Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Something to ponder as a way to discern the vulnerability of the world’s auto makers to the ongoing “chip” shortage:

Is there a reasonable way to calculate how many chips a particular model, line, or company uses per vehicle? Now, even I know that amassing all chips as the same, so they equally can be counted, is as appropriate as saying that all words are the same because they all use letters, but whether they are memory chips or GPUs or microprocessors or shape-shifting time travel-enablers - can one say that Company X’s vehicles or line of autos is more or less vulnerable to such a shortage than are Company Y’s?

Another thing to ponder is that it's the sub-system suppliers as well as OEMs. They get to choose which customers to supply (bidding war/minimum buys etc).

I've heard that some of the chip lines are gone forever. Commodity chips with little profit when running near full capacity made no sense when demand fell. Therefore some lines reconfigured or retired. The car designs / parts bin / long-term sub-system purchase agreements are irrelevant if one key part is missing.

For want of a chip the injector was lost.
For want of an injector the engine was lost.
For want of an engine the car was lost.
For want of a car the sale was lost.
For want of a sale the oil was lost.
For want of the oil the pollution was lost.
And all for the want of a microprocessor.

 

[Krugerrand]

Haha love it. Should be able to figure out what the car thats charging is too from the vin.

"Welcome to tesla Superchargers"

"We see you are in a /chevy bolt/ , please take care charging, fire service is available on 911, also the Tesla model 3 has 205miles more range and a 0-60 of just 3.4s, you could also save yourself 36 minutes on this charge session"

"Upgrade now and accept a trade in of $14,448 on your Chevy Bolt!, click accept to continue"

That is so Bladerunner.

 

[elasalle]

Oh .. where is that mythical 100$ day

 

[Atomsla]

I've seen some really good quarters with no price reaction or a dive down the following day(s), but I have to say this premarket price action surprises me. These are extremely good quarterly results and prospects. Perhaps it is the lower short interest, and we will indeed see a rise over the coming weeks as some posters have mentioned here. I hope so, because I can't fathom what it would take otherwise.

 

[NicoV]

Sure, same problem in Europe - I have a HPWC that will not work with my pending Plaid (which I assume will be CCS, not Type 2)

It’s not sure the new EU Model S will have a native CSS port, the charging port seems to be the same size as the old Model S. I hope they change it to native CSS though, I think they could by reorganizing the space in the rear light block (without needing different body panels).
Note that a native CSS port will allow charging via Type 2 AC (e.g. Model 3), so no need to change your HPWC. You’ll have to try out different chargers to be sure that there are no unexpected compatibility problems though, I volunteer to try out my charger on your Plaid S

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol...Cramer poo pooing TSLAs results. But GE has "overcome extraordinary difficulty" in supply issues.

 

[Wicket]

I'm gonna stick my neck out and wager that regular hours behaves differently than pre-market under the theory that most of the money that relies on actual financial spreadsheeting might be institutional and waiting for it market hours on purely methodological grounds. But to be honest this is remarkably perplexing who is hitting the sell button on the information we received but was optimistic enough to be in the stock beforehand. I mean what was the bad news? Delay of semi? Some worries elaborated about calendaring rolls?

But then again it all makes sense. AMC is only worth 20B so how can Tesla possibly justify even being a positive number? The screens in the model S don't even compete they are so tiny.

edit after 9:30am: unbelievable.

 

[Krugerrand]

End of 2022 Tesla aims to do 100GWh/y rate. Let’s assume 70KWh/car for Model Y. That’s 1.4M cars/year rate? Just Nickel which should only be going into cars as storage is better served using LFP. And some LFP for short range versions of cars. Plus whatever they ramp during 2023. Plus whatever suppliers ramp.

This is pretty insane numbers.

Are they intending to go for more than 100% growth in 2023? Will 2023 be the year Tesla finally have all the pieces in place and can liftoff? Guess it will be another 1.5years of markets not understanding the bull thesis before it finally becomes obvious that even CNBS will be able to see what 30% margins, 50-100% growth/year implies.

I don’t ever see ‘all the pieces’ in place simply because every single time it looks like it’s about to happen, Tesla/Elon add something new to the platter. It’s never ending.

