Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

It is time to speak with the voice of a lion; it is time to act.

Siberian wildfires dwarf all others on Earth combined

Smoke just reached the North Pole in a first.

www.google.com

We're basically living the actual plot of Interstellar here, except the part where humanity is magically rescued at the end is really unlikely to happen.

 

[woodisgood]

We're basically living the actual plot of Interstellar here, except the part where humanity is magically rescued at the end is really unlikely to happen.

Is that the one where Matthew McConaughey drives a Lincoln through a wormhole or did I mix up my space movies?

 

[insaneoctane]

Driving home tonight, listening to some Talking Heads (Wild Wild Life if you must know), I was thinking about Tesla insurance and how they can log my driving style. Sure they can log acceleration, braking and lateral Gs, stability control interventions, Wh/mi, frequency of such things, etc...But then I thought that as FSD gets really good, Tesla might be able to measure drivers deviations from what FSD would do in shadow mode vs what the driver actually does. Seems likely that they could find some trends/correlations that help them better predict liability. Just seems like a way to more accurately match insurance costs to risk allowing them to potentially undercut the competition by lots. It is not just about the data in this case, but also about having a "good" AI co-pilot logging when it sees you're doing unusual things.

 

[Sancho]

Breakout day?

 

[Cult Member]

Breakout day?

 

[Tslynk67]

I also returned from a vacation to Lake Garda in Northern Italy a few days ago driving my 2019 Model 3 LR AWD. My take aways:

- On just one drive along the lakeside through the touristiy places, a kid called his dad pointing at my car, "look, it´s a Tesla" and in the next village, a whole group of kids standing at the side of the road broke out in cheers while I was driving by. Similar experiences on other days .

- Driving the car in the mountains is so cool. All one pedal driving, even on 20% downhill slopes. Especially on steep narrow uphills (road not wide enough for two cars driving in opposite directions) when you have to stop, go back to let someone pass - a breeze when all you need is the accelerator and gear switch. You never feel like you waste energy going downhill either.

- Charging is absolutely a non-issue with the pace of Supercharger buildout. V3 makes things much better because you don´t have to share power when stations get crowded. No charging planning needed, just drive as fast as you want and charge when you have to. Charged on a regular outlet at an appartment I rented over night, too, gave the host a tip.

- At the Supercharger on top of Brenner mountain pass (one of the main north-south road connections across the alps) I charged with about 10 other Teslas, while opposite there was another EV charger with only one BMW i3 - the sight of the couple charging there standing in front of their car looking at all the Teslas was quite funny.

- Also on the way, I was surprised the screen never showed an amount to pay at SCs. First I thought it was a bug, later I realized someone I gave my referral to finally got his Tesla (didn´t get any notification), so the trip was pretty much free, too

- Freeway driving is so much less tiring with AP. I used to arrive all tired when driving ICEs and need a day extra just to recover from 1000km driving, not any more!

View attachment 695570

Last two times we went to Italy, the Gotthard tunnel was very congested, so took the mountain pass instead, which is super fun in a Tesla overtaking the super-slow ICE cars on the way up, then when you get to the top, reset your trip meter and watch your battery charge up - 53kms for 0 consumption

 

[aubreymcfato]

(if somebody visit Modena to spend a couple TSLA shares at Osteria Francescana, say something! I will console your loss with a glass of red ;-)

 

[CorneliusXX]

I never said the chip/part supply isn't a problem. Reading their conference call its clear the entire situation is a cluster F. But to say those two companies are picking on Tesla and not treating them fairly is reading way too much into what looks to be a tweet about pushing blame on external factors incase Tesla comes up short or can't exceed peoples wildest expectations. So I'm not going to guess or speculate why Elon picked a few company to call out besides being just informative/perhaps tamper expectations if anything since he has been tweeting supply issues after anyone's bullish sentiment on twitter.

Zooming in on the word "fairly" - that has a lot of latitude in commercial negotiations. The current allocation of chips between Tesla and other customers may be "fair", but if the suppliers know Tesla is going to blame them for missed production there is a good chance they will find a way to make their allocation more "fair" to avoid the public criticism from a voice as powerful as Elon's. So Elon's tweet serves the dual purpose of blaming external factors and creating a hard nosed negotiating position.

Personally I think he cares more about getting chips through any means possible more than setting up excuses for missed expectations - but I guess we'll find out on the next earnings call if there is praise for suppliers helping Tesla through this difficult time.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If I'm understanding you correctly, you are publicly admitting to conspiring to manipulate the options market?

Yes, I know it's a crime that can be difficult to prosecute but admitting to it on a public forum makes it a whole lot easier!

That is accurate.

 

[Robertj]

Giga Berlin formal approval October ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426127922159570946

 

[RobStark]

EV registrations more than double in first half, account for 2.5 percent of U.S. market

Tesla dominates as Ford joins GM in top 3, but results remain far from Biden's 50 percent goal.

www.autonews.com

 

[OrthoSurg]

Driving home tonight, listening to some Talking Heads (Wild Wild Life if you must know), I was thinking about Tesla insurance and how they can log my driving style. Sure they can log acceleration, braking and lateral Gs, stability control interventions, Wh/mi, frequency of such things, etc...But then I thought that as FSD gets really good, Tesla might be able to measure drivers deviations from what FSD would do in shadow mode vs what the driver actually does. Seems likely that they could find some trends/correlations that help them better predict liability. Just seems like a way to more accurately match insurance costs to risk allowing them to potentially undercut the competition by lots. It is not just about the data in this case, but also about having a "good" AI co-pilot logging when it sees you're doing unusual things.

