Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobDickinson]

2021 GMC Sierra 1500 Gets Limited Heated Rear Seat Availability

More chip shortage effects.

gmauthority.com

Gm dropping rear heated seats on multiple models, giving people credits. Chip shortages..

 

[Stretch2727]

I hope by the time Tesla opens the superchargers we have a CCS adaptor for Tesla's in North America. If not the competitors cars have access to many more stations than someone with a Tesla. I agree with Elon that the Tesla connector is superior to the CCS connector so prefer they keep the current connector.

 

[InTheShadows]

Haven’t heard much about Elon’s comments regarding opening SuCs, but from the fragments I heard (while working ) it sounded like he confirmed some speculation here:

1) Rates that reflect vehicle charging rates
2) Tesla app
3) Purchased Adapter

Anything I missed?

Time of use charging rates to help alleviate congestion by encouraging people to charge at off peak times.

 

[InTheShadows]

Hmmm. So adapters secured to the chargers in some way? Sounds rife for theft or vandalism.

Pretty sure I heard (Zach?) mention in the background that they have an anti theft solution.

 

[obie_fl]

.


I think Drew indicated some way of stopping people stealing the adapters... one good solution would be locking the adapter to only work at that site.

Wouldn't stop people from taking them unless it was somehow physically secured. I'm thinking a vending machine connected to the App and you return it to the machine when done for credit or you just buy it.

 

[MXWing]

Um, er, so what? Two of my doctors did their undergrad work at Caltech. That doesn't make them scientists or engineers. It means they are pretty much sure to be quite smart and fairly well educated, as I'm sure Zach is. But Zach's a bean counter. He'll never be CEO. He *should* never be CEO.

That's such an awful and WRONG take.

So you are going to tell Leonard De Vinci which of the 7 areas he is allowed to participate in?

Babe Ruth would have been a Hall of Fame Pitcher if that's what he stuck to. I think you would have forced him to only pitch.

Such small minded thinking. Very gross. Just because you may not be a polymath doesn't mean they don't exist.

Just as one can find economy in engineering, one can find engineering in economy.

 

[RobDickinson]

just chain it to the charger.

 

[Eugene Ash]

A chip fab is $5-10bn plus many hundreds of skilled knowledgeable people to implement it. And then you have to setup whatever production runs you want.

Its likely that one fab wouldnt do all the chips tesla needs (in terms of being suitable), they dont have the MCU chips (those are intel or amd), and they would have to design their own microcontrollers on whatever process they have setup.

At the moment they only have the design for the FSD chip. its unlikely they can for now make this worthwhile

What stops them from implementing other ECUs on that same piece of silicone?

 

[RobDickinson]

What stops them from implementing other ECUs on that same piece of silicone?

As in different chips on the same wafer? Thats possible if they all use the same process. and you can make efficient use of the space

 

[larmor]

Nope.

Use the current app to sign up, and activate a car at a particular charger, cost based on kwh and speed with extra fees for slow cars etc.

USA will need adapters likely placed at the chargers.

And this is an inflection point where Tesla pivots from car manufacturer to energy distributor. Add to this FSD, and charge other cars for the data, AI engine, and dojo, and yield another pivot shift moment.

 

[Nolimits]

Did anyone like that elevator analogy? I thought that was pretty good.

 

[Singuy]

What stops them from implementing other ECUs on that same piece of silicone?

Good silicon is not cheap. A large part of FSD chip not using a lot of power is the process of the node. That process node is more expensive than say a 28nm node or even bigger nodes in which many dumber chips end up on. Only cutting edge chips require cutting edge nodes(not saying 14nm node is cutting edge but it is compared to all the other chips...the AMD chip in the S/X is on a 7nm node, even more money than the FSD chip).

So you don't want to design a dumb chip on cutting edge node, it's a waste of wafer.

 

[Singuy]

I hope by the time Tesla opens the superchargers we have a CCS adaptor for Tesla's in North America. If not the competitors cars have access to many more stations than someone with a Tesla. I agree with Elon that the Tesla connector is superior to the CCS connector so prefer they keep the current connector.

I think by the time Tesla opens their superchargers, all other charging stations become obsolete. Think if Tesla triples their station count than there's no reason to go to any other station.

There is a true cost in going to an unreliable charging network...in which there's a high risk of getting stranded if not careful. Tesla can bankrupt EA if they don't get their S together.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Did anyone like that elevator analogy? I thought that was pretty good.

