Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LiveLong&Profit]

Since one of the chief complaints registered here is the idea that Tesla seems never to repair its' customer contact, specifically often mentioned is inability to reach a human.
Today while checking on my imminent Model S delivery I had an unprecedented experience.
I called my local Service Center to check. A VRU attended. The VRU greeted me by name and asked if I was checking on my delivery, then transferred em to a human, who answered in less than ten seconds and had all my data at hand, including the expectation that my car would reach the store by the 21st, barring unforeseen events.
That is the first time any company other than my Airline and Hotel preferred vendors, on both of which I have their highest Elite status, have had such easy access. I do not know how the rest of the world may be treated.

This unprecedented experience gives me tentative suspicion that Tesla CRM is being improved.
Has anybody else noted such treatment?
This has the portent of reducing costs, minimizing complaints of inattention plus making the lives of Customer Service people vastly easier.

This could be worth a few basis points on GM, just by reducing costs. It might also make employee retention better by eliminating some of the most frustrating calls.

Thank you - highly interesting information.
I have been in the 'sad but just not critically important' side of the multi-year service debate/discussion - very glad if I am proven wrong by Tesla.

Positive surprise for me if this is part of a pattern. I would not be surprised if the new CRM-system is also developed in-house - in fact I hold it to be likely.
AFAIR Tesla did their own accounting software with a fair piece of logistics on top as well, developed in-house, back in the day of Deepaks reign - think it hails all the way back to ~2014.
Could they have been waiting for a better system all this time - and/or just being starved for development man-power?

 

[JustMe]

This drop is making me wonder how the stock price will react to AI day. It's not like people are buying the rumor, and every day it sells off like this it becomes an even more screaming good deal, what with Q3 and Q4 on the horizon. And although we shouldn't expect any magic product reveals on Thursday that juice the stock, surely it's a realistic possibility that we could come away from this week with a much more expansive view of Tesla's potential addressable market...

Who am I kidding. It will probably plummet 20%.

My expectation is that AI day will not move the stock at all, because very few people will understand the implications of whatever is shown.

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427667135707467778

I have wondered why Elon doesn't call BS and drop a few relevant stats on Twitter to set the record straight and take control of the narrative. Is he waiting until AI day? Or is there a better strategy I'm missing?

I know. Has he tweeted anything about the investigation?

 

[traxila]

I expect the stock price to fall after AI day because people are expecting it to be something it is not. It is likely going to be a nerdy highly technical event aimed at attracting other developers. It isn't for wall street or the general public.

That might make sense... if it was actually going up into the event.

Think at this point TSLA at mercy of the macros and real news regarding actual production or real Tesla movers, like Berlin, Austin and the such. I doubt AI day will have much of an impact either way.

Unbelievably, the current political climate is very hostile to Elon and Tesla and for me this is the most concerning. But I am not that concerned overall....

 

[ammulder]

Agreed. I think the deliverable that builds trust is the historical record or safety history Vs the reasoning.

I think it could be that the NN finds a method of delivering results that has never been recognized by human drivers oblivious to probabilities.

That might get past regulators, but the first fatal crash someone will sue Tesla and demand to know why the car did this or didn’t do that or whatever. With a neural net they have no answer… just because that’s what the weightings gave us, and it’s worked well before. I think people want to assign responsibility to someone or something, and ‘math’ is not a very satisfying cause.

I would expect the car to save the NN logs for a short time before the accident. It should then be possible to see the NN's logic pathway.

But there is no logic pathway in a neural net. There’s only the input pixels and a bunch of layers and weightings and a result. You can’t say ‘why‘ other than that’s what the mathematics produced. It gets so abstract that ‘reasoning’ disappears.

Again, there may be a way around this. Perhaps the govt certifies vehicles with a certain safety record (accidents per million miles or whatever) and Tesla can lean on that… even if we can’t explain this decision we met the safety threshold and we’re sorry but the product is good enough. I wouldn’t enjoy making that argument, but it might be available to them.

Might also be that the action-choosing remains more procedural.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Maybe Tesla could use the AI to upsell: "I'm sorry Dave, but your Model S LR is not quick enough to cross 6 lanes of traffic safely. I suggest a Plaid upgrade."

Hehe - yeah , and if you buy the 'media&more extra pack' it will throw in a fitting qoute when disobeying you!
In this case, Telegraph Road: '6 lanes of traffic, 3 lanes moving slow fast') #8)

 

[generalenthu]

As some of you know, I have been tracking the options positioning for over an year. Tesla is one of those names where options have an inordinate amount of influence on the stock and it makes sense to see whats happening in this space.

One key metric IMO is how many shares are owned (on a net delta basis) via options. I like this metric because anyone having exposure via options is typically a weaker hand than those that outright own stock. When the stock falls, the net ownership rate via options falls and then the selling flattens out.

During the last trip to the 560s in mid may, the ownership rate via options bottomed out at ~55 million shares or ~5.5% of outstanding shares (column '0' below). And most of this exposure at that point is coming from longer dated / DITM calls. This morning we were at the same spot when the stock traded near 650 or so.

While this does not mean we wont go lower, what can be said is, the stock is now in much stronger hands. For reference, we were in ~55 million share range this afternoon. and the closing recent low on 5/19 was at ~54 million shares.

 

[Lessmog]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427667135707467778

I have wondered why Elon doesn't call BS and drop a few relevant stats on Twitter to set the record straight and take control of the narrative. Is he waiting until AI day? Or is there a better strategy I'm missing?