Can’t wait to switch to Tesla insurance when it is available in Canada. Just finished a 1000 miles roadtrip yesterday. I can say that Autopilot saved me 2 speeding tickets. At one point the single lane became a 2 lane highway and the car in front of me was going around 80kph when the limit became 90kph. The car following me overtook me and the car in front of me at probably 125kph because the double lane was ending maybe 300meters further. There was a police officer scanning for speed 150meters away and the guy for caught. I was calmly talking with my wife and the kids while following the other car on autopilot. My driving style completely changed with autopilot. Also, I had to keep my speed in check because we had over 400 miles to do before reaching the next supercharger and I had only my level 2 charging adapter and charged 2 hours during lunch and did not want to stop for another hour.

With my new driving style, Tesla insurance will probably be cheaper. I hope they undercut competition by a lot to get a lot of consumer to switch for that option and get the insurance business of all Tesla owners and increase their profit margins this way.

 

[Tslynk67]

Sicily reported its hottest day ever today at 48.8°C (119.8°F). Oh, wait, that's the highest temperature ever recorded in all of Europe:

Sicily hits 48.8°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in Europe

The highest temperature ever recorded in Europe was reported on 11 August. The town of Syracuse on the Italian island of Sicily reached 48.8°C, 0.8°C higher than the previous European record

www.newscientist.com

So much for a "Mediterranean Climate".

Indeed, this is an issue already affecting the wine production in France - the most obvious impact being that the grapes are sweeter and the alcohol content is rising

Also bringing more voracious mosquitos with it

 

[22522]

I don't know that I would call it short-sighted math as much as I would call it bad judgement. And it looks to me like Elon is letting them know the score. What he did goes against all norms in the legacy auto supply chain because he's acting like Tesla is a major even though they are currently a minor. IMO, it's the equivalent of telling the suppliers that he is confident Tesla will be a dominant automaker and that treating them as a minor player now will have consequences down the road. He's telling them that, for all intents and purposes, Tesla is already a major automaker and they have had fair warning. If they don't recognize that fact now there will be consequences down the road.

I'm all ears if someone has a better theory why he publicly shamed those two by name. I suspect the other suppliers had already seen the wisdom of treating Tesla at least on the same level as the big legacy automakers. And really, if they knew what almost all of us here already know, it would be short-sighted to treat Tesla as less important that the legacy majors. Sometimes old habits are tough to break and require a little wake-up call.

He may be doing this because he has already moved on and he needs them to honor contracts through the transition. A material gap when changing suppliers is bad for factories. Sometimes you design A and B subassemblies and split the business, but that hurts scale...

Also, I understand Continental is a little less arrogant and more transparent on FMAs.

So I think it is a reputation threat during a contractually complete transition - so the theory differentiation is the transition away on those parts is a done deal.

 

[ggies07]

Giga Berlin formal approval October ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426127922159570946

Oktoberfest approval.....bah-hahahaha.

 

[lascavarian]

Zooming in on the word "fairly" - that has a lot of latitude in commercial negotiations. The current allocation of chips between Tesla and other customers may be "fair", but if the suppliers know Tesla is going to blame them for missed production there is a good chance they will find a way to make their allocation more "fair" to avoid the public criticism from a voice as powerful as Elon's. So Elon's tweet serves the dual purpose of blaming external factors and creating a hard nosed negotiating position.

Personally I think he cares more about getting chips through any means possible more than setting up excuses for missed expectations - but I guess we'll find out on the next earnings call if there is praise for suppliers helping Tesla through this difficult time.

My view is that chip suppliers need to prioritize based on most beneficial use. This has a tinge of ESG thinking agreed. Why would a chip supplier not give _all_ chips possible to EV manufacturers over ICE applications?

Prioritize on the most beneficial outcome. EM is making this a topic of discussion which is good and appropriate.

 

[Speedr117]

My view is that chip suppliers need to prioritize based on most beneficial use. This has a tinge of ESG thinking agreed. Why would a chip supplier not give _all_ chips possible to EV manufacturers over ICE applications?

Prioritize on the most beneficial outcome. EM is making this a topic of discussion which is good and appropriate.

Sadly, one word: Money!

 

[lascavarian]

Sadly, one word: Money!

Perhaps but once EV requirements are supplied the shortage still keeps prices high. I don’t see any difference related to dollars. Tesla is happy to pay as long as supply is available as I see it.

The reality is that ICE vehicles are going to inevitably become more expensive so best to raise that cost sooner than later.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Having some exposure to supply chain relating to chips and such-- their perspective would be "Toyota/Lexus buys chips for 10 million cars this year... Tesla is only buying enough for 1 million. (and we know Toyota uses MORE chips per car too so the gap is even larger in terms of dollars spent)-- Thus Toyota gets priority on supply"

It's the same reason Dell can still get GPUs to put in pre-build PCs, but the average consumer, and even large retailers and smaller system integrators, have a much harder time of it. Your biggest customers get priority on supply when you are supply constrained.


That's not a conspiracy, that's math.

Certainly in this case you can call it short sighted math. But they're not making decisions based on "who may be a bigger customer 5-10 years from now"

Heck the guy in charge isn't gonna BE there 5-10 years from now. (Literally in the case of Bosch- their CEO is changing end of the year).

Why is there a chip shortage?

 

[lascavarian]

Seems max pain is at 705ish.