They could just be making ‘regular’ EVs, but noooooooo. We have to invent a new way to make the butt end of the car in two pieces. But noooooo. Now it has to be a single piece and the front end also has to be done in one piece and we need to invent the machines to do that. But noooooo. Now we have to make the battery structural and invent a new battery can and how parts of the battery can innards are made. But nooooooo, now we have to invent another way to make vehicles that includes bulletproof SS body panels bent instead of stamped and new industrial machines invent and entirely new assembly processes. But noooooo…

This happens at every Elon company for every single product and service. There’s always a better, more efficient, cost friendly, awesomeness around the corner. I’m quite sure every single sentence from the voices inside his head start with; Wouldn’t it be cool if -

It’s both frustrating and fascinating. It even happens at every earnings call; this quarter everything will have righted itself, no one timers, no something WS can go on about, but noooooooo. Let’s add Bitcoin, subscription model that’s not actually ready for prime time because the product it’s meant for isn’t quite there yet, everybody gets Supercharging but not until some stuff is ironed out, how about the deferred revenue, and when’s ‘the’ compensation package complete and will there be a new one, and we’re growing fast but being impeded by potato chips and cans of soda and eviction permits and smart people making dumb profession choices and it literally will never, ever, ever come to an end. As a completist this is sleep disturbing to me.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wow, the reaction from the Bloomberg/CNBC crowd this morning is....."Meh". Hilarious. Cramer actually snuck in a demand question!

The implications of 1Q and 2Q could not be more clear.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Don't be too fussed if Tesla does not leap up at market open. The news takes a while to sink in. Not everyone has cleared their Tuesday morning schedule to check out Teslas latest quarterly results. Hell... a lot of people ignore quarterly results and only focus on yearly results anyway.
Berlin & Texas need to start delivering cars before wall street will really get it. Or their traders need to be able to actually use, and experience a driver-less ride-hail in a Tesla.

From a bear pov there is...

• risk that elon is stopping doing earnings calls (will he jump ship to focus on spacex?)
• semi delayed AGAIN.
• still no sign of roadster
• no guarantee that Berlin and Texas will be completed on time
• volatility of bitcoin
• covid issues threaten the whole market, who is buying a new car in a pandemic?
• 4680s may be harder to finalize than expected.
• FSD may turn out to never work as described.

You and I know that these are all minimal risks compared to the risk of NOT owning Tesla stock, but lets not pretend there are not seemingly-sensible reasons why the market is still in 'wait and see' mode.

Like I say, you need Texas and Berlin finished and ramped before they will get it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This smells to me like big money knew what was coming in 3Q/4Q and didn't think TSLA would do anything momentous before that.

Will the market allow them 2 months to get back from the beach and position themselves before year-end? We shall see.

Something tells me Kenny Griffin has their back.

 

[JustMe]

Don't be too fussed if Tesla does not leap up at market open. The news takes a while to sink in. Not everyone has cleared their Tuesday morning schedule to check out Teslas latest quarterly results. Hell... a lot of people ignore quarterly results and only focus on yearly results anyway.
Berlin & Texas need to start delivering cars before wall street will really get it. Or their traders need to be able to actually use, and experience a driver-less ride-hail in a Tesla.

From a bear pov there is...

• risk that elon is stopping doing earnings calls (will he jump ship to focus on spacex?)
• semi delayed AGAIN.
• still no sign of roadster
• no guarantee that Berlin and Texas will be completed on time
• volatility of bitcoin
• covid issues threaten the whole market, who is buying a new car in a pandemic?
• 4680s may be harder to finalize than expected.
• FSD may turn out to never work as described.

You and I know that these are all minimal risks compared to the risk of NOT owning Tesla stock, but lets not pretend there are not seemingly-sensible reasons why the market is still in 'wait and see' mode.

Like I say, you need Texas and Berlin finished and ramped before they will get it.

But, the margins, Bro!

How is it not screaming obvious to “financial professionals“ that Tesla’s opening up a geyser of cash?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I've seen some really good quarters with no price reaction or a dive down the following day(s), but I have to say this premarket price action surprises me. These are extremely good quarterly results and prospects. Perhaps it is the lower short interest, and we will indeed see a rise over the coming weeks as some posters have mentioned here. I hope so, because I can't fathom what it would take otherwise.