Not even an amateur psychologist:
I suspect Elon has an ingrained deep disdain (if not hatred) for bullies and at the bottom of his heart wants to see them all destroyed, utterly.
I also suspect vengeance will be his. "Soon".

 

[Lessmog]

Thank you - highly interesting information.
I have been in the 'sad but just not critically important' side of the multi-year service debate/discussion - very glad if I am proven wrong by Tesla.

Positive surprise for me if this is part of a pattern. I would not be surprised if the new CRM-system is also developed in-house - in fact I hold it to be likely.
AFAIR Tesla did their own accounting software with a fair piece of logistics on top as well, developed in-house, back in the day of Deepaks reign - think it hails all the way back to ~2014.
Could they have been waiting for a better system all this time - and/or just being starved for development man-power?

Refraining from responding since Tesla Service is a hot potato topic. Biting tongue, as it were. No phone, really? Dead app?

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I don't think AI day will really do anything to the stock. Already is being downplayed by Tesla. The hype is under control. Nobody has priced in new markets that are unlikely to be grabbed. Only material impact I see on the stock is if they pull out a surprise product and considering this is recruiting, I don't see that happening.

I don't think AI Day will have a short term effect.
But I do think it will have a very impactfull long term effect - just like Battery Day. Just a feeling.

My personal belief is that Elon is doubling down on autonomy by essentially conceding a point raised by critics being that self-driving is really, really hard, almost impossible and will require vast advances in AI taking decades.
"Yeah it is truly very hard. On the other hand, when we solve it - and we now know a solid path to getting there - we will not only have self-driving cars, but real-life robots (humanoid androids). And it won't take decades"

The androids won't be demo'ed at AI Day - but Elon can paint a picture with words like few other.

 

[JSML]

That might get past regulators, but the first fatal crash someone will sue Tesla and demand to know why the car did this or didn’t do that or whatever. With a neural net they have no answer… just because that’s what the weightings gave us, and it’s worked well before. I think people want to assign responsibility to someone or something, and ‘math’ is not a very satisfying cause.



But there is no logic pathway in a neural net. There’s only the input pixels and a bunch of layers and weightings and a result. You can’t say ‘why‘ other than that’s what the mathematics produced. It gets so abstract that ‘reasoning’ disappears.

Again, there may be a way around this. Perhaps the govt certifies vehicles with a certain safety record (accidents per million miles or whatever) and Tesla can lean on that… even if we can’t explain this decision we met the safety threshold and we’re sorry but the product is good enough. I wouldn’t enjoy making that argument, but it might be available to them.

Might also be that the action-choosing remains more procedural.

The way forward is probably having customers sign a disclaimer before they are given the product, similar to bungee jumping, jumping off airplanes, or whatever. There will still be lawsuits but those will be settled and Tesla will move forward. If the tobacco industry can navigate the dangerous side of their product, I am sure Tesla can too.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The way forward is probably having customers sign a disclaimer before they are given the product, similar to bungee jumping, jumping off airplanes, or whatever. There will still be lawsuits but those will be settled and Tesla will move forward. If the tobacco industry can navigate the dangerous side of their product, I am sure Tesla can too.

I would actually be ok with Tesla requiring anyone that decides to buy/activate FSD to come into a Tesla location, be clearly read the risks and responsibilities, and required to sign a waiver acknowledging they were fully informed of said risks/responsibilities.

At least for the first couple of years of FSD being released wide until Tesla has a couple years of data.

 

[capster]

So I see we're on track to be kissing 500's by next week.

I don’t think Tesla can execute a 5 for 1 stock dividend that quickly.

 

[henchman24]

I don't think AI Day will have a short term effect.
But I do think it will have a very impactfull long term effect - just like Battery Day. Just a feeling.

My personal belief is that Elon is doubling down on autonomy by essentially conceding a point raised by critics being that self-driving is really, really hard, almost impossible and will require vast advances in AI taking decades.
"Yeah it is truly very hard. On the other hand, when we solve it - and we now know a solid path to getting there - we will not only have self-driving cars, but real-life robots (humanoid androids). And it won't take decades"

The androids won't be demo'ed at AI Day - but Elon can paint a picture with words like few other.

Oh I think AI in general will have a large impact on the company in the future, but until there are more products beyond FSD rolled out, nobody will really be pricing it in. At least a large scale.

 

[Artful Dodger]

... and there's the MA(200)

View attachment 697696

Hedgies "Mission: Accomplished" (via their wholy pwned subsiduaires, the NHTSA and Press). /s

... and SURPRISE! There's the 200-day Moving Average a min b4 the Close:

... Study the Blade.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Felt like i had to do my civil duty and call out CNBS

 

[Curt Renz]

To keep today's drop in perspective:

-4.68% GM
-3.49% F
-2.98% TSLA

 

[SarahsDad]

Especially with TSLA pulling back leading up to AI day, I think we could see a real pop in SP. So much downlplaying , just a ‘recruiting event’, yet there are hints we’ll hear about non-vehicle AI progress. Another Tesla market that analysts will have to factor into the share price. Expecting a 5-10% pop.

 

[Curt Renz]

During today’s trading session, TSLA dipped below both its 50 & 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages). Then it closed above both of them. If it closes above them again tomorrow, that should bolster their significance as support levels.

 

[JSML]

I would actually be ok with Tesla requiring anyone that decides to buy/activate FSD to come into a Tesla location, be clearly read the risks and responsibilities, and required to sign a waiver acknowledging they were fully informed of said risks/responsibilities.

At least for the first couple of years of FSD being released wide until Tesla has a couple years of data.

The waiver would need to include explicit warnings that using the product may result in death. All for the training idea. Training will probably be virtual though.