about 14 times the cost of our investment. We have been investing in SpaceX since 2017 and have since about doubled our money. We expect Tesla and SpaceX to each become substantially larger, more profitable, and much more valuable during the next 10 years. We often say, “we invest in people.” Since talent, motivation, integrity, leadership, and heart are difficult for algorithms and most investors to assess, I thought you might find it interesting for me to describe how we think Elon Musk is different than most executives…and part of why we believe that is a good thing…

 

[avoigt]

Todays pre market trading is another fine example of market manipulation

 

[lascavarian]

For those that listen to all sides, Cramer is putting a thesis forward that this 3 day correction has missed the point that those that view Delta as just a flu intend to resume their lives at the same time that the vaccinated intend to do the same. Airlines, thereby, should do well etc. Bull market should resume and interest is likely to rise a bit. YMMV

 

[NicoV]

I'm sure that is a major issue, for another reason too. In my Tesla experience in the EU, all cross border, non-Tesla options are plentiful but...locations often have one or two chargers. Then the majority of them are single country or regional. Even if the number were not an issue the big problem is all those national options.

Absolutely! I think only Ionity has a truely European wide presence. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any financial data on Ionity so as to assess their viability. But I found this: Is Ionity looking for external investment? - electrive.com

It seems like some of the investors in Ionity (in particular Volkswagen) are not happy with the slow expansion speed of Ionity and are looking at others ways to expand the fast charging possibilities.

 

[UltradoomY]

Ron Baron's quarterly update. Big portion of the letter devoted to Elon/Tesla/SpaceX. It's a great read (intro excerpt below):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418187907240767492

https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Letter-from-Ron-6.30.21.pdf

“Why does it need to be like that?” Elon Musk. CEO. Tesla. CEO SpaceX. 2021. Elon Musk is the CEO of two leading “disruptive” technology businesses in which Baron Funds has significant long-term investments. The first is electric vehicle, extended range battery, alternative energy and software business Tesla, Inc. The second is the privately owned rocket ship, launch, and satellite broadband provider Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). We purchased our shares in Tesla from 2014 through 2016 and have since earned realized and unrealized profits of about 14 times the cost of our investment. We have been investing in SpaceX since 2017 and have since about doubled our money. We expect Tesla and SpaceX to each become substantially larger, more profitable, and much more valuable during the next 10 years. We often say, “we invest in people.” Since talent, motivation, integrity, leadership, and heart are difficult for algorithms and most investors to assess, I thought you might find it interesting for me to describe how we think Elon Musk is different than most executives…and part of why we believe that is a good thing…

For anyone with an investment in TSLA this is an important read. Solidifies the reasoning behind "Elon Time" and why it matters.
Really appreciate posting this @redan thanks!

 

[Criscmt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418135534271045635

Something off with the data, or MY production.
Likely not chip shortage, given M3 numbers are not that low?

 

[redan]

For anyone with an investment in TSLA this is an important read. Solidifies the reasoning behind "Elon Time" and why it matters.
Really appreciate posting this @redan thanks!

My favorite quote from the letter, while referencing SpaceX, perhaps gives some insight into Tesla's unique relationship with China:

What’s so special about SpaceX? Figuring out how to make space rockets reusable is the short answer. Since the 1960s, our government had been charged hundreds of millions of dollars for every rocket launched only to watch that rocket burn up in the atmosphere after being used only once! “Insane!” “Impossible!” was the reaction of the cost/plus aerospace industry to Elon’s efforts to create a reusable rocket! China’s government complimented Elon in a Wall Street Journal editorial after a SpaceX rocket’s successful landing, chiding its own government’s engineers. “You have been beaten to accomplish this incredible feat not by a nation state but by an individual! Congratulations, Elon Musk. China, we are 10 years behind.”

In 2021, SpaceX will provide 80% of the launches from Planet Earth to space. China will provide 12%!

 

[Beltsbear]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418049110922330120

There was a check sheet posted on twitter, now I can't find it. It could have been deleted. It had six check boxes, two categories with three options. one of the options was 'driven or tested', the other was 'not contaminated'. The implication is that there were some faulty parts. Still surprised at the amount of time these vehicles have been there. My personal opinion is that there were multiple issues even beyond the check sheet, and they are waiting to have ample parts before they continue. Still this is a huge loss as the rate of S production remains very low.

