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While NHTSA is getting dunked on, there are 2 agencies involved here - NHTSA and NTSB.

NHTSA is far more level headed compared to NTSB and Elon indicated as much in the past.

This looks like more of NTSB getting it's way / language included in what NHTSA put out. I am not sure if there was a change in guard at NHTSA, but this 5 month old article gives a bit more color.


In any case Tesla has ongoing engagement with these agencies and are obviously aware of what they are looking for. They are developing not just better autopilot, but also a face tracking system as Green has posted in the past.

Even if there is a recall, clearly it's gonna be a software update that was going to happen anyways.

Enjoy the early Thanksgiving sale meanwhile!
 
While the other points are valid I don't think the 10 years are that arbitrary:

To analyze the castings and design their own process can take 2 years easy.
Then they have to wait for their 4-year refresh cycle train to implement the changes. Which results in an average delay of 2 years.
Then as they are conservative and went with the save and small step, it's another 4 years for the real big casting to go into production.

So we're at 8 years base, any issues an 10 years is reasonable.

Additionally they have the issue to actually get access to the required casting machines. Tesla has already ordered 10+ additional GigaPresses, which should block the press production lines for some years.
Also, Tesla has their own metallurgy team that had to develop their own aluminum alloy for the casting process, as something at this scale had not been done before.

While Elon believes "moats are lame" and has declared "all are patent are belong to you", that means Tesla is willing to allow use to those wanting to act in "good faith".

So it may not be so simple for other manufacturers to just "jump in" to the megacasting game without having to develop alloys that perform just as well for the purpose without infringing Tesla's patents, or having to engage Tesla directly.
 
Doesn't look like a mass sell-off to me, the volume's too low. This is shorty piling-in, I feel, emboldened by the FUD, the genera bad macro helping things along

I have no powers of prediction, but would be surprised if we're not back above $700 in the near future

A bit annoying that the MM's got a get-out-of-jail card for their manipulation last Friday

I was wondering why there was no obvious after-market cover of short positions last Friday after they drove it down... now makes sense, they had this up their sleeves.



Substantial Capping/spoofing at $685. Happening now for those with Level II. Sell orders of 3,300 and 1,800 put in and pulled. Drove the price down quickly.

How much can they do this? Is there any limit? Is it a case of doing it a little so they don't get caught, what with it being illegal n all?!
 
They could design a casting that supports EV and ICE the way Tesla’s may support 4680 and 2170. 80% solution.

There's a lot of things legacy auto should be doing right now to increase their odds of survival but designing a mega-casting car platform that can be ICE or EV is not one of them. Even if they started right now, it's not going to hit the market for at least 7 years. And nobody who can read the writing on the wall thinks a car platform designed to accommodate an ICE engine is going to sell well when it's released in 2028 or 2029 (at the earliest). Even if they stick an EV motor in there. The best selling EV's on the market in 2029 will be highly optimized as pure EV's, a dual purpose chassis could not compete with that.

It wouldn't even make sense to convert their most popular ICE cars to take advantage of mega-castings. The presence of an ICE engine in front negates much of the advantage of the front casting and time is running out on ICE sales when the long lead times of introducing mega-castings is considered. Tesla will probably have one-piece castings by then. Remember, Tesla mega-casting achievements were accomplished in half the time it would take any of the big OEM's to make the same changes. That's why legacy auto can't compete going forward - they cannot improve at the same rate that Tesla can improve.

The big OEM's are scrambling to re-imagine who they are and how they function but they are ill-equipped to make the kind of changes they need to get them to where they want to go. None of this is easy although many on-lookers without any large achievements in their own personal history think this should be a piece of cake for an organization with so many resources at their disposal. It's only because they can't appreciate the magnitude of change required.

It's far more difficult to bring a sick person, someone who has smoked a pack a day for 60 years and is 100 pounds overweight to health than it is for a 25 year old to maintain good health from an early age. The large OEM's are that sick and dying 80 year old with cancer that now sees where they went wrong. They can quit smoking, exercise like their life depends upon it (because it does), and start eating freshly sourced organic goodness but it's too late to ever compete with a 25 YO who optimized their health from the beginning. Legacy OEM's are that sick and dying 80 year old. Change is hard.
 

Investigating is a pointless exercise for them because their investigation moves at a fraction of the speed of Tesla FSD improvements. They will be investigating something that no longer exists. Because Tesla has already investigated themselves. Tesla is constantly investigating themselves.

And they have a secret weapon to make their investigation a million times better than that of any government agency. It's comical.
 
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CNBC having a field day today on the NHSTA report. Now showing pictures of a crash to hype the story further.

Watching these clowns is becoming funnier by the year. It used to make me angry now it lightens my day!

It's like the guy behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz, he thinks no one can see him but he left the curtain open. 🤫
 
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Cruise Control or Traffic Aware Cruise Control, which is part of AP?

Where did you get those details?

Saw multiple different people quoting the same breakdown numbers of Cruise Control vs Autopilot. I’ve been actively trying to get ahold of the NHTSA to provide me to the link to the probe directly where it breaks down those numbers so I can verify what I’m seeing online myself. I am about to board a flight though so I not get that response in time