Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

I don't see a good reason to discontinue the S and X. Doing so just means more gas guzzling big SUVs and sports cars will get sold. By all means stop updating them, but even if Tesla waits another 5 years to do a big S/X refresh, then thats a long period of time in which they are not sidetracked by that model.
People who already own a 3 or a Y, but come into more money / bigger family should have an option to stick with tesla.

Plus I think all companies benefit from having a low volume high price product in the lineup. That means new tech, new batteries, new ideas can be trialed on the S or X and then ported over to the main sellers once they are proven.

I doubt much board-level time was spent on the S or X from 2015-2019.

Ya, more Tesla's in more segments, not less.

 

[Krugerrand]

We know that. The 3/Y make Tesla profitable. But the amount of extra profit from normal S/X production would be in the hundreds of millions per quarter. So we really want that. Also every sale of the S/X is a little more salt against Mercedes who has sold zero EV's in the USA in 2020.

But the extra profit from those models isn’t necessary. That’s the whole point. The resources; engineering manpower at the top of the list, can be better spent accelerating the mission via other projects. S & X are now fluff. The mission is more important than the margins. That’s the whole point.

Tesla doesn’t need to rub anymore salt against Mercedes or BMW or whomever. Those companies are already in decline and on their way out if and until they get their heads out of the Boston cream pie.

Once again people, even forward thinking people, want to cling to the familiar.

Wait for it. I’m calling it and currently I’m on a real run of correct calls.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Those two models have served their purpose to the mission and I’d like this to be the last refresh done on these two models. I’d like to see them discontinued and become collectors items before the end of this decade. While they have excellent margins, they do consume considerable company resources in all areas.

Plaid S is worth it in free advertising alone. With folks like Brooks from Drag Times about to embarrass the world's fastest supercars with his 5-seat family sedan.

In the mind of the public:

• EVs = Fast
• Gas = Slow

This translates directly into sales

• EVs = Yum
• Gas = Yuck

That's worth the effort.

 

[The Accountant]

Something off with the data, or MY production.
Likely not chip shortage, given M3 numbers are not that low?

Im not in love with those Shanghai numbers. Hopefully something is off

Keep in mind that Shanghai was closed for 5 days in June; in addition, May had a good bit over overtime.

Looking at the numbers, 30k produced with 5 days off is actually pretty strong.
The recent drone videos tell me that we will see a nice increase in production for Q3.

Shanghai produced 98k in Q2 but delivered only 92k. They had 6k cars in transit or in inventory.
With the pick up in Q3 production and these cars in transit, we should see a very stroing Q3 from Shanghai.

 

[woodisgood]

I’m going to argue that the cachet of the S/X is needed for just a bit longer, and hence why Tesla ultimately decided to refresh even though the profits aren’t needed and engineering resources are better diverted to other projects.

Electrification still needs that aspirational element to it. If Tesla suddenly stops having options for the celebs/influencers/wealthy, then the allure of the vehicles suddenly becomes less for a significant part of the population. This does matter. S/X keeps other brands from sneaking into hearts/minds. I’d argue without them, 3/Y will start to feel a little like Prius/Rav4 - the practical, common, obvious choice that is unlinked to anything aspirational.

 

[Krugerrand]

Plaid S is worth it in free advertising alone. With folks like Brooks from Drag Times about to embarrass the world's fastest supercars with his 5-seat family sedan.

In the mind of the public:

• EVs = Fast
• Gas = Slow

This translates directly into sales

• EVs = Yum
• Gas = Yuck

That's worth the effort.

For how long? I didn’t say tomorrow. I said by the end of the decade. That’s 9 years from now. Has anyone thought where this whole thing will be in 9 years?? No, clearly not by the let’s turn Tesla into a traditional OEM exercise.

We’re all aware that half the planet is burning while the other half is under water, right!? Our concern is thusly to keep the OEM status quo with a lineup of vehicles in all segments and make sure Tesla has bragging rights?

Here’s the thing, by the very nature of Tesla’s rate of innovation and lack of following traditions, all their vehicles will remain the top in whatever segments exist going forward, which I expect to seriously begin to morph.

I expect Tesla to continue to create a new path forward. I expect by the end of the decade to have lost some traditional OEMs and a larger group of the population to finally realize we’re up a chocolate sundae creek without a garnishing cherry. And I expect my disappointment in people in general to continue.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ya, more Tesla's in more segments, not less.

I disagreed because I actually think there needs to be less segments. People need to start understanding that the individual selfishness gets us all dead. We need to come together, consolidate, and get rid of the excess, the wastefulness and repetition of the same thing just with a different badge on it. And no, I’m not suggesting monopolies. There is a balance that can be struck.

Prime example - Tesla creating a Supercharger Network that ALL vehicles can charge on. Tesla having tried to create a singular, universal charging standard. I’m all for uniqueness and individuality as long as there’s a purpose that helps the whole. Having a common constructed worldwide electric grid would be better than what we have now.

 

[Tyler34]

Blah blah blah Tesla bans mercedes from their supercharging network for talking. Looks who is laughing now?

So what you're saying is that there will be literally 10s of less cars at the superchargers once the ban goes through.

 

[Krugerrand]

I’m going to argue that the cachet of the S/X is needed for just a bit longer, and hence why Tesla ultimately decided to refresh even though the profits aren’t needed and engineering resources are better diverted to other projects.

Electrification still needs that aspirational element to it. If Tesla suddenly stops having options for the celebs/influencers/wealthy, then the allure of the vehicles suddenly becomes less for a significant part of the population. This does matter. S/X keeps other brands from sneaking into hearts/minds. I’d argue without them, 3/Y will start to feel a little like Prius/Rav4 - the practical, common, obvious choice that is unlinked to anything aspirational.

