Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LiveLong&Profit]

As a follow up to this, when Chuck tweeted that, he was talking specifically about a special case of his unprotected left turns, where the computer gets confused and ends up turning right instead of left. More FSD Beta 9.2 videos have come out from others that do have some successful unprotected left hand turns. Overall, there are some mistakes here and there, but I believe that Beta 9.2 is overall a good improvement over 9.1. Here are some FSD Beta videos from today:

I have seen a lof of Chuck's videos trying to cross the double(?) highway - he even had one with a drone watching
(I haven't seen the latest videos yet - sry)
The earlier ones were part disappointment and part ... relief!
Some of the attempts at crossing look quite dangerous - people are driving by *fast* in both directions.
I am not sure the self-driving software is confused - likely just cautious.
I had a weird sensation that the car was reacting like this: "You ordered me to cross, but my primary concern is to keep you safe - so I am going to ignore your self-destructive command and just go another way" - 1st law of robotics.

It may turn out that the current progress wrt self-driving will have a rather underestimated and slightly weird effect - to make the roads safer for everyone - even when no autonomous cars are around, by simply re-evaluating some sketchy traffic and roads design!
We know that people are not logical and are reckless too often. And we also know that public works are not always done with respect and caution and careful planning.
It may turn out that self-driving cars will be silent but also very effective criticism of some ill-conceived traffic solutions, simply by refusing to risk the lives of Tesla passengers.

Off course, I will be very impressed if/when the vision-only is good enough to do the crossing under a lot of traffic conditions. But - I think it is a possibillity it only 'dares' to do it in very light traffic conditions. Let's see what happens.
Another way to handle this is as hyper-parameter called a 'risk' setting which the driver could, somewhat, control. Maybe this is what the focus on accelerating was always (also) for: The abillity of self-driving car to merge into traffic - really fast.
A risk setting would have to be very carefully thought out and implemented extremely well in order to guard against too reckless behaviour (and subsequent PR and political backlash) - but, it could perhaps solve the problem of being 'too nice' in fierce traffic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Volume is not that low so far. Almost 7 million in under an hour.

Retail volume (FINRA) wa extremely low on Monday; only problem is they don't tell you that until 5:30 pm ET.

This is all MMs and Hedge funds. If you don't play by their targets (TA), you get bloddy knife hands.

 

[dhrivnak]

keyword "major routes" ... not mountain roads and i dont have a home charger there ...i dont like having to go from mountains back to major routes when on mountain vacation

Many camp sites, restaurants parks and parking lots have power that have allowed us to do dozens of mountain trips.

 

[insaneoctane]

Am I being tinfoily in noting the time proximity between Tesla getting snubbed at Biden's EV symposium, Elon calling them out on it, and an NHTSA investigation coming shortly after?

I doubt it…have you seen this administration throw Tesla a bone yet?

 

[keydiver]

It may turn out that the current progress wrt self-driving will have a rather underestimated and slightly weird effect - to make the roads safer for everyone - even when no autonomous cars are around, by simply re-evaluating some sketchy traffic and roads design!
We know that people are not logical and are reckless too often. And we also know that public works are not always done with respect and caution and careful planning.
It may turn out that self-driving cars will be silent but also very effective criticism of some ill-conceived traffic solutions, simply by refusing to risk the lives of Tesla passengers.

Maybe Tesla could use the AI to upsell: "I'm sorry Dave, but your Model S LR is not quick enough to cross 6 lanes of traffic safely. I suggest a Plaid upgrade."

 

[UncaNed]

Their EPS estimates for 2022 and 2023 are hilariously off......They're underestimating by a factor 3.

Which makes their 12 month PT severely low.

Obviously take this advice with your own risk tolerance because unexpected things can and do happen. But when you see blatant FUD like this combined with estimates by even the Bull analysts that severely under estimate earnings.....it's a clear sign to jump into far out LEAPS. We're clearly getting into 2019 levels of complete disconnect between the stock and estimates put out by analysts with reality from the numbers we crunch here on this forum.

Do you mean far out in expiration date or far out OTM strike price?

 

[elasalle]

So I see we're on track to be kissing 500's by next week.

Need a couple of these as a contrarian indicator, absolute bottom

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Do you mean far out in expiration date or far out OTM strike price?

Far out in terms of expiration date. I wouldn't play anything short term(for like the next quarter or 2). But you can get Jan/March./June 2023 700 or 800 Calls for a fraction of what they were 3 months ago which makes your break even price not even 900-1,000/share. This is beyond silly.

What strike prices you picks, whether they're only slightly OTM or far out of the OTM is up to your risk appetite. But the fact is that by the time Q4 earnings come out, Wall St is going to be forced to stop this nonsense. The gig will be up for Wall St analysts with these low balling EPS estimates for the next 5 years and the chip shortage will have run it's course. Right now most of Wall St is saying Tesla earnings potential is ENTIRELY based on FSD working. Q4 earnings is gonna blow that crap out of the water.

 

[sonofjorel]

"Possibly the best all around car ever made". His expression when launching is hilarious.

He is a tough grader giving the best all around car ever made a 73 out of 100. I’m glad he’s not grading my kids’ assignments!

On a different note IV seems to be going up. I bought some Oct 15 800 calls earlier this morning with the SP around 660. Those calls are now up about 6% with the SP at 657-658.