In my opinion, it's going to take Berlin and Austin ramped to decent production numbers of Model Y and Cybertruck. FSD wide release will certainly help. So...in my opinion, Q2 2022 should see big gains in the stick price. Until then I think we will continue to see this short sighted BS from the street.

Hope I'm wrong and we see significant movement sooner, but I have become quite cynical of Wall Street's ability to value TSLA.

Dan

 

[jbcarioca]

End of 2022 Tesla aims to do 100GWh/y rate. Let’s assume 70KWh/car for Model Y. That’s 1.4M cars/year rate? Just Nickel which should only be going into cars as storage is better served using LFP. And some LFP for short range versions of cars. Plus whatever they ramp during 2023. Plus whatever suppliers ramp.

This is pretty insane numbers.

Are they intending to go for more than 100% growth in 2023? Will 2023 be the year Tesla finally have all the pieces in place and can liftoff? Guess it will be another 1.5years of markets not understanding the bull thesis before it finally becomes obvious that even CNBS will be able to see what 30% margins, 50-100% growth/year implies.

Also Elon said any excess beyond needed for vehicles will go to stationary storage, mentioning that there was demand of one million Powerwalls per annum, and 'massive' demand for Megapack. Beyond that the 'estimate' was about 2/3 'iron-based' that would go in stationary, of course, but also the majority of vehicles. The 1/3 of 'nickel-based will go to 'long range high performance' "like ...airplanes". He made it clear that Tesla would not build airplanes, but that 1/3 certainly will go to all the 'high performance' products which I think are also higher cost although they did not explicitly state that. It is important to note that they explicitly said there were to be external suppliers of 4680's; "we are working with partners on 4680's. They are using their core competencies. So far, so good. Tesla is not mandating but there is good progress. 4680's are to be in structural battery packs and will be nickel-based".

All of that suggests that there is more than one supplier building 4680 nickel-based cells, since they clearly said 4680's were to be nickel. That clearly included Panasonic which has stated they are working on 4680, but may include LG and others. Unless something really amazing has happened CATL will continue building 2170 packs for Model 3 and Y during ramp up. CATL is building an 80GWh factory adjacent to Tesla Shanghai, so that implies there might be some gigantic expansion for Tesla there that has been undisclosed. My personal guess is that sometime soon after completion of the CATL plant Tesla will begin expansion of Tesla Energy products in China for domestic use and perhaps export.

Most of us are understating the growth rate for the next two years. This sounds unrealistically bullish but it is not, just look at all the factories expanding and being built and realize that the world is battery constrained!

 

[mrdoubleb]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/osiarb

This is too funny. I know, I know, GAAP profit is not everything, but Tesla just reported as much profit in Q2 as it did in the last 5 quarters added up together.

Analyst: yeah, let's raise the PT by 1.7%

LOL

 

[Unpilot]

Top three headlines on Marketwatch ALL have a negative slant.

Sickening.

 

[EVforLiPo]

We should all embrace the FUD and BUY MORE!

 

[juanmedina]

I am speechless.

 

[thx1139]

In my opinion, it's going to take Berlin and Austin ramped to decent production numbers of Model Y and Cybertruck. FSD wide release will certainly help. So...in my opinion, Q2 2022 should see big gains in the stick price. Until then I think we will continue to see this short sighted BS from the street.

Hope I'm wrong and we see significant movement sooner, but I have become quite cynical of Wall Street's ability to value TSLA.

Dan

I am also starting to believe all they think Austin and Berlin will do is balance out production, not increase. They are thinking Tesla wont have the demand to support new factories. So the same amount of sales will happen in Europe once Berlin is ramped. Just less imports. Same amount of North American sales will occur and Austin will just handle the Y and Fremont the 3/S/X. CyberTruck will be a niche product and sell like the S and X at best. Yes they simply cant see what is right in front of their face.

 

[Mengy]

Huge drop at the open, but probably just closing the gap?

It will be interesting to see where we end today at.