Again, I said by the end of the decade. That’s 9 years from now. So no need to argue for cachet for a bit longer.

 

[elasalle]

I disagreed because I actually think there needs to be less segments. People need to start understanding that the individual selfishness gets us all dead. We need to come together, consolidate, and get rid of the excess, the wastefulness and repetition of the same thing just with a different badge on it. And no, I’m not suggesting monopolies. There is a balance that can be struck.

Prime example - Tesla creating a Supercharger Network that ALL vehicles can charge on. Tesla having tried to create a singular, universal charging standard. I’m all for uniqueness and individuality as long as there’s a purpose that helps the whole. Having a common constructed worldwide electric grid would be better than what we have now.

Fair enough,
However customers need choices. We will not be able to change that.
The TAM (total Addressable Market) depends on the # of segments business can support.
High end cars also allow for lot of R&D and bragging rights. If Tesla did not have plaid, taycan would be running circles on the media scape, and that could actually effect the Tesla brand as a whole.

 

[Unpilot]

we’re up a chocolate sundae creek without a garnishing cherry.

Mmm...not bad.

As for Mercedes...well I think they might have something...I mean they did use 2 X's in the name of their power point car.

 

[Joe F]

Seems there's a major DNS outage on the US East. Fidelity down for me.

Downdetector showing most reports are DNS reports.

Good time to go get my hair cut...

 

[woodisgood]

Again, I said by the end of the decade. That’s 9 years from now. So no need to argue for cachet for a bit longer.

I'm not arguing with your point. I think they'll be gone long before this decade is over, and I do think this is the last refresh cycle.

But to me it feels like we're still in a critical time period for electrification in terms of general population sentiment. Not worried for Tesla the company, but there are so many forces trying to delay the mission that we need every last angle to accelerate it, including capitalizing on selfishness, entitlement, and excess.

 

[goinfraftw]

But to me it feels like we're still in a critical time period for electrification in terms of general population sentiment. Not worried for Tesla the company, but there are so many forces trying to delay the mission that we need every last angle to accelerate it, including capitalizing on selfishness, entitlement, and excess.

...how is that accurate?

- Paris Climate Accord: 128 countries
- Infrastructure Bill
- All the countries are moving over to cancelling out carbon emissions
- All the monies are transitioning to (clean) energy
- All the auto manufacturers are literally saying: "yes, EV plz - has batteriez?"
- All the energy companies, that help spur on this mess / progress, are transitioning to solar
- Utilities are like "yes plz, no blackouts + bling bling dolla dolla in t3h margins"

who's left? Bernie Sanders? Mitch McConnell?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Keep in mind that Shanghai was closed for 5 days in June; in addition, May had a good bit over overtime.
View attachment 686927

Looking at the numbers, 30k produced with 5 days off is actually pretty strong.
The recent drone videos tell me that we will see a nice increase in production for Q3.

View attachment 686929

Shanghai produced 98k in Q2 but delivered only 92k. They had 6k cars in transit or in inventory.
With the pick up in Q3 production and these cars in transit, we should see a very stroing Q3 from Shanghai.

Yeah, Moneyball's numbers don't quite align. Here's his tweet history for 2021Q2 MiC #'s:

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC Apr production at 30,494. Model 3: 22,136 Model Y: 8,358 (GASGOO)

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC May production at 36,861 Model 3: 21,692 Model Y: 15,169 (GASGOO)

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC Jun production at 30,896 Model 3: 22,118 Model Y: 8,778 (GASGOO)

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Fair enough,
However customers need choices. We will not be able to change that.
The TAM (total Addressable Market) depends on the # of segments business can support.
High end cars also allow for lot of R&D and bragging rights. If Tesla did not have plaid, taycan would be running circles on the media scape, and that could actually effect the Tesla brand as a whole.

So what I’m suggesting if it’s not clear, is that choices will be more limited than now due to factors like; fewer OEMs, greater apocalyptic type conditions, massive consumer base growth for a much larger Tesla, etc….

The realization of what one MUST choose becomes clear to a larger population decimating the old guard.

We’ll have to see how it plays out but I’m expecting a lot of upheaval and people taken by surprise.

 

[Drumheller]

...how is that accurate?

- Paris Climate Accord: 128 countries
- Infrastructure Bill
- All the countries are moving over to cancelling out carbon emissions
- All the monies are transitioning to (clean) energy
- All the auto manufacturers are literally saying: "yes, EV plz - has batteriez?"
- All the energy companies, that help spur on this mess / progress, are transitioning to solar
- Utilities are like "yes plz, no blackouts + bling bling dolla dolla in t3h margins"

who's left? Bernie Sanders? Mitch McConnell?

There is a lot of talk and posturing by politicians and corporations. Still very little actual action.

 

[goinfraftw]

There is a lot of talk and posturing by politicians ans corporations. Still very little actual action.

Everyone wants to be on the right side of history at this point.

 

[Drumheller]

Everyone wants to be on the right side of history at this point.

If they were serious at this point, we would already see:
- end of fossil fuel subsidies
- implementation of a carbon tax
- subsidies for clean energy significantly expanded.
- an end to the "green hydrogen" lie.
- massive news coverage of man made global warming.

 

[2daMoon]

So what I’m suggesting if it’s not clear, is that choices will be more limited than now due to factors like; fewer OEMs, greater apocalyptic type conditions, massive consumer base growth for a much larger Tesla, etc….

The realization of what one MUST choose becomes clear to a larger population decimating the old guard.

We’ll have to see how it plays out but I’m expecting a lot of upheaval and people taken by surprise.

Autonomous flying cars in five years, with the ability to carry water for fire fighting during idle time from airborne robotaxi duty?

Run this by the Oracle (Mom) and let us know what is really gonna happen.