 

[Unpilot]

So I see we're on track to be kissing 500's by next week.

So I see your on track to give and receive the most disagrees.

 

[SN_8]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427667135707467778

I have wondered why Elon doesn't call BS and drop a few relevant stats on Twitter to set the record straight and take control of the narrative. Is he waiting until AI day? Or is there a better strategy I'm missing?

 

[canoemore]

This drop is making me wonder how the stock price will react to AI day. It's not like people are buying the rumor, and every day it sells off like this it becomes an even more screaming good deal, what with Q3 and Q4 on the horizon. And although we shouldn't expect any magic product reveals on Thursday that juice the stock, surely it's a realistic possibility that we could come away from this week with a much more expansive view of Tesla's potential addressable market...

Who am I kidding. It will probably plummet 20%.

 

[henchman24]

Far out in terms of expiration date. I wouldn't play anything short term(for like the next quarter or 2). But you can get Jan/March./June 2023 700 or 800 Calls for a fraction of what they were 3 months ago which makes your break even price not even 900/share. This is beyond silly.

What strike prices you picks, whether they're only slightly OTM or far out of the OTM is up to your risk appetite. But the fact is that by the time Q4 earnings come out, Wall St is going to be forced to stop this nonsense. The gig will be up for Wall St analysts with these low balling EPS estimates for the next 5 years.

I've loaded 2023 LEAPs at various strikes over the past 5 months between 600-870 for the inevitable surge the stock will have. I'm confident that at least 1200-1300 is in the cards by Jan 2023 (should be by Jan 2022, but different story). My breakevens range from 837 to 1013. Some are pretty decently underwater now, but given the timeframe I feel confident. Especially when the surge happens, IV will crank back up amplifying the gains in 2022.

 

[Jack6591]

I’m sitting at home watching Tom Hanks’ movie “Sully.”

The movie centers on an NTSB investigation…on topic???

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I know. But my impression was that NHTSA was totally onto the TSLAQ types. That they understood what was going on with the ridiculous FUD and were being professional about it. This feels different. I hope I'm wrong.

I too fear that 'dark forces' are gathering around Tesla and Elon.
Various attack vectors have been tried but both Elon and Tesla has proved very nimble and 'anti-fragile'. Elon is the supreme agent of change. A lot of money is invested in no change - or very slow change.
But, it may also be a (hopefully) correct suspicion that Elon will do a *great* show on AI day, and it will be a milestone like Battery Day - and some whales would like to buy before with a rebate. Or both.

 

[Drumheller]

This drop is making me wonder how the stock price will react to AI day. It's not like people are buying the rumor, and every day it sells off like this it becomes an even more screaming good deal, what with Q3 and Q4 on the horizon. And although we shouldn't expect any magic product reveals on Thursday that juice the stock, surely it's a realistic possibility that we could come away from this week with a much more expansive view of Tesla's potential addressable market...

Who am I kidding. It will probably plummet 20%.

I expect the stock price to fall after AI day because people are expecting it to be something it is not. It is likely going to be a nerdy highly technical event aimed at attracting other developers. It isn't for wall street or the general public.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I expect the stock price to fall after AI day because people are expecting it to be something it is not. It is likely going to be a nerdy highly technical event aimed at attracting other developers. It isn't for wall street or the general public.

Well...normally $TSLA runs up prior to an event....this time its been in the red this week...hopefully it's a 'reverse psychology' thing this time

 

[henchman24]

I don't think AI day will really do anything to the stock. Already is being downplayed by Tesla. The hype is under control. Nobody has priced in new markets that are unlikely to be grabbed. Only material impact I see on the stock is if they pull out a surprise product and considering this is recruiting, I don't see that happening.

 

[ammulder]

I have seen a lof of Chuck's videos trying to cross the double(?) highway - he even had one with a drone watching
(I haven't seen the latest videos yet - sry)
The earlier ones were part disappointment and part ... relief!
Some of the attempts at crossing look quite dangerous - people are driving by *fast* in both directions.
I am not sure the self-driving software is confused - likely just cautious.
I had a weird sensation that the car was reacting like this: "You ordered me to cross, but my primary concern is to keep you safe - so I am going to ignore your self-destructive command and just go another way" - 1st law of robotics.

It could be great if it worked this way… I also haven’t watched the latest but the main issue in earlier ones was that it “rerouted” around the block to the same place it was unable to turn before, and then still could t make the turn and looped indefinitely. So it would need to actually choose a different route to succeed. I would be fine if a working reroute (to a light or whatever) came before the ability to make this particular left turn.

 

[Doit]

Was just listening to Ford ex CEO on Squawk Box. He actually stated that if the fix required a new chip, it would be a really big recall not possible with OTA updates. It's not even worth explaining how stupid that is... just pure BS. I guess they couldn't find a GM rep for that story in case the word "recall" or "major problem" came up.

If you meant that former furniture salesman, then no surprise at all. The real surprise is how he got appointed to be Ford CEO in the first place. Years ago I listened to one episode of Freakonomics podcast interviewing him and I was genuinely mortified.

Last year the same host interviewed current GM CEO (Mary Barra) and he joked he had to rush the Ford CEO interview out in case the CEO got fired before the episode went public. Not impressed with Mary Barra either, but she's pretty safe with her golden parachute.