Yes, excellent example of automated things we take for granted that weren't always that way (and killed people when they were operated by distracted humans).

 

[Bet TSLA]

You continually demonstrate you ignorance and arrogance. Zach is a mechanical engineer who worked (as an engineer) for years at Tesla before returning for a Harvard MBA. Some of the largest automakers on earth are lead by CEO's who are P.Eng's and MBAs. The combination is hard to beat.

You opinion is wrong, as is your insistance on repeating it without new evidence.

Apparently you disagree with Zach as to his own career. Wikipedia has his bio: Zach Kirkhorn - Wikipedia, as does his LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/zachkirkhorn.

Wikipedia says:
Education
From 2002 to 2006, Kirkhorn studied both Economics at The Wharton School and Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics at the University of Pennsylvania as part of the Jerome Fisher Program in Management and Technology. In 2013, he received an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Career
During his studies in 2005, Kirkhorn joined Microsoft as a Financial Analyst Intern. In 2006, he did another 4-month internship at Microsoft as Program Manager Intern. After graduating in 2006, Kirkhorn spent nearly 3 years working at McKinsey & Company as a Senior Business Analyst.

In 2010, Kirkhorn joined Tesla as a Senior Analyst in Finance. In December 2014, he became Director of Finance, and in December 2018 he was appointed as Vice President of Finance. On January 30, 2019, Kirkhorn was announced to replace Deepak Ahuja as Tesla's new CFO on the Q4 Tesla earning call.

So when it comes to ignorance and arrogance, I think you win. This is not "new evidence".

So the fact is that Zach is a bean-counter, no matter how good. He was never an engineer. It is my opinion that that means he will never be CEO of Tesla, and that Elon will have lost his mind if he puts him in that position. It's not possible for him to do the job as it needs to be done for a company like Tesla. He's just great at the job he's doing.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Good silicon is not cheap. A large part of FSD chip not using a lot of power is the process of the node. That process node is more expensive than say a 28nm node or even bigger nodes in which many dumber chips end up on. Only cutting edge chips require cutting edge nodes(not saying 14nm node is cutting edge but it is compared to all the other chips...the AMD chip in the S/X is on a 7nm node, even more money than the FSD chip).

So you don't want to design a dumb chip on cutting edge node, it's a waste of wafer.

What's a few hundred transistors in addition to billions they already have on die? I think most of the effort would be routing these ECUs out, and licensing the ip

 

[redan]

So much good news on the call and in the slide deck. I don't think enough attention has been paid to this update about Shanghai:

China: Shanghai While we experienced minor interruptions due to supply chain challenges and factory upgrades, production in Shanghai remained strong. Per our planned roadmap, we recently introduced a standard range version of Model Y in China, which starts at ¥276,000 post incentives. Due to strong U.S. demand and global average cost optimization, we have completed the transition of Gigafactory Shanghai as the primary vehicle export hub.

 

[RobDickinson]

AFIK Shanghai is now supplying all 3's and Y's to Europe and Australasia etc.

Fremont is not supplying Europe at all. This leaves them to sell at a higher asp in usa.

 

[Knightshade]

2. Seems like the $199 FSD price will be relatively fixed and not increased as it becomes more able. So awesome that he says it's barely worth it now but will be worth it and most everyone will use it. I love everything about that.

Elon explicitly said the price was probably wrong and likely subject to change.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So much good news on the call and in the slide deck. I don't think enough attention has been paid to this update about Shanghai:

China: Shanghai While we experienced minor interruptions due to supply chain challenges and factory upgrades, production in Shanghai remained strong. Per our planned roadmap, we recently introduced a standard range version of Model Y in China, which starts at ¥276,000 post incentives. Due to strong U.S. demand and global average cost optimization, we have completed the transition of Gigafactory Shanghai as the primary vehicle export hub.

That's a good point. Seems like even more operational margin expansion in store for Q3....even if they did the same amount of P/D. This is because Giga China takes over as the export hub where every 3/Y is cheaper to produce. Meanwhile, all Fremont 3/Y production goes to the US where it's cheaper logistic costs than sending 3's on a boat over to Europe.

Also, based on what Carson/Bill on twitter were saying, Tesla was importing batteries to Fremont from China. Now that China is the export hub, saves on them sending extra battery supply to Fremont from China. So more operational/logistics savings.