 

[Big Time]

Im not in love with those Shanghai numbers. Hopefully something is off

 

[Knightshade]

Im not in love with those Shanghai numbers. Hopefully something is off

Is that actually production- or local registration? Aren't they supposedly exporting Ys now?

(TBH there's so many seemingly confusing/conflicting sources about china output it's hard to keep track who is claiming what and on what basis)

 

[Big Time]

Is that actually production- or local registration? Aren't they supposedly exporting Ys now?

(TBH there's so many seemingly confusing/conflicting sources about china output it's hard to keep track who is claiming what and on what basis)

I agree. I feel as if last time that was the same problem. The exports aren’t included. Let’s hope that’s the case

 

[gene]

I take this as good news as to Tesla's efficiencies. Or maybe bad news dare I say "low demand?"

After getting four different quotes for a 4kw PV system of which 2 were local installers and added to that was SunRun and Tesla. The Tesla system was the only one to include a battery and was only $3k more than the least expensive competitor (with no battery) and the same price as solar only (no battery) with the most expensive competitor.

The interesting news is that it has been only two weeks since she made the order online. Permitting is already done and install is scheduled for one week. That is faster than most for sure. I take this as good news.

Irony here is that she is paying for it with SPWR profits.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You know legacy OEM is scared out of their pants when they start posting about Tesla. Today..Mercedes-Benz taking a page out of Mike Levine's playbook:

 

[GrandEnigma]

I take this as good news as to Tesla's efficiencies. Or maybe bad news dare I say "low demand?"

After getting four different quotes for a 4kw PV system of which 2 were local installers and added to that was SunRun and Tesla. The Tesla system was the only one to include a battery and was only $3k more than the least expensive competitor (with no battery) and the same price as solar only (no battery) with the most expensive competitor.

The interesting news is that it has been only two weeks since she made the order online. Permitting is already done and install is scheduled for one week. That is faster than most for sure. I take this as good news.

Irony here is that she is paying for it with SPWR profits.

I am on to month 5 for my system, permitting went through about 2wks ago, no word yet on install timeline.

 

[elasalle]

You know legacy OEM is scared out of their pants when they start posting about Tesla. Today..Mercedes-Benz taking a page out of Mike Levine's playbook:

View attachment 686912

everyone knows that to get some eyeballs, then need to mention Tesla or EM

 

[Singuy]

everyone knows that to get some eyeballs, then need to mention Tesla or EM

Yup, news article is more interested in drama than actual substance. So talking sh#t about Tesla is then right PR move.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

After getting four different quotes for a 4kw PV system of which 2 were local installers and added to that was SunRun and Tesla. The Tesla system was the only one to include a battery and was only $3k more than the least expensive competitor (with no battery) and the same price as solar only (no battery) with the most expensive competitor.

The interesting news is that it has been only two weeks since she made the order online. Permitting is already done and install is scheduled for one week. That is faster than most for sure. I take this as good news.

Irony here is that she is paying for it with SPWR profits.

This seems to be Tesla's new placeholder solar strategy. While sales cost remains insanely high marketwide, they've pivoted to a pure solar+battery model where they will usually pencil out to a similar price point as the solar-only competition.

Basically they're replacing $5k in sales cost with a $7k battery. Pretty good deal for both sides IMO, though I'd like to see their model grow more flexible and continue offering standalone solar. At least while Powerwall prices are so high.

I think Elon got impatient with the marketplace's inability to scale, so he's jumping ahead a few years and prepping for residential solar aggregation. Not a terrible idea for the time being. Another indicator of how out in front the Energy side is.

Fast forward to 2024 and there are new FERC rules in place allowing for aggregated distributed storage to buy and sell into grids. Not only will these Tesla installs be ready to go, but they've go "market leader" Sunrun out there installing Powerwalls for them as well.

Think of that dynamic. A Sunrun lease owner also has a Powerwall. The Tesla virtual utility goes live. Who do we think is taking the lion's share of those service fees? Certainly not Sunrun. Yet another reason to avoid solar leases like the plague.